Oct 2023 Mid-Month DEXTER Realty - Market Report: Interest in Rates

Almost as anticipated as the Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate announcement next week, the mid-month Dexter Report is out to cast a light on the real estate market in Metro Vancouver. After a rise in listings in September, as is typical in October, seller interest in coming on the market is slowing. October should finish with less new listings than September but the difference between the two months won’t be as much as we typically see. More sellers are jumping off the fence then we would typically see this time of year, and thus active listing counts are creeping up. But what’s clear is that all markets throughout the Lower Mainland are behaving differently and not all housing types are the same. Some areas are still listing starved while others are seeing more moderate growth. Which means it is so important to do your homework when looking at buying or selling real estate. 

The fever around interest rates may emulate the William Shakespeare play “Much Ado About Nothing” when next week’s Bank of Canada Meeting decides on their key interest rate. After speculation through on whether they would raise the overnight rate again, the decline in the Consumer Price Index just released should be a signal to keep the rate as it is. That combined with a belief from many economists that the Bank of Canada has overreached with it’s rate increases, this could be the end of increases. Attention may now turn to when the decreases begin, possibly as early as next spring.

At mid-month in Greater Vancouver there have been 2,543 new listings, which is lower than the 2,982 new listings at mid-month in September, higher than the 2,331 new listings at mid-August and below the 2,741 new listings at the mid-point of July. It’s higher than October last year at mid-month when 2,376 new listings had come out and again higher than the mid-point of a busy October 2021 market where 2,231 new listings had come out with much higher sales.  The peak of listings totals has come in September, and we’ll see the monthly totals decline as we move through the rest of 2023. In looking at the projected total number of new listings for 2023, it is likely that this amount will be the lowest since 2002. But with the lower demand, we are still seeing a growth in the total number of active listings on the market with 11,471, compared to 11,382 at the end of September. More choice is available in the market right now for buyers, although at these levels it is still in balanced market conditions based on total supply and current sales. But some areas and product types have moved into a buyer’s market, so look carefully at market conditions depending on where you are and what you are looking for.

At the mid-point of October, there have been 1,026 sales in Greater Vancouver, an increase from September where there were 896 sales at the mid-point, a decline from 1,198 sales at the mid-point of August and a decline from the 1,295 sales at the mid-point of July. But at the mid-point of October last year, there were 1,026 sales as well. Buyers and sellers are both hesitant in this market, with the effects of higher interest rates weighing on both. Hints at a slowing economy and continued elevated prices for groceries are factoring in on consumers’ decisions as well. 

Sales to listings ratios crept back up in October so far. The Sales to Listings Ratio is at 40%, up from the mid-point of September, when the absorption rate of new listings was only 29% and compared to 51% at the mid-point of August and 43% at the mid-point of October last year. The additional listings are bringing that percentage down. As you move around the region that number changes though, with North Vancouver higher at 47%, Richmond at 46%, Burnaby North and South at 53%, Port Coquitlam at 60%, Pitt Meadows at 54% (while Maple Ridge is at 31%) and Ladner at 67%. The condo market is experiencing higher absorption rates as interest rate sensitive buyers look to that market to purchase. Detached homes had the lowest uptake in new listings as 37% of those that came on sold so far (up from 25% in September), while townhomes were slightly higher at 38% compared to 29% at mid-month in September and condos surging to 43% compared to 32% at the mid-point of September. 

Some areas to watch in October: Vancouver West is seeing sales at a faster pace in October, more so than other areas in the region with detached home sales already at 42 compared to 55 in all of September - with total active listings down from September due to these sales and less new listings. On Vancouver’s East Side new listings are tracking higher than September resulting in higher active listings, although townhouse/duplex sales so far in October are at the levels for all of September. North Vancouver sales are being driven by condos with a 68% absorption rate. West Van has seen a drop in active listings as new listings are down significantly so far in October, while Richmond has seen a decline in both sales and new listings – a lot of waiting going on there. New Westminster is showing stronger sales for detached compared to September, while in Coquitlam detached new listings are trending much lower and townhouse sales are trending up. Even with a 50% absorption rate in Coquitlam that area is seeing one of the highest rates of active listing increases. Port Moody, like Richmond is slower for sales and new listings and one of two areas where the absorption rate dropped – opportunity for buyers. In Port Coquitlam, the absorption rate for townhouses is at 100% - more supply please! Ladner and Tsawwassen are the tale of two different cities with Ladner experiencing a 67% absorption overall – 89% for detached while Tsawwassen is at a 39% absorption compared to 57% in October with only 14 sales overall compared to 42 in September. 

As we await the Bank of Canada announcement next week, the tone of the Bank of Canada could potentially breathe life into the market or make buyers and sellers hold on to their breath a little longer. But as demand continues to build and both buyers and sellers await that sign to act which likely will be when the interest rate story changes to declines, the market is sure to pick up and quite quickly. 

