Highlights of Dexter’s February 2024 report

• Buyers continue to show up! Number of sales in Greater Vancouver were up 45% from January

• Sellers starting to show up, the number of new listings were up 20% from January 

• Bank of Canada continues the holding pattern on its rate – fixed rates declining 

• Sales in West Vancouver up 143% compared to January

At the mid-point of February, this month was as much a dark horse to hit 2,000 sales in Greater Vancouver as Billy Mack was to hit the #1 Christmas Song in Love Actually… and like this movie being 20 years old, the sales and new listings amounts feel like they are from 20 years ago. Lack of buyer and seller engagement continues to be one of the significant stories in the market. And as we’ve said before, Metro Vancouver real estate doesn’t have a speculation problem, it has a holding problem. Buyers are holding real estate and not turning into sellers which results in significantly less homes available for other buyers to purchase. But government policy continues to go after the demand side instead of encouraging supply from the existing home stock. Expecting new home construction to fill the void isn’t enough nor realistic.

With the Bank of Canada holding their rate at 5% at the latest meeting this morning, and with the U.S. holding at 5.5% so far this year, the wait continues as to when we might see the first rate cut. The sentiment is that it’s coming. Canadian and U.S. inflation is showing signs of easing, and with the Canadian economy showing signs of weakness, logic would say that rates should be coming down sooner rather than later. Employment numbers remain relatively flat though which isn’t helping in the obvious decision. Canada will likely wait for our neighbours to the south to make the first move, which may come in June when the U.S. has its more in-depth policy decision meeting.

There were 2,070 properties sold in Greater Vancouver in February after, 1,427 properties sold in January this year. This was a 13% increase from the 1,824 properties sold last year in February. Even with one more day in February this year, there were 103.5 sales per day compared to 96 sales per day last year. So, we can’t fully thank the extra day in the leap year for a better February. There is more buyer engagement. The latter half of the month certainly produced more sales, with the last week of the month showing 116 sales per day. A sign the real estate market is continuing to show more activity. This was also the first month where total sales were over 2,000 since August of last year as the fall suffered the fate of two summer interest rate increases by the Bank of Canada. Optimism is gaining in the market as buyers simply need to move on – literally. 

With this increase in activity, sales in February were 23% below the 10-year average, after sales in January were 22% below the 10-year average with sales in December 37% below the 10-year average and November’s sales at 35% below the 10-year average. We’re still within a slower moving market, and with a few more listings coming on this month, buyers were given opportunity. And moving forward, they should take advantage of it. February isn’t traditionally a strong month for sales, so expect March to produce more sales, even with spring break in the middle of it.

With the increase sales, we saw a drop to 5 months supply of homes overall in Greater Vancouver, falling back from 6 months in January and 7 months supply in December. Vancouver’s West Side dropped down to 6 months supply from 8 in January and Vancouver’s East Side declined to 4 months (a technical seller’s market) from 6 months in January. Vancouver saw fewer new listings in February compared to other areas of the region, while sales were up 53% compared to January on the West Side and 52% on the East Side. West Vancouver produced twice as many sales in February, bringing months supply down to 9 from 21. Detached sales in each of these cities showing more growth than the other sectors, signalling the upper end of the market is coming back perhaps. The perpetually under supplied North Vancouver dropped down to 3 months supply with condos there at 2 months supply. Further east, Burnaby and beyond have 4 months supply of homes available, with the Tri-Cities down to 3 months supply. Maple Ridge is the anomaly with 5 months supply after significant increase in new listings – up 92% compared to February last year and to 54% compared to January. Active listing counts are up 47% compared to this time last year. Buyers, Maple Ridge is where the opportunities are!

Even with the extra day in the month, we only saw 4,651 new listings in Greater Vancouver. This was well above last year’s total of 3,559 new listings, so that’s a good sign that sellers are coming back, perhaps in response to an uptick in buyer activity. Multiple offers have been occurring in the market more than last fall, an encouraging sign for those sellers that were afraid to enter a quiet market.

The challenge of giving up lower mortgage rates continues for many homeowners through, unwilling to enter a higher mortgage rate to make a move. As renewals begin over the next few months and years and as rates start to come down, we’ll see this pent-up supply start to release more into the market. For some sellers, it may be better to take advantage of a lack of listings now and come on the market and work with a mortgage professional to find the right rate for now in anticipation of lower rates in the next few years. Date the rate and marry the house as they say. 

The number of new listings in January were right at the 10-year average, which is an improvement from January where they were 13% below the average and December with the number of new listings in that month being 25% below the 10-year average. 

There were 9,634 active listings in Greater Vancouver at month end, after there being 8,633 active listings in Greater Vancouver at the end of January and 8,283 at the end of February 2023. The detached market overall has come down to 6 months supply from 8, putting it into balanced market territory. Townhomes remain at 4 months supply and condos dropped to 4 months supply from 5 – putting both into seller market conditions. Depending on price point and area though, some may be more in balanced market conditions. Absorption rates for detached were 39% for the month while townhouses and condos were at 48% and 47% respectively. All segments saw lower absorption rates compared to last year in February, because of more new listings this year. As a result, we are seeing a gain in the active listing counts. This could bring more buyers to the market, again, a good sign for sellers.

Will March be the lion or the lamb in the real estate market. With a sizable increase in both sales and new listings in February compared to the previous month, will March continue down that path. After the provincial budget was announced, buyers and sellers will continue to navigate an incredible amount of policy changes by government, with an anti-flipping tax of 20% to start in 2025 introduced by the BC NDP. The likely effect of this in the years to come will be a reduced number of listings as sellers hold on to properties more than they already are. Perhaps we’ll see a push to sell before 2024 ends though. Increased thresholds for the Property Transfer Tax exemptions starting April 1st will help those buyers purchasing up to $835,000 for resale and up to $1.1 million for newly constructed homes. The first-time homebuyer incentive has been discontinued at the federal level, much to the dismay of Dawson Creek which was the only region of B.C. where the program worked. Goodbye to bad legislation. Unfortunately, that was not the same for the Foreign Buyer Ban as the Federal Liberals announced a further two-year extension on that program which will now run until the end of 2026. All of which do not help but hinder supply of homes, which is the biggest challenge in the housing market, ironically identified by the government too. Too bad policy doesn’t align with reality.

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in February were 2,070 - up from 1,427 (45%) in January, up from 1,345 (54%) in December up from 1,824 (13%) in February 2023, down from 3,451 (40%) in February 2022, down from 3,852 (47%) in February 2021, down from 2,185 (5%) in February 2020, up from 1,512 (40%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 9,634 at month end compared to 8,283 at that time last year and 8,633 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 20% compared to January 2024, up 9% compared to February 2023, down 10% compared to February 2022, down 10% compared to February 2021, up 13% compared to February 2020, and up 17% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 45% compared to 37% in January 2024, 51% in February 2023, 62% in February 2022, and 38% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 1.9% and in the last 6 months down 2.1%. Prices appear to be on the upswing after several months of seeing them decline through the fall.

Vancouver Westside: Total Units Sold in February were 374 - up from 245 (53%) in January, up from 235 (59%) in December up from 316 (18%) in February 2023, down from 665 (44%) in February 2022, down from 592 (37%) in February 2021, up from 367 (2%) in February 2020, up from 254 (47%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 2,148 at month end compared to 1,923 at that time last year and 1,963 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 10% compared to January 2024, up 31% compared to February 2023, down 15% compared to February 2022, down 1% compared to February 2021, up 32% compared to February 2020, and up 5% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 6 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 40% compared to 29% in January 2024, 44% in February 2023, 61% in February 2022, and 29% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 4.0% and in the last 6 months down 0.7%.

Vancouver East Side: Total Units Sold in February were 249 - up from 164 (52%) in January, up from 148 (68%) in December up from 198 (26%) in February 2023, down from 359 (31%) in February 2022, down from 408 (39%) in February 2021, up from 243 (2%) in February 2020, up from 166 (50%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 1,109 at month end compared to 900 at that time last year and 990 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 9% compared to January 2024, up 43% compared to February 2023, down 16% compared to February 2022, down 6% compared to February 2021, up 23% compared to February 2020, and up 41% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 46% compared to 33% in January 2024, 52% in February 2023, 55% in February 2022, and 43% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 0.8% and in the last 6 months down 3.5%.

North Vancouver: Total Units Sold in February were 163 - up from 117 (39%) in January, up from 106 (52%) in December up from 1,824 (9%) in February 2023, down from 261 (38%) in February 2022, down from 318 (49%) in February 2021, down from 206 (21%) in February 2020, up from 124 (31%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 489 at month end compared to 436 at that time last year and 414 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 27% compared to January 2024, up 35% compared to February 2023, down 16% compared to February 2022, down 20% compared to February 2021, down 8% compared to February 2020, and up 2% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 48% compared to 43% in January 2024, 59% in February 2023, 64% in February 2022, and 37% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 1.5% and in the last 6 months down 1.8%.

West Vancouver: Total Units Sold in February were 56 - up from 23 (143%) in January, up from 41 (37%) in December up from 43 (30%) in February 2023, down from 80 (30%) in February 2022, down from 102 (45%) in February 2021, down from 57 (2%) in February 2020, up from 39 (44%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 526 at month end compared to 443 at that time last year and 483 at the end of January; New Listings in February were down 5% compared to January 2024, up 11% compared to February 2023, down 21% compared to February 2022, up 6% compared to February 2021, up 19% compared to February 2020, and up 1% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 9 month’s supply from 21 in January (still buyer’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 33% compared to 13% in January 2024, 28% in February 2023, 37% in February 2022, and 23% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is down 3.7% and in the last 6 months down 6.3%. 

Richmond: Total Units Sold in February were 231 - up from 161 (43%) in January, up from 169 (37%) in December up from 227 (2%) in February 2023, down from 340 (30%) in February 2022, down from 453 (49%) in February 2021, down from 253 (9%) in February 2020, up from 155 (49%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 1,088 at month end compared to 1,036 at that time last year and 1,014 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 13% compared to January 2024, up 1% compared to February 2023, down 34% compared to February 2022, down 30% compared to February 2021, down 8% compared to February 2020, and down 2% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 50% compared to 39% in January 2024, 49% in February 2023, 56% in February 2022, and 33% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 2.9% and in the last 6 months down 1.2%.

Burnaby East: Total Units Sold in February were 25 - up from 17 (47%) in January, up from 18 (39%) in December up from 21 (19%) in February 2023, down from 34 (24%) in February 2022, down from 41 (37%) in February 2021, down from 32 (22%) in February 2020, up from 17 (47%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 94 at month end compared to 71 at that time last year and 77 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 20% compared to January 2024, up 200% compared to February 2023, down 7% compared to February 2022, down 6% compared to February 2021, up 58% compared to February 2020, and up 67% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 42% compared to 34% in January 2024, 105% in February 2023, 52% in February 2022, and 47% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 0.2% and in the last 6 months down 2.6%.

Burnaby North: Total Units Sold in February were 121 - up from 88 (38%) in January, up from 91 (33%) in December down from 134 (2%) in February 2023, down from 226 (46%) in February 2022, down from 193 (37%) in February 2021, up from 100 (21%) in February 2020, up from 84 (44%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 447 at month end compared to 380 at that time last year and 387 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 35% compared to January 2024, up 22% compared to February 2023, down 20% compared to February 2022, down 6% compared to February 2021, up 29% compared to February 2020, and up 56% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 49% compared to 48% in January 2024, 66% in February 2023, 72% in February 2022, and 53% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 1.6% and in the last 6 months down 1.7%.

Burnaby South: Total Units Sold in February were 109 - up from 102 (7%) in January, up from 79 (38%) in December down from 118 (8%) in February 2023, down from 200 (45%) in February 2022, down from 201 (46%) in February 2021, up from 105 (4%) in February 2020, up from 83 (31%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 425 at month end compared to 377 at that time last year and 398 at the end of January; New Listings in February were down 2% compared to January 2024, up 1% compared to February 2023, down 27% compared to February 2022, down 23% compared to February 2021, up 9% compared to February 2020, and up 0.5% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 52% compared to 48% in January 2024, 57% in February 2023, 70% in February 2022, and 40% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 1.6% and in the last 6 months down 2.1%.

New Westminster: Total Units Sold in February were 79 - up from 54 (46%) in January, up from 46 (72%) in December up from 66 (20%) in February 2023, down from 159 (50%) in February 2022, down from 164 (52%) in February 2021, down from 90 (12%) in February 2020, up from 63 (25%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 300 at month end compared to 222 at that time last year and 242 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 43% compared to January 2024, up 79% compared to February 2023, down 15% compared to February 2022, down 12% compared to February 2021, up 25% compared to February 2020, and up 16% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 41% compared to 40% in January 2024, 62% in February 2023, 70% in February 2022, and 38% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 0.7% and in the last 6 months down 3.1%.

Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in February were 189 - up from 112 (69%) in January, up from 119 (59%) in December up from 158 (20%) in February 2023, down from 264 (28%) in February 2022, down from 322 (41%) in February 2021, down from 196 (4%) in February 2020, up from 134 (41%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 599 at month end compared to 466 at that time last year and 521 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 29% compared to January 2024, up 56% compared to February 2023, down 17% compared to February 2022, down 9% compared to February 2021, up 13% compared to February 2020, and up 28% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 51% compared to 39% in January 2024, 67% in February 2023, 59% in February 2022, and 46% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 2.4% and in the last 6 months down 1.8%.

Port Moody: Total Units Sold in February were 46 - up from 31 (48%) in January, up from 25 (84%) in December down from 47 (2%) in February 2023, down from 87 (47%) in February 2022, down from 92 (50%) in February 2021, up from 36 (28%) in February 2020, up from 30 (53%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 131 at month end compared to 200 at that time last year and 122 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 47% compared to January 2024, down 11% compared to February 2023, down 32% compared to February 2022, down 38% compared to February 2021, down 26% compared to February 2020, and up 1% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 57% compared to 55% in January 2024, 52% in February 2023, 73% in February 2022, and 40% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 1.0% and in the last 6 months down 2.2%.

Port Coquitlam: Total Units Sold in February were 64 - up from 43 (49%) in January, up from 36 (78%) in December up from 40 (60%) in February 2023, down from 108 (40%) in February 2022, down from 122 (48%) in February 2021, down from 83 (23%) in February 2020, up from 60 (7%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 198 at month end compared to 140 at that time last year and 155 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 104% compared to January 2024, up 71% compared to February 2023, down 3% compared to February 2022, down 13% compared to February 2021, up 17% compared to February 2020, and up 6% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 43% compared to 59% in January 2024, 46% in February 2023, 71% in February 2022, and 43% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 3.2% and in the last 6 months down 1.2%.

Pitt Meadows: Total Units Sold in February were 23 - up from 20 (15%) in January, up from 15 (53%) in February 2023, down from 35 (34%) in February 2022, down from 48 (50%) in February 2021, down from 27 (15%) in February 2020, up from 15 (53%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 64 at month end compared to 62 at that time last year and 57 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 18% compared to January 2024, up 66% compared to February 2023, down 10% compared to February 2022, down 20% compared to February 2021, down 12% compared to February 2020, and up 10% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 51% compared to 52% in January 2024, 55% in February 2023, 70% in February 2022, and 36% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 2.8% and in the last 6 months down 0.5%.

Maple Ridge: Total Units Sold in February were 145 - up from 106 (37%) in January, up from 129 (12%) in February 2023, down from 224 (35%) in February 2022, down from 292 (50%) in February 2021, down from 177 (18%) in February 2020, up from 100 (45%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 678 at month end compared to 462 at that time last year and 563 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 54% compared to January 2024, up 92% compared to February 2023, up 11% compared to February 2022, up 16% compared to February 2021, up 35% compared to February 2020, and up 94% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 36% compared to 40% in January 2024, 62% in February 2023, 62% in February 2022, and 48% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 1.1% and in the last 6 months down 3.6%.

Ladner: Total Units Sold in February were 23 - up from 21 (10%) in January, up from 12 (92%) in December down from 27 (15%) in February 2023, down from 26 (12%) in February 2022, down from 61 (63%) in February 2021, down from 36 (36%) in February 2020, up from 20 (15%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 82 at month end compared to 98 at that time last year and 83 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 20% compared to January 2024, down 39% compared to February 2023, down 35% compared to February 2022, down 55% compared to February 2021, up 45% compared to February 2020, and up 26% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 62% compared to 46% in January 2024, 44% in February 2023, 46% in February 2022, and 40% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 0.4% and in the last 6 months down 5.0%.  

Tsawwassen: Total Units Sold in February were 38 - up from 24 (58%) in January, up from 21 (81%) in December up from 25 (52%) in February 2023, down from 73 (48%) in February 2022, down from 76 (50%) in February 2021, up from 32 (19%) in February 2020, up from 21 (81%) in February 2019; Active Listings were at 156 at month end compared to 146 at that time last year and 139 at the end of January; New Listings in February were up 47% compared to January 2024, up 42% compared to February 2023, down 26% compared to February 2022, down 27% compared to February 2021, up 39% compared to February 2020, and up 36% compared to February 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 51% compared to 47% in January 2024, 47% in February 2023, 72% in February 2022, and 38% in February 2019. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 0.7% and in the last 6 months down 1.4%.

Fraser Valley: Sales in February were up 32% from January and up 38% from February 2023. New listings were up 18% from January and up 44% from February 2023. While the average price was down 0.1% month-over-month, it is up 8% year-over-year. Active listings were up 14% to 5,561 from 4,877 last month but up 26% from February 2023. After seeing steep declines, active listing counts in the region are climbing. It was a very precipitous decline over the last 3 months. Month-over-month, the house price index is up 0.9% and in the last 6 months down 4.2%. 

“There is somewhat of a buzz in the market right now,” said Narinder Bains, Chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “We are seeing new listings come onto the market and REALTORS® continue to see more traffic at open houses, however buyers are still exercising caution. We aren’t out of the woods just yet, but the signs are pointing to a further increase in activity as we head into spring.” 

Highlights of Dexter’s December 2023 Report

• Prices in Greater Vancouver were up 5% in 2023

• Vancouver West Side detached prices showed an increase of 11.4% in 2023

• Total number of New Listings were the lowest since 2001

• Let the interest rate decreases begin

• The Buying signal is now

It would seem interest rates and inflation have made for a bit of a roller coaster ride in real estate with numbers showing we’re likely at the bottom of this rough ride we’ve been on over the last 2 years. And while people will line up for Disney’s roller coaster, buyers and sellers chose to avoid the ride this year and the numbers certainly showed that. With near record lows for the number of new listings and sales volume declines for the second year in a row, the line up is forming for all those buyers and sellers that want to jump on a smoother ride in real estate. While we may have achieved balance in the real estate market by the end of 2023, will that continue in 2024? Once the Bank of Canada starts to decrease its rate, that will bring more buyers off the sidelines and create competition. Fixed rates have already started to decline. So, for those buyers ready to buy now, this is your buying signal. 

January rings in the new year and with that comes every property owner’s assessed value from B.C. Assessment. Perhaps talked about more than new year resolutions as everyone looks to see how their properties scored compared to others. It’s important to remember though that these assessments may not accurately reflect market value and these valuations were done up to July 1, 2023. In the Lower Mainland, the total assessed value of properties was up 3% compared to 2023. With Vancouver seeing a typical property up 4%, one of the highest in the region, along with Burnaby and Coquitlam while most other suburbs were at 2% and municipalities in the Fraser Valley showing a decrease of 2 to 3%. Hope had the highest decline at 13%. BC Assessment Assessor Bryan Murao said, "Most homeowners can expect only modest changes in the range of -5% to +5%. These assessment changes are notably less than previous years."  

At least we beat January, as the 1,345 properties sold in December were higher than the 1,030 sales at the start of 2023 in January. That can be seen as a positive after a year where the real estate market limped along. This after there were 1,702 properties of all types sold in Greater Vancouver in November and 1,996 sales in October. But at least there were more sales this December compared to last year where 1,303 properties sold in the last month of 2022. But still sales in December were 37% below the 10-year average after November’s sales were at 35% below the 10-year average. 

Overall, there were 26,249 sales in 2023 which was down from the 29,227 in 2022, and much less than the 44,944 sales in the fast-paced 2021. Total sales for the year were 23 per cent below the 10-year average. The last two down years were 2018 and 2019 with 25,051 and 25,679 sales respectively in those years.  Like 2022 with the first six months having the majority of sales, 2023 was no different due to interest rate hikes having their way. In the last half of 2023 there were 11,720 sales compared to 10,348 in the last half of 2022. While it’s early to call it, there is a sense of momentum change. What’s needed to help that shift in the market is more listings. There will be real estate transactions in 2024, just how many will be a function of the number of listings that come on. Sellers, buyers are waiting for you!

With current sales, we are in a balanced market with 7 months supply of homes overall in Greater Vancouver, ticking up from 6 months supply in November. With such a low volume of sales, it’s not surprising to see this. Vancouver’s West Side and West Vancouver are showing numbers above 7 months which indicates a buyer’s market. While North Vancouver, Burnaby Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, and Pitt Meadows continue to see the shortage of listings resulting in seller’s market conditions with less than 5 months supply.  

There were only 1,355 new listings in December after 3,440 new listings in November, 4,752 new listings in October, and 5,557 new listings in September, and slightly higher than the number of new listings in December last year at 1,240. For the year, there were 50,883 new listings in Greater Vancouver, which was below the 55,028 in 2022, and 63,711 in 2021. It was also lower than the two previous down years of 2018 and 2019 where there were 55,057 and 53,267 new listings respectively. 

The number of new listings in December dropped to 25% below the 10-year average after being close to or above the average in the last 3 months: 3% below the 10-year average in November, 5% above the average in October and 6% above the average in September. For the year, new listings were 11% below the 10-year average. With these few listings it’s not surprising to see prices climb 5% year-over-year in Greater Vancouver even amid sales that were 23% below the 10-year average. A resilient market indeed.

There were 8,802 active listings in Greater Vancouver at the end of December after November finished with 10,931, compared with 11,599 active listings at the end of October and 11,382 active listings at the end of September. After several listings expired at the end of December, January started with 7,828 active listings. Last year at the end of December there were 7,791 active listings and January 2023 started with 6,853. While we do have more listings to work with currently, there are less than the 10,907 at the end of 2018 and far below the 13,902 active listing at the end of 2012. The detached market overall remains in buyer’s market territory with 9 months supply of inventory but during the month of December the absorption rate was at 91%. Townhomes and condos continue to sit just above 5 months supply of listings on the border of a seller’s market with 106% of new townhome listings selling in December and 104% of condo new listings selling that month.  

We do not have a speculation problem; we have a holding problem. More and more real estate is held instead of sold. After 25 years, the number of listings should be higher, the number of transactions should be higher. With our population growing and demographics shifting to produce more buyers, discouraging homeowners from selling will do more harm than good. The proposed anti-flipping tax tabled by the B.C. NDP along with other demand side policies will produce less listings for buyers and put more pressure on prices to increase. Government needs to entice sellers to come to the market and until policy shifts in that direction, we’ll continue to have a holding problem and with limited supply.

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver: Month-over-month, the house price index is down 2.9% in the last quarter but up 5.0% year-over-year. 

Total Units Sold in December were 1,345 down from 1,702 (21%) in November 2023, down from 1,996 (33%) in October 2023, up from 1,303 (3%) in December 2022, down from 2,737 (51%) in December 2021, down from 3,157 (57%) in December 2020, down from 2,046 (34%) in December 2019, up from 1,094 (23%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 8,802 at month end compared to 7,791 at that time last year and 10,931 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 21% compared to November 2023, down 71% compared to October 2023, up 9% compared to December 2022, down 32% compared to December 2021, down 46% compared to December 2020, down 19% compared to December 2019 and up 7% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 7 month’s supply (balanced to buyer’s market conditions – detached homes up to 9 months supply, a buyer’s market) and sales to listings ratio of 99% compared to 49% in November 2023, 105% in December 2022 and 138% in December 2021. 

Vancouver Westside: The detached home price index was down 2.5% in the last quarter, but up 11.4% over last year – the highest in the region. A sign at how much equity and less reliant on mortgages Vancouver is. Overall, the benchmark home price index in Vancouver’s West Side was up 5.4% while on the East Side it was up 7.4%. West Side condos saw their benchmark price up 1.9% year-over-year – opportunity for some buyers in that market. 

Total Units Sold in December were 235 down from 315 (25%) in November 2023, down from 352 (33%) in October 2023, down from 244 (4%) in December 2022, down from 468 (50%) in December 2021, down from 486 (52%) in December 2020, down from 356 (34%) in December 2019, up from 190 (24%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 1,998 at month end compared to 1,869 at that time last year and 2,432 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 63% compared to November 2023, down 75% compared to October 2023, up 2% compared to December 2022, down 38% compared to December 2021, down 42% compared to December 2020, down 19% compared to December 2019 and down 5% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 9 month’s supply (buyer’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 95% compared to 47% in November 2023, 100% in December 2022 and 118% in December 2021.

Vancouver East Side: The benchmark price index was down 3% in the last quarter but up 7.4% over last year – with detached homes posting a 10.3% year-over-year increase which was second highest in the region. 

Total Units Sold in December were 148 down from 175 (15%) in November 2023, down from 231 (36%) in October 2023, up from 122 (21%) in December 2022, down from 295 (50%) in December 2021, down from 348 (53%) in December 2020, down from 208 (29%) in December 2019, up from 113 (31%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 977 at month end compared to 880 at that time last year and 1,238 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 64% compared to November 2023, down 74% compared to October 2023, up 3% compared to December 2022, down 31% compared to December 2021, down 45% compared to December 2020, down 8% compared to December 2019 and up 11% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 7 month’s supply (buyer’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 100% compared to 43% in November 2023, 85% in December 2022 and 137% in December 2021.

North Vancouver: Again, one of the few seller’s markets for inventory in Metro Vancouver. The benchmark price index was down 1.7% in the last quarter and up 5.2% year-over-year.

Total Units Sold in December were 106 down from 157 (32%) in November 2023, down from 194 (45%) in October 2023, down from 107 (1%) in December 2022, down from 195 (46%) in December 2021, down from 250 (58%) in December 2020, down from 155 (32%) in December 2019, up from 99 (1%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 392 at month end compared to 385 at that time last year and 560 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 62% compared to November 2023, down 73% compared to October 2023, up 24% compared to December 2022, down 17% compared to December 2021, down 39% compared to December 2020, down 10% compared to December 2019 and up 27% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 106% compared to 59% in November 2023, 132% in December 2022 and 163% in December 2021.

West Vancouver: West Vancouver saw the house price index drop 4.9% last quarter and posted a 0.9% decline year-over-year. One of the only areas in Greater Vancouver other than the Sunshine Coast and Bowen Island to decline in 2023.  

Total Units Sold in December were 41 down from 48 (15%) in November 2023, down from 53 (23%) in October 2023, up from 40 (3%) in December 2022, down from 62 (34%) in December 2021, down from 82 (50%) in December 2020, down from 46 (11%) in December 2019, up from 30 (37%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 487 at month end compared to 448 at that time last year and 593 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 62% compared to November 2023, down 68% compared to October 2023, up 15% compared to December 2022, up 8% compared to December 2021, down 19% compared to December 2020, down 10% compared to December 2019 and down 16% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 12 month’s supply (buyer’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 76% compared to 34% in November 2023, 85% in December 2022 and 124% in December 2021

Richmond: The benchmark price index declined 2.6% in the last quarter and was up 6% in 2023 with condos leading the way at 8.9%.

Total Units Sold in December were 169 down from 179 (6%) in November 2023, down from 217 (22%) in October 2023, down from 171 (1%) in December 2022, down from 387 (56%) in December 2021, down from 343 (51%) in December 2020, down from 281 (40%) in December 2019, up from 122 (39%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 1,043 at month end compared to 919 at that time last year and 1,258 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 60% compared to November 2023, down 66% compared to October 2023, down 6% compared to December 2022, up 41% compared to December 2021, down 46% compared to December 2020, down 36% compared to December 2019 and down 19% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 6 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 104% compared to 44% in November 2023, 99% in December 2022 and 140% in December 2021.

Burnaby East: The benchmark price index declined 1.9% in the last quarter and was up 6% in 2023 with detached homes leading the way at 9.5%.

Total Units Sold in December were 18 up from 13 (39%) in November 2023, down from 21 (14%) in October 2023, up from 12 (50%) in December 2022, down from 32 (44%) in December 2021, down from 41 (56%) in December 2020, down from 24 (25%) in December 2019, up from 17 (6%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 75 at month end compared to 76 at that time last year and 93 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 60% compared to November 2023, down 75% compared to October 2023, down 14% compared to December 2022, down 45% compared to December 2021, down 37% compared to December 2020, down 43% compared to December 2019 and down 40% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 150% compared to 43% in November 2023, 86% in December 2022 and 145% in December 2021.

Burnaby North: The benchmark price index declined 2% in the last quarter and was up 3.3% in 2023 with detached homes leading the way at 9%.

Total Units Sold in December were 91 down from 119 (23%) in November 2023, down from 137 (34%) in October 2023, up from 78 (17%) in December 2022, down from 157 (42%) in December 2021, down from 171 (47%) in December 2020, down from 113 (19%) in December 2019, up from 50 (82%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 417 at month end compared to 353 at that time last year and 549 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 58% compared to November 2023, down 73% compared to October 2023, up 11% compared to December 2022, down 35% compared to December 2021, down 53% compared to December 2020, up 11% compared to December 2019 and down 2% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 117% compared to 64% in November 2023, 111% in December 2022 and 130% in December 2021.

Burnaby South: The benchmark price index declined 2.7% in the last quarter and was up 4% in 2023 with townhomes leading the way at 9.6%.

Total Units Sold in December were 79 down from 83 (5%) in November 2023, down from 120 (34%) in October 2023, down from 94 (16%) in December 2022, down from 186 (57%) in December 2021, down from 148 (57%) in December 2020, down from 132 (40%) in December 2019, up from 51 (55%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 395 at month end compared to 344 at that time last year and 487 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 55% compared to November 2023, down 67% compared to October 2023, up 27% compared to December 2022, down 44% compared to December 2021, down 48% compared to December 2020, down 4% compared to December 2019 and down 26% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 105% compared to 50% in November 2023, 159% in December 2022 and 138% in December 2021. 

New Westminster: With an average price of $800,300, New Westminster continues to scream opportunity but with a slow listing month, that may not last long. The benchmark price index declined 3% in the last quarter and was up 5.3% in 2023 with both detached homes and condos leading the way at 6.6%.

Total Units Sold in December were 46 down from 65 (29%) in November 2023, down from 81 (43%) in October 2023, down from 53 (7%) in December 2022, down from139 (67%) in December 2021, down from 151 (69%) in December 2020, down from 77 (40%) in December 2019, down from 58 (21%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 240 at month end compared to 219 at that time last year and 302 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 70% compared to November 2023, down 74% compared to October 2023, up 35% compared to December 2022, down 54% compared to December 2021, down 58% compared to December 2020, down 23% compared to December 2019 and down 15% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 118% compared to 50% in November 2023, 183% in December 2022 and 164% in December 2021.

Coquitlam: The benchmark price index declined 2.3% in the last quarter and was up 3.4% in 2023 with detached homes leading the way at 6.4%.

Total Units Sold in December were 119 down from 159 (25%) in November 2023, down from 167 (29%) in October 2023, up from 81 (47%) in December 2022, down from 216 (45%) in December 2021, down from 309 (61%) in December 2020, down from 197 (40%) in December 2019, up from 89 (34%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 527 at month end compared to 452 at that time last year and 721 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 70% compared to November 2023, down 79% compared to October 2023, up 13% compared to December 2022, down 44% compared to December 2021, down 59% compared to December 2020, down 37% compared to December 2019 and down 37% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 138% compared to 55% in November 2023, 107% in December 2022 and 140% in December 2021.

Port Moody: The benchmark price index declined 0.6% in the last quarter and was up 3.8% in 2023 with townhomes leading the way at 8.3%.

Total Units Sold in December were 25 down from 40 (37%) in November 2023, down from 51 (51%) in October 2023, down from 41 (39%) in December 2022, down from 52 (52%) in December 2021, down from 78 (68%) in December 2020, down from 37 (32%) in December 2019, up from 29 (14%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 128 at month end compared to 155 at that time last year and 166 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 63% compared to November 2023, down 62% compared to October 2023, down 24% compared to December 2022, down 18% compared to December 2021, down 37% compared to December 2020, up 14% compared to December 2019 and up 100% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 78% compared to 47% in November 2023, 98% in December 2022 and 133% in December 2021.

Port Coquitlam: The benchmark price index declined 2.5% in the last quarter and was up 5.4% in 2023 with detached homes leading the way at 7.9%.

Another one of the few municipalities with seller’s market conditions. Total Units Sold in December were 36 down from 55 (34%) in November 2023, down from 54 (33%) in October 2023, down from 37 (3%) in December 2022, down from 107 (66%) in December 2021, down from 105 (66%) in December 2020, down from 84 (57%) in December 2019, down from 51 (29%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 154 at month end compared to 140 at that time last year and 183 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 57% compared to November 2023, down 66% compared to October 2023, down 11% compared to December 2022, down 41% compared to December 2021, down 62% compared to December 2020, down 32% compared to December 2019 and down 2% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 92% compared to 61% in November 2023, 84% in December 2022 and 162% in December 2021.

Pitt Meadows: The benchmark price index declined 4.5% in the last quarter and was up 4.4% in 2023 with condos leading the way at 7.1%.

Total Units Sold in December were 19 down from 21 (9%) in November 2023, down from 21 (9%) in October 2023, down from 23 (17%) in December 2022, down from 33 (42%) in December 2021, down from 26 (27%) in December 2020, down from 27 (30%) in December 2019, up from 11 (27%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 59 at month end compared to 54 at that time last year and 83 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 56% compared to November 2023, down 70% compared to October 2023, up 16% compared to December 2022, down 50% compared to December 2021, down 30% compared to December 2020, up 8% compared to December 2019 and down 18% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 135% compared to 53% in November 2023, 191% in December 2022 and 117% in December 2021. 

Maple Ridge: The benchmark price index declined 3.8% in the last quarter and was up 5.5% in 2023 with detached homes leading the way at 6.7%.

Total Units Sold in December were 100 down from 103 (3%) in November 2023, down from 110 (9%) in October 2023, up from 78 (28%) in December 2022, down from 159 (37%) in December 2021, down from 214 (53%) in December 2020, down from 130 (23%) in December 2019, up from 73 (37%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 579 at month end compared to 442 at that time last year and 718 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 49% compared to November 2023, down 69% compared to October 2023, up 56% compared to December 2022, down 6% compared to December 2021, down 38% compared to December 2020, down 3% compared to December 2019 and up 44% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 6 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 98% compared to 51% in November 2023, 120% in December 2022 and 145% in December 2021. 

Ladner: The benchmark price index declined 4.8% in the last quarter and was up 5.9% in 2023 with townhomes leading the way at 9.4%.

Total Units Sold in December were 12 down from 21 (43%) in November 2023, down from 24 (50%) in October 2023, up from 9 (33%) in December 2022, down from 21 (43%) in December 2021, down from 34 (65%) in December 2020, down from 20 (40%) in December 2019, down from 23 (48%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 86 at month end compared to 72 at that time last year and 104 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 46% compared to November 2023, down 68% compared to October 2023, the same compared to December 2022, up 17% compared to December 2021, down 53% compared to December 2020, down 53% compared to December 2019 and the same compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 7 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 86% compared to 81% in November 2023, 64% in December 2022 and 175% in December 2021. 

Tsawwassen: The benchmark price index declined 3.4% in the last quarter and was up 6.4% in 2023 with detached homes leading the way at 8.8%.