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver 

1,026 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
876 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
1,198 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
1,026 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
1,767 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
1,741 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

2,543 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
2,982 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
2,331 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
2,376 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
2,231 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
3,060 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 11,471 compared to 10,371 at mid-month in October 2022, and 10,831 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 40% compared to 43% at mid-month in October 2022 and 29% at mid-month in September 2023.

Vancouver West 

197 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
164 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
227 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
174 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
295 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
258 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

539 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
604 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
408 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
511 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
534 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
630 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 2,570 compared to 2,383 at mid-month in October 2022, and 2,411 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 37% compared to 43% at mid-month in October 2022 and 27% at mid-month in September 2023.

Vancouver East

112 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
78 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
120 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
109 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
204 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
192 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

325 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
337 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
239 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
249 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
255 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
395 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 1,249 compared to 1,100 at mid-month in October 2022, and 1,137 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 34% compared to 43% at mid-month in October 2022 and 23% at mid-month in September 2023.

North Vancouver

95 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
72 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
100 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
102 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
118 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
155 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

203 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
258 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
140 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
207 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
160 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
246 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 628 compared to 627 at mid-month in October 2022, and 580 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 47% compared to 49% at mid-month in October 2022 and 28% at mid-month in September 2023.

West Vancouver 

24 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
19 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
30 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
25 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
49 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
47 units sold at mid-month in October 2020
79 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
154 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
84 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
88 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
87 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
47 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 615 compared to 594 at mid-month in October 2022, and 613 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 30% compared to 28% at mid-month in October 2022 and 12% at mid-month in September 2023.

Richmond

120 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
112 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
150 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
136 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
234 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
173 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

261 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
334 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
291 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
236 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
284 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
325 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 1,260 compared to 1,281 at mid-month in October 2022, and 1,248 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 46% compared to 48% at mid-month in October 2022 and 34% at mid-month in September 2023.

Burnaby East 

9 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
10 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
12 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
10 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
23 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
22 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

30 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
32 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
25 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
26 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
17 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
70 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 107 compared to 78 at mid-month in October 2022, and 97 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 30% compared to 38% at mid-month in October 2022 and 34% at mid-month in September 2023.

Burnaby North 

73 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
58 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
75 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
57 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
87 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
84 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

138 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
146 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
123 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
124 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
102 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
165 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 573 compared to 432 at mid-month in October 2022, and 508 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 53% compared to 45% at mid-month in October 2022 and 40% at mid-month in September 2023.

Burnaby South 

71 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
53 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
66 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
67 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
103 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
72 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

134 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
147 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
126 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
144 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
126 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
157 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 522 compared to 462 at mid-month in October 2022, and 493 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 53% compared to 46% at mid-month in October 2022 and 36% at mid-month in September 2023.

New Westminster 

35 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
33 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
55 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
37 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
90 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
72 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

80 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
96 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
96 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
89 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
86 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
147 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 307 compared to 311 at mid-month in October 2022, and 306 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 44% compared to 41% at mid-month in October 2022 and 34% at mid-month in September 2023.

Coquitlam 

90 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
84 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
117 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
96 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
162 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
160 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

202 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
234 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
170 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
175 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
151 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
234 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 733 compared to 627 at mid-month in October 2022, and 660 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 45% compared to 54% at mid-month in October 2022 and 36% at mid-month in September 2023.

Port Moody

17 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
18 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
32 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
21 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
36 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
54 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

46 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
52 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
49 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
47 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
39 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
67 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 189 compared to 185 at mid-month in October 2022, and 185 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 37% compared to 44% at mid-month in October 2022 and 35% at mid-month in September 2023.

Port Coquitlam 

28 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
25 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
36 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
40 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
36 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
54 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

47 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
83 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
67 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
65 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
68 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
83 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 182 compared to 180 at mid-month in October 2022, and 198 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 60% compared to 61% at mid-month in October 2022 and 30% at mid-month in September 2023

Ladner 

14 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
13 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
11 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
8 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
14 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
24 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

21 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
30 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
17 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
21 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
24 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
25 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 115 compared to 101 at mid-month in October 2022, and 101 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 67% compared to 38% at mid-month in October 2022 and 43% at mid-month in September 2023.

Tsawwassen

14 units sold for far in October 2023 compared to
23 units sold so at mid-month in September 2023
16 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 
13 units sold at mid-month in October 2022
31 units sold at mid-month in October 2021
37 units sold at mid-month in October 2020

36 new listings so far in October 2023 compared to
39 new listings at mid-month in September 2023 
36 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 
36 new listings at mid-month in October 2022
39 new listings at mid-month in October 2021
59 new listings at mid-month in October 2020

Total active listings are at 179 compared to 185 at mid-month in October 2022, and 165 at mid-month in September 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 39% compared to 36% at mid-month in October 2022 and 59% at mid-month in September 2023.