Total Units Sold in December were 21 up from 20 (5%) in November 2023, down from 27 (22%) in October 2023, down from 23 (9%) in December 2022, down from 43 (51%) in December 2021, down from 74 (72%) in December 2020, down from 26 (19%) in December 2019, up from 13 (38%) in December 2018; Active Listings were at 152 at month end compared to 130 at that time last year and 180 at the end of November; New Listings in December were down 60% compared to November 2023, down 76% compared to October 2023, down 10% compared to December 2022, down 10% compared to December 2021, down 58% compared to December 2020, down 5% compared to December 2019 and up 39% compared to December 2018. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 7 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 117% compared to 44% in November 2023, 115% in December 2022 and 215% in December 2021. 

Fraser Valley: Sales in December were down 7% from November but up 19% from December 2022. New listings were down 56% from November but up 16% from December 2022. While the average price was down 2.5% month-over-month, it is up 4% from December 2022. Active listings were down 30% to 3,992 from 5,726 last month but up 4% from December 2022. “Back-to-back mid-year interest rate hikes slowed the market despite strong sales and new listings in the spring,” said Narinder Bains, Chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “This left the market in overall balance for the latter half of the year, albeit at low levels of activity. We anticipate 2024 will bring increased optimism on behalf of buyers and sellers as the Bank of Canada is expected to lower interest rates before mid-year.” 

Highlights of Dexter’s November 2023 Report

• New Westminster’s average price is the lowest in the region

• Interest rates are coming down… soon.

• 2023 will have the lowest annual number of new listings since 2002

• West Vancouver House Price Index down 3.7% month-over-month

• BC NDP quickly pass a number of bills to boost supply and curb speculation 

The numbers don’t paint a pretty picture. Month-over-month decline in sales, below the 10-year average, and low absorption rates mean fewer new listings are being bought. But there is an optimistic tone to the real estate market and one that will likely see the tilt towards more activity come after the Bank of Canada rate announcement on December 6th. The end of the rate increases has come and the tone to quicker and sooner rate decreases is upon us. The announcement by Canada’s Central Bank is more about tone than actual change in rates and judging by the commentary in markets and by economists, it's time to start the move downward. 

December is always one of the slowest months for sales. The holiday season and the hangover after always impacts buyers and sellers. It’s more about decorating homes for the occasions than staging them for buyers. We’ve passed the high point in total listings, and the march to the end of the year will see less and less to choose from. But we’re still 13.4 percent higher than last year at this time. Whether January produces enough new listings to continue the price declines we’ve already seen in the last few months remains to be seen. But as we’ve said, buyers, your time is now. 

November felt more like the 12 Housing Announcements for Christmas with provincial and federal governments putting forward policy after policy on how to create affordability and build more homes. From programs to help buyers save, to density in neighbourhoods and around transit to eliminating short-term rentals in many regions across British Columbia. Nary a stone was left unturned when it came to putting policy forward in November. Will it work? That’s the big question. Will it produce 130,000 homes over the next 10 years in British Columbia and reduce prices by 14% as claimed by the BC NDP? Without modelling, it’s just a wish and one that the NDP has made for Christmas with the numerous bills passed in the legislature at the end of November. 

Below 2,000 we continue to go as there were 1,702 properties of all types sold in Greater Vancouver in November after seeing 1,996 sales in October. A similar trend to last year through the fall, although this year’s numbers have been higher. There were 1,625 sales in Greater Vancouver in November 2022 – so it is not all bad in the market especially when we look at 2018 when there were 1,633 sales in November. Total sales for 2023 in Greater Vancouver will likely finish just over 26,000 – down from the 29,227 in 2022. Although this would still be higher than the total sales for the years of 2018 and 2019 at 25,051 and 25,679 respectively. But alas, sales in November were 35% below the 10-year average, compared to 31% below the 10-year average in October.

There is optimism in the real estate market. Perhaps the lack of rate increases by the Bank of Canada through the fall gave some buyers and sellers reason to break free of the stalemate. There’s a noticeable uptick in activity for some listings and it’s resulting in sales for some longer-standing listings. 

With current sales, we are in a balanced market with 6 months supply of homes overall in Greater Vancouver while some areas are experiencing less inventory and positioned more in a seller’s market based on total inventory. North Vancouver and Port Moody are sitting with 3 3-month supply, while Burnaby North and South, New Westminster and Port Coquitlam were left with 4 4-month supply. Coquitlam has seen quick growth in inventory in the last 2 months, going from 599 active listings in August to 778 at the end of October. This growth is mainly in the condo and townhouse sectors but still sits with 4 4-month supply. 

There were 3,440 new listings in November after 4,752 new listings in October, compared with 5,557 new listings in September, and slightly higher than the number of new listings in November last year at 3,141. By the end of 2023 though, there will likely be 51,500 total new listings for the year which would be the lowest annual new listing count going back to 2002.

The number of new listings in November had declined to 3% above the 10-year average, compared with October with the count being 5% above the 10-year average and September with 6% above the 10-year average. We are seeing more new listings in comparison to sales levels which is helping keep active listing counts higher than the last two years, meaning more opportunity for buyers and with a slower pace of sales, the opportunity to negotiate and have time for due diligence.  

There were 10,931 active listings at month end in Greater Vancouver compared with 11,599 active listings at the end of November and 11,382 active listings at the end of September. With absorption rates much lower than is typical for November, listings are staying on the market longer and the traditional decline in active listings we are seeing in the later part of the year has been much slower. While all areas saw a decline in active listings overall, in some areas there was an increase in condo inventory month-over-month. The detached market overall remains in buyer’s market territory with 8 months supply of inventory but during the month of November the absorption rate was the highest at 52% compared to townhomes and condos, in part to lesser growth in new listings. Townhomes and condos sit just above 5 months supply of listings, bordering on a balanced market after being in seller’s market territory for some time.

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver: Month-over-month, the house price index is down 1% and only up 4.9% year-over-year. Total Units Sold in November were 1,702, down from 1,996 (15%) in October 2023, down from 1,926 (12%) in September 2023, up from 1,625 (5%) in November 2022, down from 3,492 (51%) in November 2021, down from 3,131 (46%) in November 2020, down from 2,546 (33%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 10,931 at month end compared to 9,633 at that time last year and 11,599 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 28% compared to October 2023, down 38% compared to September 2023, up 10% compared to November 2022, down 15% compared to November 2021, down 17% compared to November 2020 and up 12% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 6 month’s supply (balanced market conditions – detached homes at 8 months supply, a buyer’s market) and sales to listings ratio of 49% compared to 42% in October 2023, 52% in November 2022 and 87% in November 2021. 

Vancouver Westside: The detached home price index was up 0.9% last month, and up 9.8% over last year – the highest in the region. Total Units Sold in November were 315, down from 352 (10%) in October 2023, down from 338 (7%) in September 2023, up from 306 (%3) in November 2022, down from 647 (51%) in November 2021, down from 470 (33%) in November 2020, down from 406 (22%) in November 2019. Detached and townhouses sales were up year-over-year while condo sales were flat compared to last year. Active Listings were at 2,432 at month end compared to 2,300 at that time last year and 2,629 at the end of October – detached active listings down year-over-year – an anomaly in the market. New Listings in November were down 32% compared to October 2023, down 41% compared to September 2023, down 10% compared to November 2022, down 22% compared to November 2021, down 16% compared to November 2020 and up 19% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 8 month’s supply (buyer’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 47% compared to 35% in October 2023, 41% in November 2022 and 75% in November 2021.

Vancouver East Side: The house price index was up 8.9% over last year – a trend for Vancouver overall that will continue as the supply of detached homes declines due to densification. Total Units Sold in November were 175, down from 231 (24%) in October 2023, down from 192 (9%) in September 2023, up from 167 (5%) in November 2022, down from 385 (54%) in November 2021, down from 364 (52%) in November 2020, down from 310 (43%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 1,238 at month end compared to 1,045 at that time last year and 1,265 at the end of October (townhouse active listing counts were up compared to October); New Listings in November were down 28% compared to October 2023, down 35% compared to September 2023, up 23% compared to November 2022 (townhouses were up 46%), down 19% compared to November 2021, down 14% compared to November 2020 and up 20% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 7 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 43% compared to 41% in October 2023, 50% in November 2022 and 76% in November 2021.

North Vancouver: One of the few seller’s markets for inventory in Metro Vancouver. Total Units Sold in November were 157, down from 194 (19%) in October 2023, down from 169 (7%) in September 2023, up from 149 (5%) in November 2022, down from 247 (36%) in November 2021, down from 264 (40%) in November 2020, down from 217 (28%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 560 at month end compared to 529 at that time last year and 621 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 28% compared to October 2023, down 44% compared to September 2023, up 3% compared to November 2022, down 7% compared to November 2021, down 20% compared to November 2020 and up 17% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 59% compared to 52% in October 2023, 57% in November 2022 and 87% in November 2021.

West Vancouver: West Vancouver saw the house price index drop by 3.7% last month, strangely driven by a 3.8% decline in the condo house price index. Detached sales in November were 33 compared to 16 in November 2022, with the overall average price jumping to the highest figure since May 2022. Total Units Sold in November were 48, down from 53 (9%) in October 2023, down from 53 (9%) in September 2023, up from 28 (71%) in November 2022, down from 81 (41%) in November 2021, down from 90 (47%) in November 2020, down from 66 (27%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 593 at month end compared to 561 at that time last year and 609 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 16% compared to October 2023, down 44% compared to September 2023, up 25% compared to November 2022, up 22% compared to November 2021, down 25% compared to November 2020 and up 21% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 12 month’s supply (buyer’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 34% compared to 32% in October 2023, 25% in November 2022 and 70% in November 2021.

Richmond: Strength in the detached market saw the house price index rise 0.3% last month. Total Units Sold in November were 179, down from 217 (17%) in October 2023, down from 256 (30%) in September 2023, down from 210 (15%) in November 2022 (detached sales were up year-over-year), down from 481 (63%) in November 2021, down from 335 (47%) in November 2020, down from 273 (34%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 1,258 at month end compared to 1,108 at that time last year and 1,268 at the end of October (condo active listings were up month-over-month); New Listings in November were down 16% compared to October 2023, down 32% compared to September 2023, up 36% compared to November 2022, down 21% compared to November 2021, down 23% compared to November 2020 and up 5% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 7 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 44% compared to 45% in October 2023, 70% in November 2022 and 94% in November 2021.

Burnaby East: Total Units Sold in November were 13, down from 21 (38%) in October 2023, down from 18 (28%) in September 2023, down from 14 (7%) in November 2022, down from 33 (61%) in November 2021, down from 37 (65%) in November 2020, down from 33 (61%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 93 at month end compared to 88 at that time last year and 105 at the end of October (condo active listing count up month-over-month and year-over-year); New Listings in November were down 37% compared to October 2023, down 39% compared to September 2023, down 19% compared to November 2022, down 23% compared to November 2021, down 21% compared to November 2020 and down 19% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 7 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 43% (detached at 86%) compared to 44% in October 2023, 38% in November 2022 and 85% in November 2021. The house price index was down 2.2% last month only up 4.6% since last year.

Burnaby North: Total Units Sold in November were 119, down from 137 (13%) in October 2023, up from 113 (5%) in September 2023, up from 92 (29%) in November 2022, down from 185 (36%) in November 2021, down from 156 (24%) in November 2020, down from 137 (13%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 549 at month end compared to 416 at that time last year and 598 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 36% compared to October 2023, down 39% compared to September 2023, up 16% compared to November 2022, down 15% compared to November 2021, down 24% compared to November 2020 and up 42% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 64% (90% for townhomes) compared to 47% in October 2023, 57% in November 2022 and 84% in November 2021. The house price index was down 1.8% year-over-year.

Burnaby South: Total Units Sold in November were 83, down from 120 (31%) in October 2023, down from 126 (34%) in September 2023, down from 118 (30%) in November 2022, down from 225 (63%) in November 2021, down from 159 (48%) in November 2020, down from 167 (50%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 487 at month end compared to 425 at that time last year and 515 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 27% compared to October 2023, down 40% compared to September 2023, down 5% compared to November 2022, down 26% compared to November 2021, down 19% compared to November 2020 and down 5% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 6 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 50% compared to 53% in October 2023, 68% in November 2022 and 100% in November 2021. The house price index was down 1.4% year-over-year.

New Westminster: With an average price of $775,593, New Westminster continues to offer the best value in the region. And the house price index at $828,200 is only $7,400 above the Sunshine Coast. Total Units Sold in November were 65, down from 81 (20%) in October 2023, down from 72 (10%) in September 2023, the same as 65 in November 2022, down from 177 (63%) in November 2021, down from 137 (53%) in November 2020, down from 123 (47%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 302 at month end compared to 292 at that time last year and 305 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 14% compared to October 2023, down 24% compared to September 2023, up 2% compared to November 2022, down 27% compared to November 2021, down 22% compared to November 2020 and up 35% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 50% compared to 53% in October 2023, 51% in November 2022 and 99% in November 2021.

Coquitlam: The house price index is only up 2.7% year-over-year, more inventory is helping keep prices in check. Total Units Sold in November were 159, down from 167 (5%) in October 2023, down from 170 (%) 6in September 2023, up from 134 (19%) in November 2022, down from 289 (45%) in November 2021, down from 260 (39%) in November 2020, down from 210 (24%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 721 at month end compared to 582 at that time last year and 778 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 29% compared to October 2023, down 35% compared to September 2023, up 17% compared to November 2022, down 10% compared to November 2021, down 23% compared to November 2020 and up 34% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 5 month’s supply (detached in a buyer’s market and townhomes and condos a seller’s market) and sales to listings ratio of 55% compared to 41% in October 2023, 54% in November 2022 and 89% in November 2021.

Port Moody: This is an inventory starved market, hopefully proposed development along St.Johns Steet will help. Even with low inventory, the house price index is down 1.2% from last month. Total Units Sold in November were 40, down from 51 (12%) in October 2023, down from 44 (9%) in September 2023, up from 33 (21%) in November 2022 – condo sales were up 72% year-over-year, down from 61 (34%) in November 2021, down from 67 (40%) in November 2020, down from 43 (7%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 166 at month end compared to 194 at that time last year and 170 at the end of October; New Listings in November were up 1% compared to October 2023, down 17% compared to September 2023, up 2% compared to November 2022, up 18% compared to November 2021, up 1% compared to November 2020 and up 79% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 47% compared to 60% in October 2023, 38% in November 2022 and 84% in November 2021.

Port Coquitlam: Another one of the few municipalities with seller’s market conditions. Total Units Sold in November were 55, up from 54 (2%) in October 2023, down from 65 (15%) in September 2023, up from 39 (13%) in November 2022 – townhouse sales were up 142% year-over-year, down from 127 (57%) in November 2021, down from 102 (56%) in November 2020, down from 90 (39%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 183 at month end compared to 183 at that time last year and 201 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 21% compared to October 2023, down 35% compared to September 2023, down 1% compared to November 2022, down 21% compared to November 2021, down 24% compared to November 2020 and down 27% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 61% (113% for townhouses) compared to 47% in October 2023, 43% in November 2022 and 111% in November 2021. The house price index is down 0.7% from last month but up 6.2% from last year. 

Pitt Meadows: Total Units Sold in November were 21, the same as 21 in October 2023, down from 24 (12%) in September 2023, down from 22 (4%) in November 2022, down from 32 (34%) in November 2021, down from 46 (54%) in November 2020, down from 24 (12%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 83 at month end compared to 82 at that time last year and 91 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 17% compared to October 2023, down 28% compared to September 2023, up 39% compared to November 2022, down 11% compared to November 2021, up 3% compared to November 2020 and up 105% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to 4 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 53% compared to 44% in October 2023, 78% in November 2022 and 72% in November 2021. The house price index was down 0.8% last month but up 5.7% since last year. 

Maple Ridge: Total Units Sold in November were 103, down from 110 (6%) in October 2023, down from 108 (5%) in September 2023, up from 94 (10%) in November 2022, down from 198 (48%) in November 2021, down from 176 (41%) in November 2020, down from 169 (39%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 718 at month end compared to 543 at that time last year and 774 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 39% compared to October 2023, down 44% compared to September 2023, up 4% compared to November 2022, down 8% compared to November 2021, down 2% compared to November 2020 and down 6% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 7 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 51% compared to 33% in October 2023, 49% in November 2022 and 90% in November 2021. The house price index was down 1.7% last month but up 4.3% since last year.

Ladner: Total Units Sold in November were 21, down from 24 (12%) in October 2023, down from 26 (19%) in September 2023, up from 16 (31%) in November 2022, down from 41 (49%) in November 2021, down from 47 (55%) in November 2020, down from 42 (50%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 104 at month end compared to 83 at that time last year and 119 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 41% compared to October 2023, down 60% compared to September 2023, up 13% compared to November 2022, down 35% compared to November 2021, down 32% compared to November 2020 and down 49% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 81% (100% for townhomes and condos) compared to 55% in October 2023, 70% in November 2022 and 103% in November 2021. The house price index was down 2.0% last month, but up 6.4% since last year.

Tsawwassen: Total Units Sold in November were 20, down from 27 (26%) in October 2023, down from 42 (52%) in September 2023, down from 31 (35%) in November 2022, down from 52 (61%) in November 2021, down from 55 (64%) in November 2020, down from 36 (44%) in November 2019; Active Listings were at 180 at month end compared to 150 at that time last year and 188 at the end of October; New Listings in November were down 40% compared to October 2023, down 39% compared to September 2023, up 50% compared to November 2022, down 8% compared to November 2021, down 42% compared to November 2020 and up 2% compared to November 2019. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 9 month’s supply (buyer’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 44% compared to 36% in October 2023, 103% in November 2022 and 106% in November 2021. Tsawwassen showed a 0.9% increase in the house price index last month, up 6.3% since last year.

Fraser Valley: Sales in November were down 8.1% from October but up 6.2% from November 2022. New listings were down 19.9% from October but up 19.2% from November 2022. While the average price was unchanged month-over-month, it is up 10.4% from November 2022. Active listings were down 5% from last month but up 17% from November 2022. “As we head into the holiday season, buyers and sellers are busy with other priorities and will most likely continue to wait on the sidelines,” said Narinder Bains, Chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “We anticipate this holding pattern, defined by slow sales and declining new listings, will continue through the winter months until we see some downward movement in interest rates.”

Highlights of Dexter’s October 2023 Report

• Economists now predict interest rates will fall by 2.5%

• Median home prices are down this year in virtually every Metro market 

• Priciest detached markets lead the sales curve in Metro Vancouver 

• Province mandates 2-4 housing units on every detached house lot 

• Buyer’s market conditions now dominate suburban housing markets

Sometimes you just wonder about the short memories of Metro Vancouver home buyers and sellers. How many times have people been moaning about a tick-up in mortgage rates, about a perceived lack of homes, about too many investors and the lack of affordability. About world events hurtling us to a recession.

Plenty, so it sounds as familiar today as it did in say 2000, or in the misty past of four weeks ago when headlines and pundits were all about a housing shortage, soaring interest rates and rising home prices. 

Yet, if one looks at the Metro Vancouver market this October of 2023, it is the most welcoming environment in years for both buyers and sellers.  But many appear blinded by the brilliance of what is in plain sight. Is it time for a reality check?

Housing shortage?  The Canadian Press headline this week is “Housing supply outpacing demand in Vancouver market.” This is because there are now 11,599 homes for sale in Greater Vancouver, up 12.6% from a year ago and above the 10-year average. The Fraser Valley has another 6,580 active listings, 17% higher than in October 2022. That is a total of more than 18,000 residential properties for sale, yet total October sales in the entire region were less than 3,000. Message: there is a terrific selection of homes for sale right across the Lower Mainland.

Soaring interest rates? The Bank of Canada did not increase interest rates at the October setting and now there is growing belief that rates will be coming down, perhaps as early in Q2 2024.  Economists, including those at Desjardins. “We’re not going back to zero. But I could see rates falling to about 2.5% in terms of the Bank of Canada’s policy rate,” Desjardins told Bloomberg News. Among the reasons is that many people who took out mortgages during the 2020-21 boom will renewing next year and the Bank of Canada is feeling the pressure. 

Rising home prices? The median price of a detached house over the first 10 months of this year is down in nearly every market except Vancouver, West Vancouver and Surrey. The median – when half the prices are above and half below the line – provides a clear trendline. For clarity the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver uses median prices to show year-over-year and month-over-month trends in its internal sales and listing reports. This shows that, since October 2022, detached house prices are down $126,500 in both Burnaby and South Delta; down $168,000 in Port Moody, $50,000 lower in Richmond and down $100,000 in North Vancouver. 

For buyers this is great time to be shopping for a home, with lower prices, a huge selection and stable and soon to be falling mortgage rates. Buyers are very price sensitive  and there is a feeling of being able to negotiate and having the upper hand on sellers. While some areas may appear to be in a seller’s market, buyers don’t believe it and are trying to get the deals they have long been hoping for. This will continue into 2024 until the first interest rate declines start. Buyers, your time is now.

Sellers, especially those in top-tier markets of Vancouver and West Vancouver, or with prime listings anywhere, are attracting traffic and there have been some multiple offers.  In many markets, including North Vancouver, Burnaby South, Port Moody, New Westminster and Ladner, the sales-to-new-listing ratio is higher than 50% and competing bids are not unheard of in the current market.

There is also a wild card in the housing mix now. The B.C. Housing Ministry has confirmed that every detached housing lot in the province (except Vancouver, which has a similar density plan) will now be allowed to add three to four new housing units. But it is up to the discretion of the host municipality whether these new units are rentals or strata units, or a combination of both. (Most members of the Union of B.C. Municipalities appear to be leaning towards rentals.) Investors should ascertain what type of housing will be allowed under the local upzoning, but the new rules will certainly increase the demand for single-detached properties and land assemblies right across the province.

One thing is likely certain: five, 10 or even one year from now, many will be looking back to the autumn of 2023 and saying, ”I should have bought then.”

Regional Reports for Metro Vancouver October 2023 

Greater Vancouver: Total residential sales just missed the 2,000 mark, reaching 1,996 in October, which was up 4% from a month earlier and also up 4% from October of 2022. We are seeing a balanced market with total listings of 11,599, up from 10,305 a year ago. The sales-to-new-listing ratio is running at 42%, down from 47% in October 2022 but reflective of a solid market. By property type, the sales ratio to total active listings is 12.9 per cent for detached houses, 20.9 per cent for attached, and 21.5 per cent for apartments. The benchmark price for all residential properties is currently $1,196,500, a 4.4% increase over October 2022 and a 0.6% decrease compared to September 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,001,400.This is a 5.8% increase from October 2022 and a 0.8% decrease compared to September 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $770,200, up 6.4% from October 2022. The townhouse benchmark price is $1,100,500, up 6% from last October. All strata prices were up 0.2% compared to September 2023.

Vancouver Westside: It is the higher end of the housing ladder that is holding firm on the Westside. Despite a median price of $3.36 million more detached houses – 71 – sold in October than in a month or a year earlier and were the second highest of any Greater Vancouver market. The sales-to-listing ratio for detached houses, at 45% was the highest for any sector on the Westside. At the same time, when the most expensive new condo tower – Curv - began pre-selling in the West End, 100 condos sold despite starting prices at more than $2,000 per square foot.  Even with total condo sales down from September, October condo transactions averaged 8 per day at a median price of $844,800. Two-bedroom condos are the tougher sale in this current market. This is flagged as a buyer’s market due to a higher supply, but with a 35% sales ratio despite an increase in active listings to 2,629 properties.

Vancouver East Side: Townhouse and duplex sales almost doubled in October compared to September, with the benchmark townhouse price up 10% year-over-year to $1,118,500. Detached house sales, at 78, were the highest in Greater Vancouver with a median price of $2,045,000. Total units sold in October were 231 up 20% from both September 2023 and October 2022. The supply of total residential listings is down to 5-month’s supply and the sales-to -listings ratio of 41% compares to 31% in September 2023 and 44% in October 2022. This is technically a balanced market, but it feels like a seller’s advantage at times.

North Vancouver: With total transactions of 194, October marked the highest monthly sales since June 2023 and slightly higher (up 0.5%) from October 2022. Condos led the sales pace, with 98 transactions at median of $826,500, while 59 detached house sold at a median of $2,050,000 – a price $50,000 lower than a year ago. Active listings were at 621 at month end compared to 614 at that time last year and 627 at the end of September, but new listings in October were down 22% compared to September. This is a seller’s market with total residential listings down to a 3 month’s supply and sales to listings ratio of 52% compared to 35% in September 2023.

West Vancouver:  Evan at a median price of $3,650,000, detached house sales led the West Vancouver market, with 27 sales, tied with the same month a year earlier, though condos posted the strongest uptake, with 60% of the new listings selling at a median of $1,320,000, by far the highest price of any B.C. market. Total active listings were 609 at month end compared to 589 at that time last year and 626 at the end of September , though new listings in October were down 33% compared to September 2023. This is a buyer’s market, despite the premium prices, with an 11-month supply of listings and a sales ratio of 32%, highest for an October in two years.

Richmond: This is a buyer’s market due to the healthy six-month supply of 1,268 active listings, but sellers are still attracting buyers, as total monthly transactions are steady at 217,  the benchmark price 5.6% higher than in October 2022 and the sales-to-listing ratio is running at 45%, up from 43% in September 2023. A glitch is in the condo market, especially in new projects, where an October sales downturn is related both to higher lending rates and new  provincial legislation banning many short-term rentals. Still, benchmark condo prices remain 10% higher than a year ago, at $736,400. Benchmark detached house prices, at $2,155,600, have not budged in six months.

Burnaby East: This is the only balanced market in Burnaby, with 21 total sales in October and active listings at 105 at month end, resulting in a 5-month supply of listings and new listings selling at ratio of 45%. Benchmark prices are also balanced, with the composite up 1% from September 2023 at $1,192,600, the highest in Burnaby.

Burnaby North: A seller’s market in October saw total sales jump 21% from a month earlier to 137 transactions as new listings dropped 4% and the sales-to-listing ratio firmed at 47%, nearly equal to October 2023. With a total 4-month supply of active listings and benchmark prices up across all sectors, sellers are excited. Higher demand is expected for detached houses as the provincial zoning for two to four new housing units on detached lots rolls out. The Burnaby mayor fears speculation will drive house prices – already up 7.2% from a year ago in North Burnaby to $2,070,000 – even higher. 

Burnaby South: With the highest benchmark detached house prices in Burnaby, at $2,199,700 in October, and total sales at 120, nearly even with a year ago, this is a seller’s market. There were just 515 active listings at months end and new listings were down 19% from September. With a just a 4-month supply and the sales ratio at healthy 53%, this is could be the hottest Burnaby market this autumn. 

New Westminster: Detached house buyers are apparently discovering that New Westminster prices, now benchmarked at $1,550,700, are about $200K to $500K lower than in neighbouring Burnaby or Coquitlam and just 3.2% higher than a year ago. The higher detached sales in October– at 16 nearly double that in October 2022 – could also reflect investors looking to assemble lots because the Royal City is keen on the new provincial higher-density regulations. Note that the townhouse benchmark price is $963,700, so adding 2 strata units to a detached lot should prove profitable. All in all, this is a seller’s market with a tight 4-month supply of total listings and a sales-to-listing ratio at 53%.

Coquitlam: Total sales in October were down 2%, to 170 transactions, from September 2023 and new listings dipped 8% month-over-month in an active but balanced Coquitlam market. Prices are firm, with detached benchmarks virtually unchanged in three months at $1,796,500. It is ditto for townhouses, at $1,062,000; and condo apartments, where the $723,300 benchmark was up just 1% from six months ago. Total residential listings are up to 5 month’s supply and the sales-to-listings ratio of 41% compares to 38% in September 2023 and 58% in October 2022. 

Port Moody: With the highest home benchmark price in the TriCities, at $1,139,900 in October, this is a seller’s market with a strong overall sales-to-listing ratio of 60% and just a 3-month supply of listings. Total sales in October, at 51, were up 16% from September 2023 and 16% higher than a year earlier. Supply of new homes will begin to increase in 2024 as two large single-family and multi-family projects start to take shape.

Port Coquitlam: While total transactions dipped down 17% from September to 54 sales in October, this small city remains a seller’s market, with a total sales-to-listing ratio of 47% . With a benchmark price of $954,500 and condo apartments at $631,000, these are the lowest in the TriCities, which keeps Port Coquitlam popular with buyers, who now have more than 200 active listings to choose from.  

Pitt Meadows: With a benchmark home price of $925,800, Pitt Meadows has been an affordable market that has attracted a lot of development in the past three years. However, this will be a challenge soon as the city plans to boost community amenity contributions (CACs) for new housing, as most larger centres already have. The proposed increases, to be decided Nov. 7, 2023, are: single-family houses, from $4,500 to $5,200; Townhouses up $600 to $4,600; and condo apartments up $500 to $3,500 per unit. The CACs are on top of development cost charges from the city and Metro Vancouver. This is a seller’s market, with just 91 active listings and a sales ratio of 44% in both October and September.  There were only 6 condo listings and 20 townhouses listings as of the end of October. 

Maple Ridge: Total sales in October were 110 up from 108 in September 2023 and up from 99 in October 2022. This is now a buyer’s market with a steady 7-month supply of total listings, 747, at month’s end and a sales ratio of 33%. The detached house price index has tracked down 2.1% over the past three months to $1,280,100 and townhouse benchmarks are unchanged since August at $771,300, with condo prices dipping to $531,600, the lowest in Greater Vancouver.

Ladner: Talk about a balanced market: Ladner’s 24 total sales in October were the same as in October 2022 and the sales-to-listing ratio was 50%. Active listings were at 119 at month end compared to 117 at the end of September. The composite benchmark home price is $1,116,200, nearly unchanged (down 1.8%) from three months ago. We have long wondered how Ladner has missed the boat on developing its downtown waterfront, which could be a terrific residential and retail opportunity.

Tsawwassen: Western Investor, a popular real estate publication, has named South Delta, primarily Tsawwassen, as one of the top 5 towns for real estate investing in 2024, citing the go-ahead for the giant Roberts Bank port and the new Massey Tunnel project. However, October sales, at just 27, were down 36% from a month earlier and 4% lower than a year ago, so the hype may be premature. This is a buyer’s market right now, with a 7-month supply of listings (188), a sale-to-listing ratio of 36% and the benchmark home price unchanged from a year ago at $1,128,900. It could be the time to get in early.

Surrey: The average detached house price in Surrey increased 9.5% year-over-year to $1,690,000 in October and shot up 9.8% to just over $2 million in South Surrey-White Rock, and total detached sales increased 12.4% from October 2022 to 145 transactions. Detached sales in the city are outperforming the strata sector, as the lower-priced products are more sensitive to interest rates. “What we’re seeing in the Fraser Valley and indeed across the province is the impact of sustained high interest rates,” said Narinder Bains, chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “We anticipate the trend will continue until we start to see some downward movement in the [Bank of Canada] rate.”

Almost as anticipated as the Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate announcement next week, the mid-month Dexter Report is out to cast a light on the real estate market in Metro Vancouver. After a rise in listings in September, as is typical in October, seller interest in coming on the market is slowing. October should finish with less new listings than September but the difference between the two months won’t be as much as we typically see. More sellers are jumping off the fence then we would typically see this time of year, and thus active listing counts are creeping up. But what’s clear is that all markets throughout the Lower Mainland are behaving differently and not all housing types are the same. Some areas are still listing starved while others are seeing more moderate growth. Which means it is so important to do your homework when looking at buying or selling real estate. 

The fever around interest rates may emulate the William Shakespeare play “Much Ado About Nothing” when next week’s Bank of Canada Meeting decides on their key interest rate. After speculation through on whether they would raise the overnight rate again, the decline in the Consumer Price Index just released should be a signal to keep the rate as it is. That combined with a belief from many economists that the Bank of Canada has overreached with it’s rate increases, this could be the end of increases. Attention may now turn to when the decreases begin, possibly as early as next spring.

At mid-month in Greater Vancouver there have been 2,543 new listings, which is lower than the 2,982 new listings at mid-month in September, higher than the 2,331 new listings at mid-August and below the 2,741 new listings at the mid-point of July. It’s higher than October last year at mid-month when 2,376 new listings had come out and again higher than the mid-point of a busy October 2021 market where 2,231 new listings had come out with much higher sales.  The peak of listings totals has come in September, and we’ll see the monthly totals decline as we move through the rest of 2023. In looking at the projected total number of new listings for 2023, it is likely that this amount will be the lowest since 2002. But with the lower demand, we are still seeing a growth in the total number of active listings on the market with 11,471, compared to 11,382 at the end of September. More choice is available in the market right now for buyers, although at these levels it is still in balanced market conditions based on total supply and current sales. But some areas and product types have moved into a buyer’s market, so look carefully at market conditions depending on where you are and what you are looking for.

At the mid-point of October, there have been 1,026 sales in Greater Vancouver, an increase from September where there were 896 sales at the mid-point, a decline from 1,198 sales at the mid-point of August and a decline from the 1,295 sales at the mid-point of July. But at the mid-point of October last year, there were 1,026 sales as well. Buyers and sellers are both hesitant in this market, with the effects of higher interest rates weighing on both. Hints at a slowing economy and continued elevated prices for groceries are factoring in on consumers’ decisions as well. 

Sales to listings ratios crept back up in October so far. The Sales to Listings Ratio is at 40%, up from the mid-point of September, when the absorption rate of new listings was only 29% and compared to 51% at the mid-point of August and 43% at the mid-point of October last year. The additional listings are bringing that percentage down. As you move around the region that number changes though, with North Vancouver higher at 47%, Richmond at 46%, Burnaby North and South at 53%, Port Coquitlam at 60%, Pitt Meadows at 54% (while Maple Ridge is at 31%) and Ladner at 67%. The condo market is experiencing higher absorption rates as interest rate sensitive buyers look to that market to purchase. Detached homes had the lowest uptake in new listings as 37% of those that came on sold so far (up from 25% in September), while townhomes were slightly higher at 38% compared to 29% at mid-month in September and condos surging to 43% compared to 32% at the mid-point of September. 

Some areas to watch in October: Vancouver West is seeing sales at a faster pace in October, more so than other areas in the region with detached home sales already at 42 compared to 55 in all of September - with total active listings down from September due to these sales and less new listings. On Vancouver’s East Side new listings are tracking higher than September resulting in higher active listings, although townhouse/duplex sales so far in October are at the levels for all of September. North Vancouver sales are being driven by condos with a 68% absorption rate. West Van has seen a drop in active listings as new listings are down significantly so far in October, while Richmond has seen a decline in both sales and new listings – a lot of waiting going on there. New Westminster is showing stronger sales for detached compared to September, while in Coquitlam detached new listings are trending much lower and townhouse sales are trending up. Even with a 50% absorption rate in Coquitlam that area is seeing one of the highest rates of active listing increases. Port Moody, like Richmond is slower for sales and new listings and one of two areas where the absorption rate dropped – opportunity for buyers. In Port Coquitlam, the absorption rate for townhouses is at 100% - more supply please! Ladner and Tsawwassen are the tale of two different cities with Ladner experiencing a 67% absorption overall – 89% for detached while Tsawwassen is at a 39% absorption compared to 57% in October with only 14 sales overall compared to 42 in September. 

As we await the Bank of Canada announcement next week, the tone of the Bank of Canada could potentially breathe life into the market or make buyers and sellers hold on to their breath a little longer. But as demand continues to build and both buyers and sellers await that sign to act which likely will be when the interest rate story changes to declines, the market is sure to pick up and quite quickly. 

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver 

1,026 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
876 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
1,198 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
1,026 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
1,767 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
1,741 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

2,543 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
2,982 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
2,331 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
2,376 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
2,231 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
3,060 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 11,471 compared to 10,371 at mid-month in October 2022, and 10,831 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 40% compared to 43% at mid-month in October 2022 and 29% at mid-month in September 2023.

Vancouver West 

197 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
164 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
227 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
174 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
295 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
258 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

539 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
604 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
408 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
511 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
534 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
630 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 2,570 compared to 2,383 at mid-month in October 2022, and 2,411 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 37% compared to 43% at mid-month in October 2022 and 27% at mid-month in September 2023.

Vancouver East

112 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
78 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
120 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
109 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
204 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
192 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

325 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
337 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
239 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
249 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
255 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
395 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 1,249 compared to 1,100 at mid-month in October 2022, and 1,137 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 34% compared to 43% at mid-month in October 2022 and 23% at mid-month in September 2023.

North Vancouver

95 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
72 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
100 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
102 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
118 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
155 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

203 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
258 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
140 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
207 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
160 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
246 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 628 compared to 627 at mid-month in October 2022, and 580 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 47% compared to 49% at mid-month in October 2022 and 28% at mid-month in September 2023.

West Vancouver 

24 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
19 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
30 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
25 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
49 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
47 units sold at mid-month in October 2020
79 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
154 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
84 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
88 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
87 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
47 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 615 compared to 594 at mid-month in October 2022, and 613 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 30% compared to 28% at mid-month in October 2022 and 12% at mid-month in September 2023.

Richmond

120 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
112 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
150 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
136 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
234 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
173 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

261 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
334 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
291 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
236 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
284 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
325 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 1,260 compared to 1,281 at mid-month in October 2022, and 1,248 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 46% compared to 48% at mid-month in October 2022 and 34% at mid-month in September 2023.

Burnaby East 

9 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
10 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
12 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
10 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
23 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
22 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

30 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
32 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
25 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
26 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
17 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
70 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 107 compared to 78 at mid-month in October 2022, and 97 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 30% compared to 38% at mid-month in October 2022 and 34% at mid-month in September 2023.

Burnaby North 

73 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
58 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
75 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
57 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
87 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
84 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

138 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
146 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
123 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
124 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
102 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
165 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 573 compared to 432 at mid-month in October 2022, and 508 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 53% compared to 45% at mid-month in October 2022 and 40% at mid-month in September 2023.

Burnaby South 

71 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
53 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
66 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
67 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
103 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
72 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

134 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
147 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
126 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
144 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
126 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
157 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 522 compared to 462 at mid-month in October 2022, and 493 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 53% compared to 46% at mid-month in October 2022 and 36% at mid-month in September 2023.

New Westminster 

35 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
33 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
55 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
37 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
90 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
72 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

80 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
96 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
96 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
89 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
86 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
147 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 307 compared to 311 at mid-month in October 2022, and 306 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 44% compared to 41% at mid-month in October 2022 and 34% at mid-month in September 2023.

Coquitlam 

90 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
84 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
117 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
96 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
162 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
160 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

202 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
234 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
170 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
175 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
151 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
234 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 733 compared to 627 at mid-month in October 2022, and 660 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 45% compared to 54% at mid-month in October 2022 and 36% at mid-month in September 2023.

Port Moody

17 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
18 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
32 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
21 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
36 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
54 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

46 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
52 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
49 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
47 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
39 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
67 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 189 compared to 185 at mid-month in October 2022, and 185 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 37% compared to 44% at mid-month in October 2022 and 35% at mid-month in September 2023.

Port Coquitlam 

28 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
25 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
36 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
40 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
36 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
54 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

47 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
83 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
67 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
65 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
68 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
83 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 182 compared to 180 at mid-month in October 2022, and 198 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 60% compared to 61% at mid-month in October 2022 and 30% at mid-month in September 2023

Ladner 

14 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
13 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
11 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
8 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
14 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
24 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

21 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
30 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
17 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
21 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
24 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
25 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 115 compared to 101 at mid-month in October 2022, and 101 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 67% compared to 38% at mid-month in October 2022 and 43% at mid-month in September 2023.

Tsawwassen

14 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
23 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
16 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
13 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
31 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
37 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

36 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
39 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
36 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
36 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
39 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
59 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 179 compared to 185 at mid-month in October 2022, and 165 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 39% compared to 36% at mid-month in October 2022 and 59% at mid-month in September 2023.

The waiting game in the Metro Vancouver housing market continues but more sellers are joining in and some are becoming impatient. One month a trend does not make. But we certainly saw more listings come on the market in Metro Vancouver in September – more so in the first half. As September moved on through the second half of September, fewer listings came on than in the first half and perhaps this was a cloud burst of new listings and not a constant shower. Much like the rain in September that came in fits and starts, while we have more inventory, it’s still far short of what’s needed.

The wild card is the direction of interest rates and, to an extent, that of the provincial economy. In any case, the pot on the table is getting larger as September saw 5,564 new listings pushed into play, the highest number since May 2023 and nearly 30% higher than in September 2022. Meanwhile, 1,926 properties were sold this September, almost as low as September of 2022, with just 1,701 transactions last year.  Today, with 11,382 active listings in Greater Vancouver and another 6,532 in the Fraser Valley – and the sales-to-listing ratio falling – we believe some sellers will tire of waiting. The question is just how many.

We can expect some asking prices to come down, especially in the detached-house sector. Arguably this has already happened.

Let’s look at the environment through a potential detached house seller’s lens. The unpopular Bank of Canada shouldn’t raise interest rates again at its October sitting. I doubt even the Governor of the BOC knows for sure what to do. Let’s hope they don’t fall for the increase in jobs reported today in Canada and base a rate increase on that number. The B.C. Finance Minister just released an economic outlook that forecasts provincial GDP growth shrinking to 0.4 percent next year. Consumer confidence is fragile.  If the rate does increase, even by a modest 0.25 percent as it did in August, it would further drag down detached house sales that are already lagging. In September, the sales-to-active listing ratio for detached houses in Greater Vancouver fell to 12.6%, signalling a buyer’s market. The benchmark detached house price fell 0.1% from a month earlier and it hasn’t budged in three months.
 
Those eager to sell a detached house may decide to drop their asking price now because the demand for homes benchmarked at more than $2 million will shrink even further. On the bellwether Westside of Vancouver, for example, the average sale price of a detached house was $403,000 lower in September than in January 2023. This doesn’t mean prices fell by that much, but that the composition of sales was such that more homes for less money sold than in January. With the cost of borrowing, lower price points are more attractive.

Some owners have taken measures to hang onto their houses: 33.3% of Canadian mortgage holders now have amortization periods that exceed 30 years, some surpassing 40 years. A handful can’t hang on.

Buyers, therefore, should continue to search through the expanded listings of detached houses and prepare to be aggressive when making offers. There could be some true bargains out there as owners and investors grapple with higher mortgage rates and flatline prices. Right now, in most detached markets, buyers have the advantage. 

For wily investors with deep pockets, the new blanket zoning of Vancouver residential lots for up to six housing units, including strata corporations, could also represent an opportunity. Warning: the city expects to allow only about 150 such applications annually.

However, those hoping that a surge in new home supply, as being pushed by both the province and the federal government, will lead to lower home costs could be disappointed.

In October Metro Vancouver, which represents 21 municipalities, plans to increase development cost charges (DCCs) on new residential construction to pay for water and sewage upgrades. The increases would occur every January over the next three years beginning in 2025. For the City of Vancouver and parts of Burnaby, DCCs on a single-detached home would increase 240 percent from $10,027 to $34,133. Townhomes will also see a significant increase – up 256 percent to $30,861 by 2027. New condo apartment fees will increase 235 percent, to $20,906, during the same period. Depending on the sub-region location, the proposed combined total DCCs rate increases to $24,106 per single-family lot, $22,182 per townhouse unit, and $14,657 per apartment unit. These charges would only apply to market housing, the kind most people want.

Summary of the regional numbers for September 2023:

Greater Vancouver: The composite residential benchmark price hit $1,203,300 in September, which was a 0.4% decrease compared to the $1,208,400 in August, which was a decrease from the $1,210,700 benchmark in July. By property type, the benchmark price is now $2,017,100 for single-detached homes, $1,098,400 for townhouses, and $768,500 for condominiums, with all three representing decreases between 0.1% and 0.5% from August. All sectors are seeing sales increases of between 5.3% and 5.8% when compared to September 2022. Total units sold in September were 1,926, down from 2,296 (16%) in August, down 21% from July 2023 and down 35% in June 2023, but up from 13% compared to September 2022, but 18% lower than in pre-pandemic September 2019. Active Listings were at 11,382 at month-end compared to 10,424 at that time last year and 10,082 at the end of August. New Listings in September were up 38% compared to August 2023. The inventory of total residential listings is up to 6 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 35% compared to 57% in August 2023 and 39% in September 2022. The sales-to-active listings, though is 13%.
 
Vancouver Westside: This is considered the premier housing market in B.C., if not in Canada, but September held some surprises. With 1,155 new listings, the sales ratio is 29%, the lowest level since January 2023, and the number of active listings, at 3,225 at month’s end, was the highest since July of 2021. With just 338 sales in September, the sales ratio to active listings was just 13%, which is in a buyer’s market. The benchmark detached house price in September was $3,553,600, up 1% from a month earlier and 8% higher than a year ago. Townhouses are benchmarked at $1,457,900, down 2.7% from August 2023, while condos are benchmarked at $1,331,600, nearly unchanged for the past two months. This is a buyer’s market in all sectors with a 7-month supply and low absorption. The Westside is prime for purchase with the largest selection in almost two years.
 
Vancouver East Side: Detached house benchmark prices are up 10% from six months ago but have flatlined recently, up just 1% since the second quarter and down 0.8% from August to $1,898,100. More detached houses sold (68) on the East Side in September than in any other market except Richmond (74). With Vancouver’s recent density changes for single-family lots, we expect East Side detached sales to increase. Total home sales in September were 192, down 23% from August and lower than in June and July 2023. Active Listings were at 1,157 at month-end compared to 1,088 at that time last year and 1,013 at the end of August. The supply of total residential listings is up to 6 months and sales to listings ratio of 31% compared to 66% in August 2023 and 40% in September 2022. This is a balanced market leaning towards a buyer’s advantage.
 
North Vancouver: There is some evidence that condo apartment sales are waning but certainly not in North Vancouver, where they represent half of all sales in September. The 84 condo sales followed 85 transactions in August, compared with 57 in September 2022. The benchmark condo price has paused, however, at $811,900, over the past three months. This may reflect a surge in condo listings, with 213 added in September, nearly double that of a month before. The result is the sales-to-listing ratio fell to 39%, down from 74% a month earlier, and opening a buyer opportunity. North Vancouver's total residential property sales in September were 169 up from 160 in August, and up 33% compared to September 2022. Total new listings were up 86% compared to August 2023 and 111% higher than in September 202. Aside from condos, this is considered a seller’s market, with a tight supply continuing in the townhouse and detached house sector.
 
West Vancouver: The provincial government is pushing West Vancouver to bring more than 1,400 new housing units to the market and wants 60% of them to be rentals, half at below-market rents. Patience will be needed. Only 2,885 homes have been built in the exclusive community over the past 10 years and half of these were detached houses that now sell at a median price of $3 million. Condo apartments benchmarked at $1,331,600 in September and the 3 townhouses that sold this month were priced at more than $1.4 million each. Some reprieve for those seeking affordable housing is that West Vancouver is now a buyer’s market with a 12-month supply of total listings (626) and a sales-to-listing ratio at a low 21% in September.
 
Richmond: More detached houses sold – 74 – in Richmond than in any other Greater Vancouver market in September, perhaps partially due to price increases pausing over the past three months at a benchmark of $2,179,100. There was also a greater selection as 179 new listings were added, up from 150 a month earlier. The sales-to-new-listing ratio for detached houses is 41% and it averages 43% for strata units. Though total residential sales in September were the lowest in three months, at 256, Richmond is considered a balanced market with a 5-month supply, and the benchmark price has held steady since the second quarter at $1,184,700.
 
Burnaby East: Total sales reached just 18 transactions in September, the lowest level since May and most benchmark prices have followed suit with detached houses down nearly 6% over the past three months to $1,861600 and condo prices down 0.5% to $796,200. Townhouse benchmarks, though, are up 7% in the same period to $913,900, reflecting the low inventory. Total residential listings are up to 5 month’s supply and sales to listings ratio of 37% compared to 82% in August 2023 and 63% in September 2022 in this balanced market.

Burnaby North: The home of the Amazing Brentwood and related high-rise towers has a strong condo sector, but prices have stabilized recently, with the condo benchmark September price at $746,000, virtually unchanged (- 1%) from three months ago. Detached houses are trading at $2,048,900, down 0.1% from August 2023. Total sales in September were 113, down compared to August and 34% below June of this year. Active listings were 561 at month-end compared to 431 at that time last year and 495 at the end of August, due to an 8% rise in new listings month-over-month in September. This is a balanced, market with a 5-month supply of listings and sales-to-listing ratio of 37%.
 
Burnaby South: The most expensive Burnaby sub-market, the benchmark detached house price in September dipped 2.3% from August to $2,197,100 in September, reflecting an overall 5% sales decline, month-over-month. The benchmark was down 1% from August but remains 6% higher than a year ago. With total sales of 126 in September and active listings reaching 518 after a 31% surge in new listings in September from August, this is seller’s market. There is just 4-months’ worth of inventory and the sales-to-listing ratio is a strong 45%.
 
New Westminster: Total sales have been tracking down since June and settled at 72 in September, still up from 67 transactions in September 2022. Townhouse benchmark prices increased 1.3% from August, to $971,900, with condo apartment prices up 0.4% to $661,900. Detached-house benchmarks dropped 3.1% from August to $1,538,000 but remain up 3.4% from a year ago.

A total of 72 properties sold in September and active listings slipped down slightly to 298 at month end, despite an 11% increase in new listings compared to a month earlier. This remains a seller’s marker with just a 4-month supply of inventory and a sales-to-listing ratio at a healthy 42%.
 
Coquitlam: Coquitlam is becoming one of the better markets in Metro, with September new listings up 49% from August 2023 and sales up 19% from a year earlier, with 170 transactions in September.

The sales-to-listing ratio is running at 38%, but this is considered a seller’s market due to a tight 4-month supply of listings, which totalled 697 at month’s end. The benchmark price has held steady for three months at $1,112,900 and the detached-house benchmark is also stable, up 2.3% from a year ago at $1,789,300 as of September.
 
Port Moody: Port Moody finally has new strata projects underway, welcome because the total inventory of listings in September was 185, down from 187 a year ago, while sales totalled 43 units. New listings increased 30% from August, however, and the sales-to-listing ratio is 43% in this seller’s market. Even with just a 4-month supply of inventory, the benchmark composite home price in September was down about 1% from three months earlier, at $1,125,600, but still the highest in the Tri-Cities market.
 
Port Coquitlam: With a composite benchmark of $958,600, Port Coquitlam is one of the more affordable sub-markets in Metro and prices have been slowly declining over the past three months, as in most areas. Detached house benchmarks were down 2.1% from August at $1,408,000.  Total residential sales in September were down 4% from a month earlier at 65 transactions in this seller’s market.

There is a mere 3-month supply of listings – a total of 191 – and the sales-to-listing ratio of 47% is among the strongest in the region.
 
Pitt Meadows: With just two dozen sales in September, typical for Pitt Meadows, this is still considered a seller’s market because of the lack of listings – just 86 – and a sales success ratio of 45%.

The composite benchmark price is $958,600, down 0.2% over the past three months, but still 4.4% higher than in September 2022.
 
Maple Ridge: With 108 total sales in September, transactions have been tracking down for a year, dropping 10% from August, 24% compared to July and down 5% from September 2022. Prices have held firm, however, with the composite benchmark still 4% higher than a year ago at $999,600 and the detached house benchmark 5% higher on the year at $1,297,200. This is a balanced market leaning towards a buyer’s advantage, with a sales ratio of 31% and a 6-month supply of total listings.
 
Ladner: Total units sold in September were 26, up from 24 in August, the same as July 2023, and up from 20 in September 2022. A quiet market, with the composite benchmark price at $1,178,700, unchanged from August and up 7.8% from a year earlier. The action was in a 91% surge in new listings from August, bringing the total inventory to 117, but still only a 5-month supply in this mostly seller’s market, where the sales-to-listing ratio is running at 40%.
 
Tsawwassen: Plans are afoot to transform the aging Tsawwassen Town Centre Mall into a mixed-use development with hundreds of new strata homes. South Delta in general is on the cusp of growth with the approval of the Roberts Bank superport and work starting next year on the Massey Tunnel replacement. This could by why housing sales in September, at 42, were up 50% from August and 100% higher than in September of 2022, the biggest year-over-year increase in Metro Vancouver.

The benchmark detached house price jumped 3% from August to $1,594,500 and strata prices also edged up. New listings in September were up 37% compared to August 2023 and the sales-to-listings ratio hit 57% compared to 52% in August in this strong seller’s market.
 
Surrey: Detached house sales in Surrey in September were up 36% from a year earlier, but have been declining recently, dropping 3% from August 2023 to 170 transactions, while the benchmark price dipped 0.2% month-over-month to $1,671,900. Townhouse sales also reached 170 in September, but the benchmark price, at $883,500, was up 0.2% from August and 6% higher than a year earlier, based on 139 sales in September, down 27% from a month earlier, the benchmark condo price is $539,500, down 1% from August but 4% higher than year earlier. This reflects what is happening across the Fraser Valley. “With inventory levels continuing on a slow and steady rise, together with slow sales, what we are seeing is a more balanced market,” said Narinder Bains, chair of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

Highlights of the Dexter Report August 2023

• Bank of Canada holds prime rate at 5% but keeps door open to further hikes

• Median price of a West Side detached house up $1 million in past year

• Total new listings have been falling, month-over-month, since May

• East Vancouver is leading all markets in detached house sales 

• South Delta detached houses are moving to a buyer’s market 

It is a sad commentary on the Greater Vancouver housing market when buy and sell decisions hinge more on minuscule interest rate moves than on the pragmatic needs of consumers. But that is what is happening. Two more consecutive Bank of Canada rate hikes in June and July – at 0.25% each – were enough to drive August housing sales down to the lowest level in six months and stall a rally in new listings, which fell 16% from a month earlier.

The Bank of Canada held the prime rate at 5% at its September 6 setting, but any confidence was dashed as the Bank warned that it would not hesitate to jack rates higher if the economy – and the housing market – began to heat up again.

The best advice for buyers is simply to take today’s higher lending rates into the equation and do the best to negate them. It is clear the Bank of Canada is failing, failing to admit it overshot on rate increases over the past year and trying to maintain the illusion it knows what it is doing.

Those considering purchasing a home between now and the next Bank of Canada scheduled rate hike announcement on October 25th should secure a pre-approved 120-day mortgage and talk to a mortgage professional about the best rate and term. 

However, buyers and sellers should not be blinded by interest rate fluctuations. It is likely, considering the economic damage already done, and political pressure, that Bank of Canada rates will not increase again this year. Instead, buyers should concentrate on property values and sellers on matching their price to the market.

Buyers cannot ignore the investment dynamics this year. In the past six months, as both sales and listings fell, prices have continued to increase. The August 2023 benchmark price, at $1,208,400, is $65,000 higher than in March of this year. The benchmark detached house price was up $156,000 to $2,018,500 in the same period and the typical condo apartment price increased by nearly
$40,000 while townhouse benchmark prices have risen 5% since March to $1,103,900.

But August benchmark prices across Greater Vancouver were down 0.2% from July 2023 and strata prices have barely budged in three months. 

A key reason for a lack of new listings is universally higher prices that have frozen sellers in place and lower rates they currently have on mortgages. A look at the 20 Greater Vancouver markets shows that the August benchmark price varies very little from Bowen Island ($1.41 million) to the Westside of Vancouver ($1.34 million) or from East Burnaby ($1.19 million) to Ladner ($1.17 million). The potential of pocketing a healthy dividend when moving within the region is diminished, persuading many potential sellers to stay put. 

It currently feels like a market waiting for an excuse to buy mixed with a reluctance to sell. Growing pent up buyer demand may be the best way to explain the status of the market. But without any increase in listings, it makes it difficult for that pent up demand to release. And there’s little to suggest we’ll see any increase in supply. 

Banks are working with homeowners to keep mortgages funded – one option is allowing 30-year amortizations - and many with lower rate mortgages are unwilling to dive into the high interest rate pool and make a move. Expect that when the mortgage climate changes to more favourable buyer conditions, sales levels will increase in a significant way. The number of new listings in August was 6% below the 10-year average and has been falling, month-over-month, since May. This has kept it a seller’s market with only a 4-month supply of listings available – even with the low sales levels. This is going to keep the overall inventory of listings at two thirds the level they should be to get to balance or to favour buyers.

The bottom line is that September, often a bellwether month for sales, could ring in a traditional market rally, especially with no further increase in lending rates. This is the time for buyers and sellers to take advantage of the upturn.

If you are considering a sale, it is better to list now before fall competition increases. For those looking to buy, the current price stability offers a short-time opportunity.

Regional market data for August 2023

Greater Vancouver: There were a total of 2,296 sales in August, down 6% from July and 23% fewer than in June 2023, but up 21% from August of 2022. Active listings were 10,082 at the end of August, compared to 10,099 at that time last year and 10,301 at the end of July. New listings in August were down 16% compared to July 2023, but up 19% compared to August 2022. Despite a rally over the past six months, overall prices have stabilized. The composite home price in August, at $1,208,400, was up just 2.5% from August 2022, though 27.6% higher than in August of 2020. With a tight supply and a sales-to-listing ratio of 57% in August, Greater Vancouver remains in a seller’s market.

Fraser Valley: The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board recorded 1,273 sales in August 2023, a decrease of 6.9% compared to July. Sales were up 25.2% compared to August 2022. New listings dropped to 2,622 in August, down 8.2% from July, but 28.2% above August 2022. Active listings have been rising since last December and grew again in August by 1.5%, from July, to 6,291, just 7% off the 10-year average. The overall benchmark home price in August was $978,066 and all sector prices were nearly unchanged (down 0.6%) from July 2023 but up slightly from August 2022. The biggest year-over-year price move was condo apartments, up 2.5% from August 2022, to $553,500.

Vancouver Westside: There was a price shocker in this trendsetting market in August. Only 141 detached houses were listed for sale and 69 of them sold for a median price of $4,070,000, almost exactly $1 million more when compared to August 2022. We believe this is an unprecedented one-year median price increase anywhere at any time in Canada. To say detached demand is high is an understatement. Strata action was more muted, with townhouse and condo apartment sales and median prices nearly level with July 2023. Condo medians, at $820,875, were nearly the same as in August 2022. Total August sales were 433, down 1% from July 2023, and up 18% from August 2022. New listings in August were down 20% compared to July 2023, but up 13% compared to August 2022. The inventory of total residential listings is steady at 5-month supply, creating a balanced market with an August sales-to-listings ratio of 53%. 

Vancouver East Side: More detached houses sold on the East Side in August than in any other market in Greater Vancouver. The 80 detached transactions were also much higher than in August 22, when 57 houses sold. Prices are the key. At a benchmark of $1,913,500, East Vancouver detached prices are $1.6 million less than on the neighbouring Westside and about $100,000 below the Greater Vancouver benchmark. Some of the sales impetus could be from investors trying to assemble East Vancouver detached lots in anticipation of the higher-density zoning expected this fall, which would allow up to six housing units on detached lots. Total August sales reached 250, down from 286 (13%) in July 2023, but up from 196 in August 2022. Active listings were at 1,013 at month end, though new listings in August were down 25% compared to July 2023. This is a seller’s market with a tight supply and a sales-to-listing ratio at 66%, the highest since August 2021.

North Vancouver: The strata market is strong in North Vancouver, with a sales-to-new listing ratio of 74% and sales up sharply from both a month and a year earlier, even as sales of detached houses fell. There were 85 condo apartment sales in August, at a benchmark price of $817,400, up 0.4% from July 2023. There were 38 townhouse sales, at a benchmark of $1,312,100, but this price was down nearly 3% from a month earlier. Detached house prices, benchmarked at $2,268,000, have not budged in three months, but remain 2.4% higher than a year ago. The supply of total residential listings is steady at a tight 3-month supply, confirming this as a seller’s market.

West Vancouver: August sales were up month-over-month driven by the detached segment – not hearing that very often these days, especially in West Vancouver. It was the highest detached absorption rate since April for the community. Total sales were 57 in August and detached transactions accounted for 34 sales, at a benchmark price of $3,273,900, a price up 10% from six months ago, but still 2.4% below August 2022. New listings in August were down 20% compared to July 2023 and down 3% compared to August 2022. This is a buyer’s market, with a 10-month supply of listings and a 39% sales-to-listing ratio.

Richmond: Richmond prices have flatlined over the past three months, though they remain about 4% higher than a year ago, with the benchmark price at $1,187,900. Listings are down, as are new home starts. As of August 1, only 273 new condos had started, for example, down from 378 at the same time last year, and total listings were down to 1,162 at month’s end, about 200 units lower than a month earlier. We estimate there is only a 4-month supply in this seller’s market, with a sales-to-listing ratio at 64%, up from 54% a month earlier.

Burnaby East: This is a seller’s market but with few sellers and even fewer buyers, with just 31 sales in August from a total inventory of 83 homes for sale. There is only a 3-month supply on the market and the sales ratio is running at 82%, the highest in at least two years. The benchmark home price in August was $1,195,100, down 0.7% from a month earlier, but up nearly 7% from August 2022.

Burnaby North: Total sales in August reached 139, down 13% from July 2023 but up 16% from August of last year. We may see an increase in sales of detached houses right across Burnaby this year as the City prepares to allow laneway homes on detached lots. The laneway houses can be up to 1,500 square feet but they are also restricted to long-term rentals. The benchmark price of a Burnaby North detached house is $2,047,100, up 10% from six months ago but unchanged from July 2023. New listings in August were down 11% compared to July 2023, but up 36% compared to August 2022. Total residential listings reflect a 4-month supply, and the sales-to-listings ratio is 54% in this seller’s market,

Burnaby South: While total sales are up from last year, they have been tracking down for three months, with the 133 transactions in August down 24% since June and 4% below July 2023. Prices dipped 0.3% from July to a composite benchmark of $1,138,100. New listings in August were down 10% compared to July 2023, but up 26% compared to August 2022. Residential listings are steady at 3 month’s supply, but the detached market is flirting with a buyer’s market. The overall sales-to-listings ratio is 62% compared to 59% in July 2023, and 73% in August 2022. 

New Westminster: The Royal City was recently named the most livable city in the Lower Mainland and Number 3 in B.C., but after a surge in July sales, it posted one of the biggest declines in month-over-month sales in August. Total August sales, at 87, were down 27% from July 2023 but up from 77 transactions a year earlier. New listings dropped 16% from July, but total active listings are steady at 299 units. This includes a welcome increase in townhouse listings, which are now at a 5-month supply. Prices are holding firm, with townhomes benchmarked at $959,600, up 3% from a year ago; condo apartments also up 3% at $659,200; and detached houses at $1,587,300, unchanged from July 2023 but 9% higher than a year earlier. New West remains a seller’s market with a sales-to-listing ratio of 56%.

Coquitlam: With the imminent start of the massive Fraser Mills development and other condo projects, Coquitlam will be seeing higher starts by next year, but new supply so far in 2023 has plunged. Only 795 new homes have started, compared to 1,923 in the first seven months of 2022. Meanwhile, new listings in August were down 28% compared to a month earlier and total active listings, at 599, are down from 636 in July 2023. All sector prices are unchanged from July 2023, with the benchmark price up a mere 1.2% from a year earlier. With just a 3-month supply of listings and a sales ratio of 69%, this is a seller’s market despite the flatline prices.

Port Moody: Another strata/rental project in Port Moody has stalled at the design approval stage in a city that has had challenges getting new projects to market. The latest is a proposed six-storey, 60-unit project on St. John’s with 30 strata condos. New listings in August were down 31% from both July 2023 and August 2022 and there are only 167 active listings, lowest in a year. Still, with recent approvals, 306 new apartments have started so far in 2023, compared to just 5 a year ago, so there is progress on supply. Total sales in August were down 31% from July with 58 transactions. Condo benchmark prices are steady at $729,600 and detached houses at $2,076,500, are down 2.8% from August 2022, one of the few year-over-year declines in detached values. This is a balanced market with a total sales-to-listing ratio at 75%, compared to 43% a year ago and a healthy 6-month supply of detached listings. 

Port Coquitlam: A total of 60 properties sold in August, down 5% from July and off 11% from August 2002. New listings are tracking down and total active listings at the end of August were 169, compared to 172 a month earlier. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 60%, this is a healthy seller’s market and worth a look at by buyers. The benchmark home price was unchanged from July at $971,400, the lowest price in the Tri-Cities.

Pitt Meadows: Aside from Squamish and the Sunshine Coast, Pitt Meadows posted the biggest month-over-month detached house price drop in August, with the benchmark price down 2.8% from July 2023, to $1,317,800. Total units sold in August were 23, down 4% from July 2023 but up 35% from August 2022 so the detached price slide is a bit of a puzzle. The supply of total residential listings is steady at 3 month’s supply, while the sales-to-listings ratio of 60% confirms this as a seller’s market. 

Maple Ridge: Total sales in August were 119, down 17% from July 2023, but up from 113 transactions in August 2022, New listings in August were down 4% compared to July 2023 and up 17% compared to August 2022. The total supply of residential listings is up to 5-month supply (balanced market conditions), with a sales-to-listings ratio of 43% compared to 50% in July 2023. The benchmark price, at $1,005,700 has held steady (up 1.5%) since August of last year.

Ladner: While detached house listings are now at 6-month supply and in a balanced market condition, the strata sector is a different story with a shortage of both townhouses and condo apartments. Total new listings August were down 43% compared to July 2023. Despite the shortfall, prices are stable: the townhouse benchmark in August was $988,000, unchanged from July, while the condo benchmark was up 2%, month-over-month, to $731,900. Detached prices were unchanged from July, at $1,446,000, up 2% from a year ago. This is a seller’s market with a sales-to-listing ratio of 73% and a tight inventory. 

Tsawwassen: Detached houses are now in a buyer’s market with a 9-month supply and August benchmark prices are down 3% from a year ago to $1,547,800. Opportunity awaits detached buyers here. Townhomes are maintaining sales levels while there were more condo sales than new listings in August. There were just 28 sales in all during August, down 15% from July 2023. Active Listings were at 162 at month end compared to 179 at that time last year and 161 at the end of July. With a 6 month supply of total residential listings and sales success ratio of 52%, this is a balanced market.

Surrey: B.C.’s second-biggest city posted mixed results in August, with detached sales and prices flatlining from a month earlier and sales of strata units falling from July 2023. Detached sales reached 175, unchanged from a month earlier, while the benchmark price was down 0.5% month-over-month to $1,675,900. Townhouse sales fell 13%, month-to-month, to 189 transactions and the benchmark price was down 1.3% to $881,600. Condo apartment sales were down 7.6% from July at 207 units and the benchmark price was off 1% to $548,200.

Highlights of the July Dexter Report 

• Home prices are virtually unchanged in the past year

• Total sales in Greater Vancouver are up nearly 30% from July 2022

• Wily buyers take advantage of a summer sales slump 

• There are now 16,400 properties for sale across Metro Vancouver

• Vancouver density plan invites higher taxes for owners     

On July 25 the City of Vancouver recommended a massive rezoning of single-family neighbourhoods to create more of what is known as the “missing middle” housing. The province wants to make such ideological-driven rezoning mandatory in every city in British Columbia with legislation promised to come this fall.

The Vancouver concept would allow four to six homes to be built on most RS-zoned lots, or 60 percent of the city’s buildable land, according to the ‘senior green building planner’ for Vancouver. It also restricts the size of any new detached house. The policy, though, has forgotten the major player in the plan: detached house owners, many of whom want no part of it.

The City of Victoria passed a similar rezoning plan in January of this year. Seven months later not a single application has come forward from a detached house owner willing to turn their private land into a multi-unit rental complex.

Many detached house owners are not willing to risk their financial future and peace of mind by jumping on board a plan that they fear, rightly, will transform their quiet communities and expose them to the federal capital gains tax that could grab up to 50% of their real estate equity for investment properties.

Consider this. The average price of a Vancouver Westside detached house in July was nearly $4.3 million. If sold as a paid-for private residence, the capital gains tax would be zero. But, if the owner divided the house into four rentals and lived in one unit and then sold the property for the same price, the owner would be responsible for capital gains tax as the owner of the income-producing property.

As well, under Vancouver’s missing middle plan, the detached house owner could only produce a “below-market rental unit” or a secure rental unit (which means forever); or pay a “set-rate bonus payment” for the increased density as a market rental. There is no definition of what the bonus payment would be, but currently, in the Cambie area, it averages $135 per square foot for the extra space in a new development.

The house owner would also be subject to the GST on any new construction; would be required to build any new homes under Vancouver’s expensive and confusing “passive house” energy regulations; and would be subject to higher property taxes and utility costs yet would only be allowed to increase rents by 2% per year under provincial regulations. Private detached house owners are somehow, miraculously, expected to deliver what seasoned developers, city planners and other bureaucrats cannot: low-cost rentals in Vancouver.

The City of Vancouver will present its missing middle plan to public hearings in September. Expect a lot of discussion. 

Prices are not skyrocketing. 

There is a lot of media noise being tossed around about “skyrocketing” Greater Vancouver home prices. While true the Benchmark Price is up about 10% from January to July 2023, to $1,210,700, prices are just 0.5% higher compared to a year ago and in a dozen Greater Vancouver communities – including Burnaby North, Coquitlam, Tsawwassen and West Vancouver – composite prices are lower now than in July 2022. On the bellwether Westside of Vancouver, the July benchmark detached house price, at $3,458,000, was up just 1% from a year ago.

The benchmark condo price this July is $771,600, up 2.7% from last year, but condo prices in East Vancouver, Burnaby North and Burnaby East, arguably the most active condo markets in Greater Vancouver, are up less than 1% from July of last year, which should help convince more buyers to take advantage of the summer slowdown to get into the Greater Vancouver market now.

After peaking in May, sales have declined month by month since buyers have now faced two straight increases in the Bank of Canada rate. Greater Vancouver's total sales in July, at 2,455, were down from 2,988 in June to the lowest level since March. In the Fraser Valley, July sales fell nearly 30% from June 2023 and benchmark prices are up an average of 1% from a year ago. But even with the decline in sales transactions, buyers still want to buy, and many sellers are not desperate to sell.

As the summer continues, there will be more opportunities than we’ve seen over the last four months for buyers. With many people away or taking a break from the market, it’s the prime time to be a buyer. Inventories have increased, giving more options, especially in some areas.

The increase in the Bank of Canada rate and fixed rates bumping up over the last month or so have pulled some buyers from the market. Those with 60 to 90-day rate holds are trying to buy before those rate holds expire while others are content to wait out the increases in borrowing costs. With travel and the many local events returning occupying many people’s time, real estate is losing some of the attention it normally would get. Of course, the lack of resale inventory continues to challenge the market and while we wouldn’t expect to see it increase during the summer months, the number of new listings dropped while absorption rates remained close to the levels we’ve seen this year, and in some areas increased. July saw 4,757 new listings after June produced 5,466 new listings after there were 5,776 new listings in May. Year over year, new listings were higher with 4,067 new listings produced last July which is helping would-be buyers in the market.

Don’t expect the higher interest rates to result in more listings. Sales of residential land to developers have fallen 80% in the past year, largely due to rising financing costs, which will stunt delivery of new strata homes into next year, at least. As well, the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada and the Federal Government have issued guidelines for Canadian banks to help homeowners facing significant increases in mortgage costs. Measures such as waiving penalties to break mortgages and increasing amortization periods to lower payments are on the table. 

Banks do not want to own homes, so don’t expect increased rates to lead to a major rise in mortgage foreclosures or distressed sales. 

Instead, serious buyers should be ignoring summer temptations and shopping through the 10,301 active listings now on the market. Buyers can take advantage of a shallow slump and good selection to secure a property now.

Regional numbers for July 2023 

Greater Vancouver: Total transactions reached 2,455 in July 2023, a 28.9% increase from the 1,904 sales recorded in July 2022. This was 15.6% below the 10-year seasonal average and the lowest level in five months. Total inventory at month end, 10,a301 properties, has moved to a 4-month supply, with detached up to 6 months and into balanced market territory. Townhouses and condos are still at a 3-month supply, though price is key for buyers right now. Looking at year-over-year, sales-to-listings ratios are up while condos remained the same. Overall, the 52% absorption in July is showing strength considering the increase in fixed and variable-rate mortgages. The Benchmark Price for all residential properties is currently $1,210,700. This represents a 0.5 per cent increase over July 2022 and a 0.6 per cent increase compared to June 2023.

Fraser Valley: July new listings, at 2,855, were down 16.6% compared to June 2023 but 19.7% higher than July 2022 levels, and virtually on par with the 10-year average. Active listings climbed by 4.3% over June, bringing the total inventory for sale to 6,199 properties. Sales totalled 1,368 in July, a decrease of 29.3% from June 2023, but still 37.8% above July 2022. Benchmark detached and townhouse prices were down about 2% from a year ago, with detached at $1,543,300, townhouses at $850,300 , while condo apartment prices increased 0.8% year-to-year at $555,500.

Vancouver Westside: Total sales in July, at 438, were down 17% from a month earlier and 19% higher than July 2022. Despite a 10% surge in benchmark detached house prices since January, prices are up just 1% from a year ago at $3,458,000. Competition is fierce for anything under $3 million. In Kitsilano earlier this week there were only 8 detached homes listed below $3 million, and just 4 in Point Grey, with multiple offers being seen. Active listings were 2,366 at month end compared to 2,453 at that time last year and 2,249 at the end of June. New listings in July were down 7% compared to June 2023. Condo apartments dominated July sales with 325 transactions, and benchmarked at $866,300, up 4% from a year ago. The supply of total residential listings is up to 5-month supply and sales to listings ratio is 43% in this balanced market.

Vancouver East Side: The East Side story in July included a 12% dip in sales from a month earlier and a 21% decline from May 2023, with 286 transactions. Detached house prices flatlined from June 2023, at $1,897,200, but are up 3.7% from a year ago. Condo prices are just 0.5% higher than in July 2022, at $717,700. Active Listings were at 1,082 at month end compared to 1,191 at that time last year and 1,082 at the end of June. New listings in July were down 18% compared to June 2023. This is a seller’s market with just a 4-month supply and sales-to-listing ratio of 57%. 

North Vancouver: North Van remains a strong seller’s market, especially in the condo sector, which has only a 2-month supply of inventory and a 68% sales-to-listing ratio. The benchmark condo price is $814,400, which has not moved much (up 2%) in a year, despite the robust sales. A total of 185 properties sold in July and sales have tracking down since May. Active listings were at 530 at month end compared to 573 at that time last year and 553 at the end of June; New Listings in July were down 21% compared to June 2023.

West Vancouver: Total sales were 47 in July as the summer siesta affected even the most prestigious market in Metro. This is a buyer’s market with more than 600 active listings and sales ratio in the mid-20% range and a 13-month supply of properties for sale. The Benchmark Price is a north of $2.6 million and the typical detached house sold in July for $3,241,000, down 4.2% from a year earlier.

Richmond: Richmond should be benefitting from Canada’s immigration surge but there is a disconnect in Ottawa: there is a foreign homebuyer ban for two year and no one in charge apparently realized that 500,000 newcomers may need a place to live. There is little relief in sight: when the federal cabinet was shuffled the former immigration minister became the new housing minister. Richmond, the most multi-ethnic enclave in B.C., has seen housing sales drop 26% over the past two months to 294 in July and new listings were down 15% from a month earlier. This remains a seller’s market, though, with just a 3-month supply, a sales ratio of 53% and the Benchmark Price up 2.6% year-over-year to $1,118,300.

Burnaby East: Sales in July, at 47, were lower than even three years ago and new listings dropped sharply 39% from June 2023. Still, with a sales-to-listing ratio of 64% from a limited supply, this qualifies as a seller’s market. Condos are the market maker here, as in most of Burnaby, but the benchmark condo price is frozen, rising just 0.7% over the last 12 months to $803,700 in July.

Burnaby North: Total sales in July were 160, down from 170 in June 2023, but, up from 29% compared to July 2022. Active Listings were at 481 at month end compared to 475 at that time last year and 440 at the end of June. A seller’s market with a 3-month supply and a sales ratio of 55%, detached houses are the only sector posting year-over-year price gains, with detached prices up 2.4% to just over $2 million. Townhouse prices, by comparison, are down 2.7% year-over-year and condo benchmarks have flatlined at $747,000. The sales ratio is 55% but this more a reflection of supply than demand.

Burnaby South: Total sales wilted 40% over the past two months and July was far from hot with transactions at 139, lower even than in July of 2019 but up 10% from July 2022. The Benchmark Price inched up 1.1% from June 2023 to $1,135,000. There is a tight supply of 457 properties for sale and the sales ratio is running at 59%, the lowest July pace in three years.

New Westminster: The secret is out as buyers have found that the Royal City is one of the best-priced markets in Metro Vancouver. Detached sales, at 119, are up from June 2023 and up 127% year-over-year with a 97% absorption rate. The condo market saw a growth in new listing in July compared to June but, like townhomes, remain in a seller’s market with 2-month supply. The Benchmark Price in New Westminster is $846,400, up 2% from a year ago.

Coquitlam: Sales in July, at 223, were down 16% from a month earlier and 21% from May, but up 57% year-over-year in this seller’s market. The big mover is townhouses, with sales up 157% year-over-year and active listings down from June. The townhouse benchmark is $1,061,900, down nearly 2% from a year ago and it dropped a further 1% in July compared to a month earlier. Detached house prices are holding firm at $1,795,400, as is the overall sales-to-listing ratio of 55%,

Port Moody: Two big residential developments have apparently been approved, including the three-tower Westport Village on the former Andres Wine site, that has been in 18 years in planning. It will supply hundreds of new housing units, eventually, to a market with just a 2-month supply of listings. With total sales of 85 in July, down from one and two months earlier, and a sales ratio of 77%, this is a strong seller’s market. The Benchmark Price is down 6.5% from a year ago at $1,121,500.

Port Coquitlam: Buyers scrambling for more affordability can’t find enough supply in the lowest-priced TriCities market where the Benchmark Price in July was $975,800. Condos are down to a one-month supply. The lack of inventory, just 172 total active listings, has stunted sales, which dropped to 73 in July, the lowest level for that month in at least four years, despite a sales-to-listing-ration of 60%.

Pitt Meadows: The sales-to-listing ratio was 52% in this seller’s market where buyers are chasing too-few listings. With new listings falling, there were only 74 properties on the market at the end of July after 24 sales in the month. Despite a price rally this year, the benchmark detached house price is just 2.4% higher than a year earlier, at $1,355,900. Townhouse prices are down 1.8%, year-over-year, to $836,6000.

Maple Ridge: Total sales have been tracking down since May, but reached 143 transactions in July, up 32% from July 2022. At $739,600, Maple Ridge has the lowest priced townhouses in Metro Vancouver. The benchmark detached house is down 2.4% from a year ago, at $1,307,400. With 622 active listings and a sales success ratio of 50%, this is a seller’s market with stable pricing.

Ladner: There were 22 fresh townhome listings in July compared to just 7 in June 2023, as the benchmark price increased 4.1% from a year earlier to $987,500.
Detached sales suffered from higher lending rates, though as sales dropped to 14 from 23 transactions in June 2023 even as the benchmark price jumped 16% so far this year to $1,50,2000. Prices are still slightly below a year earlier. There are 102 total active listings and a sales ratio of 45% in this seller’s market.

Tsawwassen: Buyers aren’t the problem in Tsawwassen, with an overall sales ratio of 58% and condominium absorption up to 69% from 63% in June. The problem is supply with new listings dropping 9% from June 2023, and just 161 active listings available. The Benchmark Price is down about 2% across the board compared to a year earlier, to $1,222,000, with detached houses at $1,550,600, despite price increase since February. This is considered a balanced market.

Surrey: Detached house sales fell 34% in July from a year earlier but were up 30% from June in a perplexing rally considering recent interest rate hikes. Detached prices, however, have barely moved, up 1.1% from July 2022 to $1,683,300. Townhouse and condo sales are down double-digits from a year ago, at, respectively, $893,000 and $555,000 in July. The Fraser Valley Real Estate chairman summed up the Valley market well: “Summer is typically a slower period for the real estate sector and the higher interest rates are contributing to the market slowdown,” said Narinder Bains “We’re seeing less traffic as buyers and sellers put a pause on decisions and we expect this trend to continue until the fall cycle.”

Highlights

• May average home price $200,000 higher than in January

• May home sales-to-listing ratio a sizzling 59%

• Total sales are the highest this year and higher than in May 2022

• Surrey detached new listings were up 53% from April 2023

• Overall higher listings may point to a price plateau this summer 

After five months that defied most predictions and pundits, the Metro Vancouver housing market has righted itself - as we’ve been saying the last few months, while quickly shifting to a seller’s market. But the potential is there to be more balanced between buyers and sellers as we sail into the summer.

May exposed a slight tilt in that balance in favour of buyers, with sellers about to face a more competitive environment with the increase in new listings that happened in May. And depending on what happens with the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday, that could change some buyers’ ability to compete.

Back in January and before – when the headlines were full of predictions of a recession and a continued housing downturn - we urged homebuyers to jump into the market to take advantage of the dip. Since then, the average home price in Greater Vancouver has shot up by $200,000 and the sales-to-listing ratio has risen from 29% to 61% in April before settling to 59% in May, close to the hottest markets in 2021 and early 2022.

We based our forecast not only on the strength of the regional economy but on decades of experience as real estate professionals at Dexter Realty. We have seen deep downturns and heady highs before, so we understand the patterns and how quickly it can change. 

While May 2023 marked the fifth straight month-over-month increase in sale and price, it also sent the first signals of a chance for a market shift.

While we are still in a seller’s market in most areas and property types, if the increase in new listings continues, this will favour buyers. And perhaps some buyers are waiting for the June 7 Bank of Canada announcement, which could affect mortgage rates.

The evidence is in the number of sales and listings in May, and when they occurred. It is all about momentum.

In May 2023 a total of 3,411 residential properties sold in Greater Vancouver, not only the highest sales of this year but the first month in 2023 that sales were higher than the same time a year earlier and the first time this trend occurred in the last few years. 

The average (not benchmark) home price in May reached $1,315,617, the highest level since April 2022 and up nearly 3 per cent from May of 2022.  

This would all point to a seller’s market, except that, unlike previous months this year, May sales were slightly lower in the second half of the month compared to the previous two-week period to start May. At the same time, new listings increased, rising from 2,909 at mid-month to 5,776 at month’s end, compared to 4,399 in April 2023. May tends to be the most active month of the spring market, so we could see that shift come June. 

In the Fraser Valley, new listings in May, at 3,533, were 42% higher than in April (with detached listings up a startling 61%) while sales increased just 10% month-over-month to 1,711. 

So, as May ended, we were seeing parallel momentums: many more listings and perhaps the peak of sales.

While the last few months have been characterized by multiple offers and increasing prices, we will now see more competition among sellers. It will take many more listings to ease the competition amongst buyers but May was a start.

With the increase in listings comes some great opportunities for buyers. Work with an experienced REALTOR® who can sniff out the right property that’s gone under the radar. This isn’t 2021 when prices went wild. There is now a sense of control, and, for some properties, buyers are not willing to compete or take on the price that sellers are asking. 

Buyers must practice patience now, which is difficult after months of low inventory. We are going to see listings increase, the sales-to-listing ratio settling down and more competitive pricing offered by sellers. In short, hopefully we’ll see some balance come into the market for the first time in in three years. 

Of course, all real estate markets are unique, and not all will follow the same trajectory immediately.

There were 9,293 active listings at month end, above the 8,790 at the end of April. Yet some areas had fewer active listings in May than a month earlier, so it’s important to look locally when doing direct comparisons. 

Vancouver East saw a slight uptick in the sales-to-listings ratio while North Vancouver maintained its high rate at 66%. Both locations were called out by the provincial government for not doing enough to supply housing in its recently released list of the municipalities that aren’t building enough homes. Port Moody, on the heels of less sales in May compared to April, saw its absorption rate fall from 91% to 65%.  

Ladner led the way in May with a 108% sales-to-listings ratio as there were more sales than new listings there. Not surprising, Delta was also cited by the province for not supplying enough homes. 

Overall Greater Vancouver remains with 3-months’ supply of listings – and with the current number of sales we’d need to double the number of active listings to get into a truly balanced market, but listings are finally increasing.

Best advice to buyers: Work with your trusted REALTOR®, get pre-approved for financing, narrow your search and be ready when your agent finds that ideal property. Do your homework and keep within your budget. 

Best advice to sellers: Prices have risen 1.5% per month this year, but do not expect that to be automatic. A property priced right will attract a slew of potential buyers (it is not uncommon to see 40 people through a weekend open house) but if it is priced above the market or not showhouse ready, buyers now have the option to move on to the next new listings.

A summary of the regional markets: 

Greater Vancouver: A total of 3,411 residential properties sold in May, up 24% from a month earlier and, for the first time this year, higher than in the same month in 2022, when 2,947 transactions were counted. The surge in prices surprised us all, even the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). “Back in January, few people would have predicted prices to be up as much as they are – ourselves included,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “Our forecast projected prices to be up by about 2% at year-end. Instead, home prices are already up about 6% or more across all home types.”

As of May 23, the composite benchmark price was $1,118,000, up 1.3% from a month earlier; the detached house price was up 1.8% to $ $1,953,600. While townhouse prices remained virtually the same as in April, at just over $1 million, condo apartment prices were up 1.1% month to month to $760,800.

Active Listings were at 9,293 at month end compared to 8,790 at the end of April; new listings in May were up 31% compared to April 2023. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 59% compared to 62% in April 2022 and 45% in May 2022.

Fraser Valley:  Total Valley sales reached 1,711 in May 2023, up 25% from May 2022 and 10% higher than in April 2023. With new listings up 42% from April, there were total active listings of 5,588 at the end of May, 20% higher than a month before. The benchmark composite home price in May was $961,702, up 6.7% from April 2023 and 3% higher than in May 2022.  

Vancouver Westside: Metro’s bellwether housing market saw 624 sales in May, up 33% from a month earlier and 7% higher than in May 2022. The May 2023 benchmark detached house price has increased 5.7% (or $193,000) in the past six months and took another 0.5% step up from April to $3,338,800. Townhouses sold for $1,457,500, down 3% from April, and condo apartments sold in May 2023 at a benchmark of $849,800, up 4.8% over the last three months. Active listings were 2,115 at month end compared to 2,460 at that time last year and 1,992 at the end of April, but new listings in May were up 40% compared to April 2023. With a 3-month supply of total residential listings, the sales-to- listings ratio is a healthy 53% compared to 56% in April 2023 and 46% in May 2022. 

Vancouver East Side: Vancouver is one of the cities named as needing to increase new home starts and it is easy to understand, since East Vancouver, like the Westside, also has just a 3-month supply and a sales-to-listing ratio above 50%. The problem is new homes are more expensive, largely because of government fees and taxes, which have increased sharply. A recent study showed a typical new $840,000 condo apartment in Vancouver includes $327,565 in government costs. An Eastside resale condo had a benchmark price of $707,000 in May, up 1.9% from a month earlier, while townhouses were at $1,109,100, the same as in April, and detached houses sold in May for at a benchmark of $1,822,700, up 2.5% from a month before. Total May sales were 360, up 35% from a month earlier and 13% higher than in May 2022. Active Listings were at 1,006 at month end compared to 1,173 at that time last year and 939 at the end of April. This is a full-on seller’s market.

North Vancouver: Total housing sales in May were 288, up 32% from a month earlier and 3% above May 2022. The composite benchmark home price is $1,397,500, up 5.5% from six months ago and 1.8% higher than in April 2023. While new listings increased 32% from April, total active listings were 514 at the end of May, representing just a 2-months’ supply of housing, with townhouses down to a 1-month inventory. The sales-to-listing ratio has held steady at 66% for two months. The benchmark price for a detached house is now just 4% below May 2022, and, at $2,269.400, the highest level this year.

West Vancouver: The benchmark price of a detached house in West Vancouver in May was nearly unchanged from six months ago, at $3,111,600. Total housing sales, mostly detached houses, were 80 in May, up 16% from April 2023 and 16% higher than in May 2022. With 529 total active listings, there is a 7-month supply in a balanced market where the sales-to-listing ratio is 35%.

Richmond: Two large strata projects in Richmond totaling 1,200 units have been cancelled, the latest the 400-condo Minora Square on May 26, where pre-sale buyer deposits are being refunded. Perhaps a resale condo is a safer bet, since Richmond has also raised new condo development cost charges to around $25 per square foot. In May, a total of 396 homes sold in Richmond, leaving a total inventory of 1,043 properties (a drop from 1,602 at the end of April), or about a 3-month supply, with a 61% sales-to-listing ratio. Prices are rising sharply. The benchmark detached house price is up 7.7% since December 2022, at $2,189,600; and the benchmark condo price in the same period is up 9.6% to $747,00. Townhouse prices are 0.2% higher than a year ago, at $1,119,900.

Burnaby East: Burnaby East saw 39 home sales in May, up from both April 2023 and May 2022 and it now has 90 active listings. With a sales ratio of 57%, the benchmark home price is up 4% since the start of the year, at $1,159,600. This is a seller’s market with just a 2-month supply of homes on the market.

Burnaby North: Burnaby has the most new housing in the works across the region, with a total of 10,630 new strata units envisioned in four massive projects from Brentwood to the Edmonds area, according to an open house May 30 at Burnaby City Hall. All four sites require rezoning. However, Burnaby also wants to increase development fees to help cover the cost of an extended array of infrastructure, including firehalls, RCMP police stations, homeless shelters and “composting and organic processing facilities,” which will add to new strata prices. The new homes are needed. Burnaby North has just a 2-month supply of active listings and they are selling at a pace of 63% per month. The benchmark condo price is now $805,800 and townhouses sell for $902,200, both up about 6% from the first of this year. 

Burnaby South: Total units sold in May were 233, up 8% from a month earlier and 43% higher than in May 2022. The benchmark composite home price is up 5.5% since January 1, at $1,112,300; and detached house prices are up 8% in the same period to $2,177,100, the highest in Burnaby. New listings in May were up 20% compared to April 2023 but down 7% compared to May 2022. The supply of total residential listings, at 404, is steady at a 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) with a sales-to-listings ratio of 73%. 

New Westminster: The benchmark price for a detached house in the Royal City was $1,525,800 in May, up 5% from the start of 2023, but the overall composite price remains among the lowest in Metro, at $827,600. A total of 142 residential properties sold in May, 26% higher than a month earlier and up 27% from May 2022.  Active Listings were at 258 at month end compared to 313 at that time last year and 238 at the end of April. This is about a 2-month supply as the sales-to-new-listing ratio has been running at 70% in both May and April. 

Coquitlam: Total May sales reached 284, up 35% from April 2023 and 16% higher compared to May 2022. Active Listings were at 555 at month end compared to 642 at that time last year and 495 at the end of April; new listings in May were up 38% compared to April 2023, perhaps because sellers see what is happening. The benchmark home price has increased 4.7% so far this year to $1,114,900 and the sales-to-listing ratio has been over 60% for four months. This is a strong seller’s market.

Port Moody: This Tri-City community has a history of slow development, and it is on the list of cities where the province wants to see more housing starts. Port Moody now charges $33,453 per detached or duplex lot in development fees and tacks from $11 to $14 per square onto new strata units, so that will add to new home prices. Right now there is just a 2-month supply with only 184 active listings. Benchmark home prices are still 9% below May 2022, at $1,112,300. The sales to listing ratio, though, was 65% in May and 91% in April, so supply could disappear quickly. 

Port Coquitlam: Total units sold in May were 91, up from 76 in April 2023 and the very same at in May 2022, but the composite benchmark home price is down 6.9% year-over-year, at $951,800. Detached houses were benchmarked in May at $1,392,100, up 8.5% from January 1, but still 8% lower than a year ago. While new listings in May were up 89% from April 2023, there are only 153 active listings, enough to last about two months, with a sales-to-listing ratio running at 62%.

Pitt Meadows: Just 30 homes sold in May, but that was 44% better than April 2023 and higher than the 28 sales in May 2022. Detached home prices, while lower than last year, have soared 10% from the start of this year to a 2023 high of $1,274,800 in May. Active Listings were at 71 at month end compared to 84 at that time last year and at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 17% compared to April 2023 and the hot sales-to-listings ratio of 86% shows the current supply may not last long.

Maple Ridge: With 218 sales in May, total transactions were up 35% from a month earlier and 23% higher than in May 2022. The benchmark detached house price has increased 7.6% over the past three months to $1,261,700, with townhouse prices up to $768,100 after a 2.4% increase from a month earlier. The post-COVID slump in Maple Ridge appears over, with a sales-to-listing ratio in May of 63% and 62% in April in what has become a seller’s market with 539 active listings available.

Ladner: Delta is another of the Metro region cities called out by the province for not building enough new homes. Ladner, for example, only has 85 active listings (down from 100 at the end of April) and the May sales-to-new-listing ratio was 108% and new listings were down 14% from April 2023, while sales increased 26% to 54 transactions. The benchmark home price in Ladner is up 7.2% since the start of the year, at $1,144,200. There were more strata sales than new listings in May, which saw townhouse benchmark prices rise 10.4% so far this year to $973,800. Condo benchmark prices are at $704,800 in May, up less than 2% since January, however. 

Tsawwassen: Total units sold in May were 62 up 15% compared to April 2023, up 44% higher than in May 2022. Active listings were steady at 166 at month end compared to 165 at that time last year and 167 at the end of April; New Listings in May were up 23% compared to April 2023. Total residential listings are at a 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and the sales to listings ratio of 68% compares to 73% in April 2023. The benchmark home price in May was $1,221,900, up 5.6% from the first of this year but nearly 9% below the price in May 2022. Townhouse sales are particularly slow and the benchmark price of a townhouse, at $1,005,700 in May, has barely budged in two months.

Surrey: B.C.’s second-biggest city saw 855 total sales in May, almost evenly divided among detached, townhouse and condo properties, but there the similarity ends. Detached sales, at 284, were up 44% from a year earlier and 11.4% from April 2023. The average detached price was $1,784,000 in May, up 8% from a month earlier. There were 246 townhouse sales, up 8% from a year earlier and 14% higher than a month earlier, while the average townhouse price was up just 0.3% from April 2023 to $878,396. Condo apartment sales, at 225, were up 1.8% year to year, and 1% month to month, while the average price was up 3.3% from last year and 6.6% from April 2023, at $560,180.

Highlights of Dexter Realty’s February 2023 Report 

• Prices increased month-over-month for the first time since May 2022

• Housing sales are up 77% from January; new listings are up just 5%.

• Multiple offers are being seen on Westside detached houses. 

• Top townhouse market: New Westminster. 

• Undersupplied North Vancouver is now a seller’s market.

The last three years have been an anomaly for housing markets around the world and Greater Vancouver is no exception. That is why it is virtually useless to compare our current, back-to-reality environment with what was happening a year or two years ago during a once-in-a-century event.

In 2021, we were in the grip of a global pandemic and a home-buying frenzy with mortgage rates at record lows. In February 2022, housing sales and prices hit a white-hot peak just before the federal government hosed it down with the first of eight straight interest rate increases through the Bank of Canada.

Today, in February 2023, the panic buying is history, mortgage rates have stabilized, and buyers are back into the first normal housing market in four years. Driven by buyer demand and low supply, February marked the first month-to-month home price increase in nine months

Greater Vancouver housing sales, at 1,824 transactions in February, were up 77% from January 2023 and 21% higher than in February 2019, before the whole pandemic-influenced housing boom-and-bust began. February sales were also higher than in November and December 2022, and, we believe, signal the start of a strong spring selling season.

Buyers are already competing with other buyers for far fewer listings. The number of new listings in February was the lowest for that month going back to pre-1991, much the same as it was in January. Compared to January 2023, listings were only up 5%. 

But, since sales have been slower over the past 10 months, a total of 8,283 homes were on the market at the of February, above the 7,862 active listings at the end of January and a few hundred more than in December 2022. 

With buyers flowing back into the market, immigration hitting record levels and interest rates settling down, this appears a prime time to encourage housing starts. However, governments at all levels appear to be doing their best to stunt new home construction.

The federal government has banned foreign buyers for two years, including those investing in residential land, if the developer has less than 97% Canadian ownership. For example, a 3,000-unit Burnaby residential development, now under construction, would not be allowed today because the developer is based out of London, England. The recent collapse of major condo developers in Metro Vancouver could be traced to the ban’s impact on companies with as little as a 3% foreign ownership. This has put thousands of new homes at risk.

The B.C. government is spending $500 million to stop or stall the private redevelopment of 50 and 60-year-old rental buildings into modern, higher-density housing projects.

Metro municipalities are jacking up development cost charges, even as housing starts fall. Among the examples is Richmond, where housing starts so far in 2023 total just 73 units, down 80% from the 381 starts at the same time a year ago. Richmond is raising DCC rates on single-family lots by $20,000 to $61,138, and raising the DCC rate for condo apartments and townhouses by 43% to more than $34 per square foot. This means that a modest new townhouse of 1,200 square feet will now cost about $41,000 just in city development fees. 

All governments preach about addressing the supply of ‘missing middle’ housing for families, which translates as townhouses. Yet only 3 townhouse units have started so far this year in the City of Vancouver, compared to just 21 units a year ago at this time – and a mere 90 townhouse units were started in all of 2022 across Metro Vancouver.

For residential investors, the consistent housing shortage is a blessing, which is why Metro Vancouver has become a “buy and hold” housing environment. Owners know that the law of supply and demand ensures that home prices will keep increasing. So they wait it out. In markets where sales levels are declining, an increase in new listings would add to the active listing count and provide downward pressure on prices. 

That’s not the Metro Vancouver market, where sales are turning back up.

Any increase in new listings will be absorbed by buyers. With the level of competition we are now seeing in the market, buyers are craving listings and competing for different product types in different areas. Active listing counts are up about 500 since the end of December. Absorption rates today are twice what they were in a similar market in 2019, and are only held in check by the lack of homes on the market.

The bottom line: Greater Vancouver listings are scarce at a time when they should be double what they are. 

Prior to 2015, having 15,000 to 20,000 active listings in Greater Vancouver was the norm. Since then, we’ve barely scratched above 15,000 and right now we are at half that level. Restrictive zoning and slow-moving development approvals continue to barricade supply. And without that supply, a seller’s markets will continue, at whatever level of demand we have in the market. 

A look at the Regional housing numbers: 

Greater Vancouver: Total housing sales were up 77% compared to January 2023, while new listings were up 5%. The result was the composite benchmark home price posted the first month-over-month increase since May of 2022, rising 1.1% to $1,123,400. Detached house prices rose 0.7%, to $1,813,000; condo apartment prices rose 1.6% to $732,200; and townhouse benchmark prices were up 1.8%, compared to a month earlier, to $1,038,500. Active Listings were at 8,283 at month-end compared to 7,062 at that time last year and 7,862 at the end of January. Greater Vancouver’s detached housing market is now seen as a balanced market, with both condo apartments and townhouses in a seller’s market. The total sales-to-new-listing ratio in February was 51%, compared to 30% in January 2023 and 62% in February 2022.

Fraser Valley: The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 898 sales in February, an increase of 43.5% over January 2023, but still only half as many as were recorded a year ago. February new listings were up by 5.7% over January 2023 to 1,938 but 48.25% lower than in February 2023. Active listings were up 7% from a month earlier. The composite benchmark home price in February was $946,700 up 0.5%  from January 2023 and the first month-over-month increase since April 2022. Further, the benchmark price is 36% higher than in pre-pandemic February 2020. 

Vancouver Westside: February total sales, at 316, were up 63% from January 2023 and would have been even higher if more listings were available. One Westside house had 16 offers on it at the end of February, an indication of the demand. New listings were down 1% from January, but active listings as of month end were at 1,923, representing about a six-month supply. The sales-to-new-listing ratio is running at 44%, up from 27% a month earlier. There is a severe shortage of townhouses, with nearly half the 91 new listings selling in February at a median price of more than $1.48 million. No new townhouses have started construction this year on the Westside. The February benchmark price for a detached house on the Westside jumped 2.7% from a month earlier, to $3,103,100.

Vancouver East Side: Total housing sales in February, at 198, were up 68% from January 2023, but new listings were up by only 6%, while the sales-to-new-listing ratio reached a balanced 52%, up from 33% in January, and close to 55% ratio in the hot market a year ago. This is a market to watch. Benchmark prices were up in all sectors from a month earlier, led by a 2.9% surge in townhouse prices to $1,052,500. The supply of total residential listings is down to five months supply, with condos in seller’s market conditions. Benchmark condo prices were up 1% from January, to $683,600, based on 101 sales, double the number a month earlier.

North Vancouver: This perpetually under supplied market is a seller’s market with only a three-months supply of listings, even with growth in active listings of townhouses and condos. A total of 150 sales were seen in February, up 83% from a month earlier, but active listings were just 20 homes higher, at 436 units. With the sales-to-listing ratio at 59%, townhouse prices shot up 4.1% from January 2023, to $1,286200, and detached and condo benchmark prices were up nearly 2% from a month earlier.

West Vancouver: Sales increased 54%, month over month to 43 transactions, but because of a 21% spike in new listings, there is now a 10-month supply of homes, in this buyer’s market for detached houses. It remains a seller’s market for townhomes, because the supply is so low, perhaps one reason West Vancouver’s population is declining. West Van posted a modest decline in most prices compared to January, except for condo apartments, which were up 2.7% to a region-leading $1,228,900.

Richmond: Despite the angst in Richmond’s strata market – where an 800-unit development has gone into receivership and starts have plunged 80% from a year ago, total sales in February were up 89% from January. The benchmark composite home prices rose 2% from a month earlier with condos selling for $735,800; townhouses at $1,083,100; and detached houses at just over $2 million. With an overall sales-to-listing ratio of nearly 50%, the detached-house market is in balanced conditions, with a seller’s market building steam in the strata sector. 

Burnaby East: Total sales in February were 21, up 133% from a month earlier and the sales-to-listing ratio hit a stunning 105%, compared to a low of 20% in January 2023 and 52% in February of last year. This is a seller’s market on steroids with the composite benchmark price up 2.2% month-over-month to $1,102,900, the highest in Burnaby.

Burnaby North: With total sales up 113% from January 2023, to 134, and total active listings down 10%, this is also a seller’s market with a mere three-month supply of listings and a sales ratio of 66%. The saving grace is the high number of new condos coming to the market in the Brentwood-Gilmore area. The composite home price was up from January, led by a 2.4% surge in townhouse prices to $892,100.

Burnaby South: Many Burnaby buyers were southbound in February, driving total sales up 119% from a month earlier, to 118 transactions. Active listings were 377 at month end compared to 352 at the end of January, which translates to a three-month supply at the current sales pace. The composite benchmark price was up nearly 1% from January at $966,500. The sales-to-listing ratio is a healthy 57% with the strata sector in seller’s market conditions.

New Westminster: For buyers looking for scarce townhouses, the Royal City has a good selection. Only 3 townhouses sold in February and there is nine-month supply on the market. Benchmark townhouse prices, however, increased 4.4% from January 2023, to $932,200, the same price as in February 2023. Total housing sales in February were 65% higher than a month earlier, at 66, at new listings inched up by 1%. The overall sales-to-listing ratio is 62%, up from 38% in January 2023 with a buyer’s market for townhouse and condos and a balanced market for detached houses, where prices are up 2.4% or about $34,000 – from a month earlier at $1,418,100.

Coquitlam: It seems hard to understand with the amount of new multi-family construction over the past two years, but Coquitlam is seeing a shortage of strata homes. Coquitlam had one of the biggest turnarounds in February with sales up 116% compared to January. Townhouse sales went from 4 in January to 40 in February. With that, there is just a two-months of inventory for townhouses and condos. The composite benchmark price is up 0.7% from a month earlier, but townhouse prices rose 2.5% from January to $999,900. With an overall sales-to-listing ratio of 67%, this is a seller’s market for strata units and balanced in the detached sector.

Port Moody: Even with total listings of 200 at the end of February, and a significant increase in townhouse and condo listings, strata units are in a seller’s market, along with detached houses. There were more sales than new listings compared to January, with a 104% sales increase from the month previous, to 47 transactions while only 91 new listings in February compared to 103 in January. More than half (52%) of the new listings sold in February, while the composite benchmark price increased 1% to $1,093,100, the highest in the Tri-Cities. 

Port Coquitlam: There is only a one-month supply of townhouses with twice as many sales as new listings in February. Total housing sales reached 40, up a modest 18% from January 2023. The total supply of residential listings is down to four months, meaning a balanced market conditions for detached houses, with townhouses and condos in seller’s market conditions. The overall sales-to-listing ratio is a healthy 46% and the composite benchmark price has held steady (up 0.7%) for three months at $900,900.

Pitt Meadows: Sales didn’t budge month-over-month, with 15 transactions in February, while new listings fell 29% compared to January 2023. The total inventory remains at a four-month supply in this balanced market, with a sales-to-listing ratio of 55%. The composite benchmark home price fell 0.6% from January to $825,900.

Maple Ridge: Total housing sales in February were up 98% from January 2023 to 129 transactions, but new listings were down 4% from a month earlier. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 62%, the same as in February of last year and up from 30% in January 2023, this is a sellers’ market with just four months of inventory. Still, Maple Ridge plans to increase development cost charges this year to $41,000 for a new detached house, up from $22,465, and raise per-square-foot fees for new condo and townhouse units by 80%. The composite benchmark home price in February was up about 1% from January, at $918,300, but townhouse prices rose 3.5%, month over month, to $723,600.

Ladner: The townhouses market saw significant increases in sales and listings accounting for as many sales in February as detached and condos combined. Still, the total market was fairly brisk, with 27 transactions, up 69% from a month earlier and higher even than in February of last year. Townhouse prices spiked up 6.7% from January 2023 tied as the highest increase in Metro Vancouver – to $988,600. New listings were up 42% from a month earlier and there were 98 active listings as February ended. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 44%, this is a balanced market slanting towards a seller’s advantage for townhouses and condos.

Tsawwassen: Detached house listings were down 41% compared to January, while condos remain with a three-month supply. Detached houses and townhouses are in a balanced market. Total sales were rather tepid, at 25 transactions compared with 20 in January 2023 and 73 in February 2022. Perhaps buyers are tired of the back-and-forth Massey Tunnel replacement plan that doesn’t seem to ever get off (or under) the ground. This was noticeably absent from the recent provincial budget announcement and its three-year infrastructure plans. Despite a sales ratio of 47%, the composite benchmark price was down 3.7%, month-over-month, to $1,112,800, led by a sharp 7% drop in detached house prices.

Surrey: Benchmark home prices in Surrey were higher than in January, the first month-over-month increase since April of 2022. Detached house prices were up 0.7% to $1,503,200; townhouse prices rose 1% to $ $ 803,100 and condo apartment benchmark prices were up 1.4% to $522,700. The outlier is South Surrey-White Rock’s detached market, where prices slipped down 1.4% from January to $1,776,300, still the highest price in the Fraser Valley. With total Surrey sales up 61% from January 2023, at 132 transactions, and new listings up less than 15%, Surrey is considered a balanced market.

Kevin Skipworth
Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty