Connie McGinley

Highlights of the July Dexter Report 

• Home prices are virtually unchanged in the past year

• Total sales in Greater Vancouver are up nearly 30% from July 2022

• Wily buyers take advantage of a summer sales slump 

• There are now 16,400 properties for sale across Metro Vancouver

• Vancouver density plan invites higher taxes for owners     

On July 25 the City of Vancouver recommended a massive rezoning of single-family neighbourhoods to create more of what is known as the “missing middle” housing. The province wants to make such ideological-driven rezoning mandatory in every city in British Columbia with legislation promised to come this fall.

The Vancouver concept would allow four to six homes to be built on most RS-zoned lots, or 60 percent of the city’s buildable land, according to the ‘senior green building planner’ for Vancouver. It also restricts the size of any new detached house. The policy, though, has forgotten the major player in the plan: detached house owners, many of whom want no part of it.

The City of Victoria passed a similar rezoning plan in January of this year. Seven months later not a single application has come forward from a detached house owner willing to turn their private land into a multi-unit rental complex.

Many detached house owners are not willing to risk their financial future and peace of mind by jumping on board a plan that they fear, rightly, will transform their quiet communities and expose them to the federal capital gains tax that could grab up to 50% of their real estate equity for investment properties.

Consider this. The average price of a Vancouver Westside detached house in July was nearly $4.3 million. If sold as a paid-for private residence, the capital gains tax would be zero. But, if the owner divided the house into four rentals and lived in one unit and then sold the property for the same price, the owner would be responsible for capital gains tax as the owner of the income-producing property.

As well, under Vancouver’s missing middle plan, the detached house owner could only produce a “below-market rental unit” or a secure rental unit (which means forever); or pay a “set-rate bonus payment” for the increased density as a market rental. There is no definition of what the bonus payment would be, but currently, in the Cambie area, it averages $135 per square foot for the extra space in a new development.

The house owner would also be subject to the GST on any new construction; would be required to build any new homes under Vancouver’s expensive and confusing “passive house” energy regulations; and would be subject to higher property taxes and utility costs yet would only be allowed to increase rents by 2% per year under provincial regulations. Private detached house owners are somehow, miraculously, expected to deliver what seasoned developers, city planners and other bureaucrats cannot: low-cost rentals in Vancouver.

The City of Vancouver will present its missing middle plan to public hearings in September. Expect a lot of discussion. 

Prices are not skyrocketing. 

There is a lot of media noise being tossed around about “skyrocketing” Greater Vancouver home prices. While true the Benchmark Price is up about 10% from January to July 2023, to $1,210,700, prices are just 0.5% higher compared to a year ago and in a dozen Greater Vancouver communities – including Burnaby North, Coquitlam, Tsawwassen and West Vancouver – composite prices are lower now than in July 2022. On the bellwether Westside of Vancouver, the July benchmark detached house price, at $3,458,000, was up just 1% from a year ago.

The benchmark condo price this July is $771,600, up 2.7% from last year, but condo prices in East Vancouver, Burnaby North and Burnaby East, arguably the most active condo markets in Greater Vancouver, are up less than 1% from July of last year, which should help convince more buyers to take advantage of the summer slowdown to get into the Greater Vancouver market now.

After peaking in May, sales have declined month by month since buyers have now faced two straight increases in the Bank of Canada rate. Greater Vancouver's total sales in July, at 2,455, were down from 2,988 in June to the lowest level since March. In the Fraser Valley, July sales fell nearly 30% from June 2023 and benchmark prices are up an average of 1% from a year ago. But even with the decline in sales transactions, buyers still want to buy, and many sellers are not desperate to sell.

As the summer continues, there will be more opportunities than we’ve seen over the last four months for buyers. With many people away or taking a break from the market, it’s the prime time to be a buyer. Inventories have increased, giving more options, especially in some areas.

The increase in the Bank of Canada rate and fixed rates bumping up over the last month or so have pulled some buyers from the market. Those with 60 to 90-day rate holds are trying to buy before those rate holds expire while others are content to wait out the increases in borrowing costs. With travel and the many local events returning occupying many people’s time, real estate is losing some of the attention it normally would get. Of course, the lack of resale inventory continues to challenge the market and while we wouldn’t expect to see it increase during the summer months, the number of new listings dropped while absorption rates remained close to the levels we’ve seen this year, and in some areas increased. July saw 4,757 new listings after June produced 5,466 new listings after there were 5,776 new listings in May. Year over year, new listings were higher with 4,067 new listings produced last July which is helping would-be buyers in the market.

Don’t expect the higher interest rates to result in more listings. Sales of residential land to developers have fallen 80% in the past year, largely due to rising financing costs, which will stunt delivery of new strata homes into next year, at least. As well, the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada and the Federal Government have issued guidelines for Canadian banks to help homeowners facing significant increases in mortgage costs. Measures such as waiving penalties to break mortgages and increasing amortization periods to lower payments are on the table. 

Banks do not want to own homes, so don’t expect increased rates to lead to a major rise in mortgage foreclosures or distressed sales. 

Instead, serious buyers should be ignoring summer temptations and shopping through the 10,301 active listings now on the market. Buyers can take advantage of a shallow slump and good selection to secure a property now.

Regional numbers for July 2023 

Greater Vancouver: Total transactions reached 2,455 in July 2023, a 28.9% increase from the 1,904 sales recorded in July 2022. This was 15.6% below the 10-year seasonal average and the lowest level in five months. Total inventory at month end, 10,a301 properties, has moved to a 4-month supply, with detached up to 6 months and into balanced market territory. Townhouses and condos are still at a 3-month supply, though price is key for buyers right now. Looking at year-over-year, sales-to-listings ratios are up while condos remained the same. Overall, the 52% absorption in July is showing strength considering the increase in fixed and variable-rate mortgages. The Benchmark Price for all residential properties is currently $1,210,700. This represents a 0.5 per cent increase over July 2022 and a 0.6 per cent increase compared to June 2023.

Fraser Valley: July new listings, at 2,855, were down 16.6% compared to June 2023 but 19.7% higher than July 2022 levels, and virtually on par with the 10-year average. Active listings climbed by 4.3% over June, bringing the total inventory for sale to 6,199 properties. Sales totalled 1,368 in July, a decrease of 29.3% from June 2023, but still 37.8% above July 2022. Benchmark detached and townhouse prices were down about 2% from a year ago, with detached at $1,543,300, townhouses at $850,300 , while condo apartment prices increased 0.8% year-to-year at $555,500.

Vancouver Westside: Total sales in July, at 438, were down 17% from a month earlier and 19% higher than July 2022. Despite a 10% surge in benchmark detached house prices since January, prices are up just 1% from a year ago at $3,458,000. Competition is fierce for anything under $3 million. In Kitsilano earlier this week there were only 8 detached homes listed below $3 million, and just 4 in Point Grey, with multiple offers being seen. Active listings were 2,366 at month end compared to 2,453 at that time last year and 2,249 at the end of June. New listings in July were down 7% compared to June 2023. Condo apartments dominated July sales with 325 transactions, and benchmarked at $866,300, up 4% from a year ago. The supply of total residential listings is up to 5-month supply and sales to listings ratio is 43% in this balanced market.

Vancouver East Side: The East Side story in July included a 12% dip in sales from a month earlier and a 21% decline from May 2023, with 286 transactions. Detached house prices flatlined from June 2023, at $1,897,200, but are up 3.7% from a year ago. Condo prices are just 0.5% higher than in July 2022, at $717,700. Active Listings were at 1,082 at month end compared to 1,191 at that time last year and 1,082 at the end of June. New listings in July were down 18% compared to June 2023. This is a seller’s market with just a 4-month supply and sales-to-listing ratio of 57%. 

North Vancouver: North Van remains a strong seller’s market, especially in the condo sector, which has only a 2-month supply of inventory and a 68% sales-to-listing ratio. The benchmark condo price is $814,400, which has not moved much (up 2%) in a year, despite the robust sales. A total of 185 properties sold in July and sales have tracking down since May. Active listings were at 530 at month end compared to 573 at that time last year and 553 at the end of June; New Listings in July were down 21% compared to June 2023.

West Vancouver: Total sales were 47 in July as the summer siesta affected even the most prestigious market in Metro. This is a buyer’s market with more than 600 active listings and sales ratio in the mid-20% range and a 13-month supply of properties for sale. The Benchmark Price is a north of $2.6 million and the typical detached house sold in July for $3,241,000, down 4.2% from a year earlier.

Richmond: Richmond should be benefitting from Canada’s immigration surge but there is a disconnect in Ottawa: there is a foreign homebuyer ban for two year and no one in charge apparently realized that 500,000 newcomers may need a place to live. There is little relief in sight: when the federal cabinet was shuffled the former immigration minister became the new housing minister. Richmond, the most multi-ethnic enclave in B.C., has seen housing sales drop 26% over the past two months to 294 in July and new listings were down 15% from a month earlier. This remains a seller’s market, though, with just a 3-month supply, a sales ratio of 53% and the Benchmark Price up 2.6% year-over-year to $1,118,300.

Burnaby East: Sales in July, at 47, were lower than even three years ago and new listings dropped sharply 39% from June 2023. Still, with a sales-to-listing ratio of 64% from a limited supply, this qualifies as a seller’s market. Condos are the market maker here, as in most of Burnaby, but the benchmark condo price is frozen, rising just 0.7% over the last 12 months to $803,700 in July.

Burnaby North: Total sales in July were 160, down from 170 in June 2023, but, up from 29% compared to July 2022. Active Listings were at 481 at month end compared to 475 at that time last year and 440 at the end of June. A seller’s market with a 3-month supply and a sales ratio of 55%, detached houses are the only sector posting year-over-year price gains, with detached prices up 2.4% to just over $2 million. Townhouse prices, by comparison, are down 2.7% year-over-year and condo benchmarks have flatlined at $747,000. The sales ratio is 55% but this more a reflection of supply than demand.

Burnaby South: Total sales wilted 40% over the past two months and July was far from hot with transactions at 139, lower even than in July of 2019 but up 10% from July 2022. The Benchmark Price inched up 1.1% from June 2023 to $1,135,000. There is a tight supply of 457 properties for sale and the sales ratio is running at 59%, the lowest July pace in three years.

New Westminster: The secret is out as buyers have found that the Royal City is one of the best-priced markets in Metro Vancouver. Detached sales, at 119, are up from June 2023 and up 127% year-over-year with a 97% absorption rate. The condo market saw a growth in new listing in July compared to June but, like townhomes, remain in a seller’s market with 2-month supply. The Benchmark Price in New Westminster is $846,400, up 2% from a year ago.

Coquitlam: Sales in July, at 223, were down 16% from a month earlier and 21% from May, but up 57% year-over-year in this seller’s market. The big mover is townhouses, with sales up 157% year-over-year and active listings down from June. The townhouse benchmark is $1,061,900, down nearly 2% from a year ago and it dropped a further 1% in July compared to a month earlier. Detached house prices are holding firm at $1,795,400, as is the overall sales-to-listing ratio of 55%,

Port Moody: Two big residential developments have apparently been approved, including the three-tower Westport Village on the former Andres Wine site, that has been in 18 years in planning. It will supply hundreds of new housing units, eventually, to a market with just a 2-month supply of listings. With total sales of 85 in July, down from one and two months earlier, and a sales ratio of 77%, this is a strong seller’s market. The Benchmark Price is down 6.5% from a year ago at $1,121,500.

Port Coquitlam: Buyers scrambling for more affordability can’t find enough supply in the lowest-priced TriCities market where the Benchmark Price in July was $975,800. Condos are down to a one-month supply. The lack of inventory, just 172 total active listings, has stunted sales, which dropped to 73 in July, the lowest level for that month in at least four years, despite a sales-to-listing-ration of 60%.

Pitt Meadows: The sales-to-listing ratio was 52% in this seller’s market where buyers are chasing too-few listings. With new listings falling, there were only 74 properties on the market at the end of July after 24 sales in the month. Despite a price rally this year, the benchmark detached house price is just 2.4% higher than a year earlier, at $1,355,900. Townhouse prices are down 1.8%, year-over-year, to $836,6000.

Maple Ridge: Total sales have been tracking down since May, but reached 143 transactions in July, up 32% from July 2022. At $739,600, Maple Ridge has the lowest priced townhouses in Metro Vancouver. The benchmark detached house is down 2.4% from a year ago, at $1,307,400. With 622 active listings and a sales success ratio of 50%, this is a seller’s market with stable pricing.

Ladner: There were 22 fresh townhome listings in July compared to just 7 in June 2023, as the benchmark price increased 4.1% from a year earlier to $987,500.
Detached sales suffered from higher lending rates, though as sales dropped to 14 from 23 transactions in June 2023 even as the benchmark price jumped 16% so far this year to $1,50,2000. Prices are still slightly below a year earlier. There are 102 total active listings and a sales ratio of 45% in this seller’s market.

Tsawwassen: Buyers aren’t the problem in Tsawwassen, with an overall sales ratio of 58% and condominium absorption up to 69% from 63% in June. The problem is supply with new listings dropping 9% from June 2023, and just 161 active listings available. The Benchmark Price is down about 2% across the board compared to a year earlier, to $1,222,000, with detached houses at $1,550,600, despite price increase since February. This is considered a balanced market.

Surrey: Detached house sales fell 34% in July from a year earlier but were up 30% from June in a perplexing rally considering recent interest rate hikes. Detached prices, however, have barely moved, up 1.1% from July 2022 to $1,683,300. Townhouse and condo sales are down double-digits from a year ago, at, respectively, $893,000 and $555,000 in July. The Fraser Valley Real Estate chairman summed up the Valley market well: “Summer is typically a slower period for the real estate sector and the higher interest rates are contributing to the market slowdown,” said Narinder Bains “We’re seeing less traffic as buyers and sellers put a pause on decisions and we expect this trend to continue until the fall cycle.”

Highlights

• May average home price $200,000 higher than in January

• May home sales-to-listing ratio a sizzling 59%

• Total sales are the highest this year and higher than in May 2022

• Surrey detached new listings were up 53% from April 2023

• Overall higher listings may point to a price plateau this summer 

After five months that defied most predictions and pundits, the Metro Vancouver housing market has righted itself - as we’ve been saying the last few months, while quickly shifting to a seller’s market. But the potential is there to be more balanced between buyers and sellers as we sail into the summer.

May exposed a slight tilt in that balance in favour of buyers, with sellers about to face a more competitive environment with the increase in new listings that happened in May. And depending on what happens with the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday, that could change some buyers’ ability to compete.

Back in January and before – when the headlines were full of predictions of a recession and a continued housing downturn - we urged homebuyers to jump into the market to take advantage of the dip. Since then, the average home price in Greater Vancouver has shot up by $200,000 and the sales-to-listing ratio has risen from 29% to 61% in April before settling to 59% in May, close to the hottest markets in 2021 and early 2022.

We based our forecast not only on the strength of the regional economy but on decades of experience as real estate professionals at Dexter Realty. We have seen deep downturns and heady highs before, so we understand the patterns and how quickly it can change. 

While May 2023 marked the fifth straight month-over-month increase in sale and price, it also sent the first signals of a chance for a market shift.

While we are still in a seller’s market in most areas and property types, if the increase in new listings continues, this will favour buyers. And perhaps some buyers are waiting for the June 7 Bank of Canada announcement, which could affect mortgage rates.

The evidence is in the number of sales and listings in May, and when they occurred. It is all about momentum.

In May 2023 a total of 3,411 residential properties sold in Greater Vancouver, not only the highest sales of this year but the first month in 2023 that sales were higher than the same time a year earlier and the first time this trend occurred in the last few years. 

The average (not benchmark) home price in May reached $1,315,617, the highest level since April 2022 and up nearly 3 per cent from May of 2022.  

This would all point to a seller’s market, except that, unlike previous months this year, May sales were slightly lower in the second half of the month compared to the previous two-week period to start May. At the same time, new listings increased, rising from 2,909 at mid-month to 5,776 at month’s end, compared to 4,399 in April 2023. May tends to be the most active month of the spring market, so we could see that shift come June. 

In the Fraser Valley, new listings in May, at 3,533, were 42% higher than in April (with detached listings up a startling 61%) while sales increased just 10% month-over-month to 1,711. 

So, as May ended, we were seeing parallel momentums: many more listings and perhaps the peak of sales.

While the last few months have been characterized by multiple offers and increasing prices, we will now see more competition among sellers. It will take many more listings to ease the competition amongst buyers but May was a start.

With the increase in listings comes some great opportunities for buyers. Work with an experienced REALTOR® who can sniff out the right property that’s gone under the radar. This isn’t 2021 when prices went wild. There is now a sense of control, and, for some properties, buyers are not willing to compete or take on the price that sellers are asking. 

Buyers must practice patience now, which is difficult after months of low inventory. We are going to see listings increase, the sales-to-listing ratio settling down and more competitive pricing offered by sellers. In short, hopefully we’ll see some balance come into the market for the first time in in three years. 

Of course, all real estate markets are unique, and not all will follow the same trajectory immediately.

There were 9,293 active listings at month end, above the 8,790 at the end of April. Yet some areas had fewer active listings in May than a month earlier, so it’s important to look locally when doing direct comparisons. 

Vancouver East saw a slight uptick in the sales-to-listings ratio while North Vancouver maintained its high rate at 66%. Both locations were called out by the provincial government for not doing enough to supply housing in its recently released list of the municipalities that aren’t building enough homes. Port Moody, on the heels of less sales in May compared to April, saw its absorption rate fall from 91% to 65%.  

Ladner led the way in May with a 108% sales-to-listings ratio as there were more sales than new listings there. Not surprising, Delta was also cited by the province for not supplying enough homes. 

Overall Greater Vancouver remains with 3-months’ supply of listings – and with the current number of sales we’d need to double the number of active listings to get into a truly balanced market, but listings are finally increasing.

Best advice to buyers: Work with your trusted REALTOR®, get pre-approved for financing, narrow your search and be ready when your agent finds that ideal property. Do your homework and keep within your budget. 

Best advice to sellers: Prices have risen 1.5% per month this year, but do not expect that to be automatic. A property priced right will attract a slew of potential buyers (it is not uncommon to see 40 people through a weekend open house) but if it is priced above the market or not showhouse ready, buyers now have the option to move on to the next new listings.

A summary of the regional markets: 

Greater Vancouver: A total of 3,411 residential properties sold in May, up 24% from a month earlier and, for the first time this year, higher than in the same month in 2022, when 2,947 transactions were counted. The surge in prices surprised us all, even the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). “Back in January, few people would have predicted prices to be up as much as they are – ourselves included,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “Our forecast projected prices to be up by about 2% at year-end. Instead, home prices are already up about 6% or more across all home types.”

As of May 23, the composite benchmark price was $1,118,000, up 1.3% from a month earlier; the detached house price was up 1.8% to $ $1,953,600. While townhouse prices remained virtually the same as in April, at just over $1 million, condo apartment prices were up 1.1% month to month to $760,800.

Active Listings were at 9,293 at month end compared to 8,790 at the end of April; new listings in May were up 31% compared to April 2023. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 59% compared to 62% in April 2022 and 45% in May 2022.

Fraser Valley:  Total Valley sales reached 1,711 in May 2023, up 25% from May 2022 and 10% higher than in April 2023. With new listings up 42% from April, there were total active listings of 5,588 at the end of May, 20% higher than a month before. The benchmark composite home price in May was $961,702, up 6.7% from April 2023 and 3% higher than in May 2022.  

Vancouver Westside: Metro’s bellwether housing market saw 624 sales in May, up 33% from a month earlier and 7% higher than in May 2022. The May 2023 benchmark detached house price has increased 5.7% (or $193,000) in the past six months and took another 0.5% step up from April to $3,338,800. Townhouses sold for $1,457,500, down 3% from April, and condo apartments sold in May 2023 at a benchmark of $849,800, up 4.8% over the last three months. Active listings were 2,115 at month end compared to 2,460 at that time last year and 1,992 at the end of April, but new listings in May were up 40% compared to April 2023. With a 3-month supply of total residential listings, the sales-to- listings ratio is a healthy 53% compared to 56% in April 2023 and 46% in May 2022. 

Vancouver East Side: Vancouver is one of the cities named as needing to increase new home starts and it is easy to understand, since East Vancouver, like the Westside, also has just a 3-month supply and a sales-to-listing ratio above 50%. The problem is new homes are more expensive, largely because of government fees and taxes, which have increased sharply. A recent study showed a typical new $840,000 condo apartment in Vancouver includes $327,565 in government costs. An Eastside resale condo had a benchmark price of $707,000 in May, up 1.9% from a month earlier, while townhouses were at $1,109,100, the same as in April, and detached houses sold in May for at a benchmark of $1,822,700, up 2.5% from a month before. Total May sales were 360, up 35% from a month earlier and 13% higher than in May 2022. Active Listings were at 1,006 at month end compared to 1,173 at that time last year and 939 at the end of April. This is a full-on seller’s market.

North Vancouver: Total housing sales in May were 288, up 32% from a month earlier and 3% above May 2022. The composite benchmark home price is $1,397,500, up 5.5% from six months ago and 1.8% higher than in April 2023. While new listings increased 32% from April, total active listings were 514 at the end of May, representing just a 2-months’ supply of housing, with townhouses down to a 1-month inventory. The sales-to-listing ratio has held steady at 66% for two months. The benchmark price for a detached house is now just 4% below May 2022, and, at $2,269.400, the highest level this year.

West Vancouver: The benchmark price of a detached house in West Vancouver in May was nearly unchanged from six months ago, at $3,111,600. Total housing sales, mostly detached houses, were 80 in May, up 16% from April 2023 and 16% higher than in May 2022. With 529 total active listings, there is a 7-month supply in a balanced market where the sales-to-listing ratio is 35%.

Richmond: Two large strata projects in Richmond totaling 1,200 units have been cancelled, the latest the 400-condo Minora Square on May 26, where pre-sale buyer deposits are being refunded. Perhaps a resale condo is a safer bet, since Richmond has also raised new condo development cost charges to around $25 per square foot. In May, a total of 396 homes sold in Richmond, leaving a total inventory of 1,043 properties (a drop from 1,602 at the end of April), or about a 3-month supply, with a 61% sales-to-listing ratio. Prices are rising sharply. The benchmark detached house price is up 7.7% since December 2022, at $2,189,600; and the benchmark condo price in the same period is up 9.6% to $747,00. Townhouse prices are 0.2% higher than a year ago, at $1,119,900.

Burnaby East: Burnaby East saw 39 home sales in May, up from both April 2023 and May 2022 and it now has 90 active listings. With a sales ratio of 57%, the benchmark home price is up 4% since the start of the year, at $1,159,600. This is a seller’s market with just a 2-month supply of homes on the market.

Burnaby North: Burnaby has the most new housing in the works across the region, with a total of 10,630 new strata units envisioned in four massive projects from Brentwood to the Edmonds area, according to an open house May 30 at Burnaby City Hall. All four sites require rezoning. However, Burnaby also wants to increase development fees to help cover the cost of an extended array of infrastructure, including firehalls, RCMP police stations, homeless shelters and “composting and organic processing facilities,” which will add to new strata prices. The new homes are needed. Burnaby North has just a 2-month supply of active listings and they are selling at a pace of 63% per month. The benchmark condo price is now $805,800 and townhouses sell for $902,200, both up about 6% from the first of this year. 

Burnaby South: Total units sold in May were 233, up 8% from a month earlier and 43% higher than in May 2022. The benchmark composite home price is up 5.5% since January 1, at $1,112,300; and detached house prices are up 8% in the same period to $2,177,100, the highest in Burnaby. New listings in May were up 20% compared to April 2023 but down 7% compared to May 2022. The supply of total residential listings, at 404, is steady at a 2 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) with a sales-to-listings ratio of 73%. 

New Westminster: The benchmark price for a detached house in the Royal City was $1,525,800 in May, up 5% from the start of 2023, but the overall composite price remains among the lowest in Metro, at $827,600. A total of 142 residential properties sold in May, 26% higher than a month earlier and up 27% from May 2022.  Active Listings were at 258 at month end compared to 313 at that time last year and 238 at the end of April. This is about a 2-month supply as the sales-to-new-listing ratio has been running at 70% in both May and April. 

Coquitlam: Total May sales reached 284, up 35% from April 2023 and 16% higher compared to May 2022. Active Listings were at 555 at month end compared to 642 at that time last year and 495 at the end of April; new listings in May were up 38% compared to April 2023, perhaps because sellers see what is happening. The benchmark home price has increased 4.7% so far this year to $1,114,900 and the sales-to-listing ratio has been over 60% for four months. This is a strong seller’s market.

Port Moody: This Tri-City community has a history of slow development, and it is on the list of cities where the province wants to see more housing starts. Port Moody now charges $33,453 per detached or duplex lot in development fees and tacks from $11 to $14 per square onto new strata units, so that will add to new home prices. Right now there is just a 2-month supply with only 184 active listings. Benchmark home prices are still 9% below May 2022, at $1,112,300. The sales to listing ratio, though, was 65% in May and 91% in April, so supply could disappear quickly. 

Port Coquitlam: Total units sold in May were 91, up from 76 in April 2023 and the very same at in May 2022, but the composite benchmark home price is down 6.9% year-over-year, at $951,800. Detached houses were benchmarked in May at $1,392,100, up 8.5% from January 1, but still 8% lower than a year ago. While new listings in May were up 89% from April 2023, there are only 153 active listings, enough to last about two months, with a sales-to-listing ratio running at 62%.

Pitt Meadows: Just 30 homes sold in May, but that was 44% better than April 2023 and higher than the 28 sales in May 2022. Detached home prices, while lower than last year, have soared 10% from the start of this year to a 2023 high of $1,274,800 in May. Active Listings were at 71 at month end compared to 84 at that time last year and at the end of April; New Listings in May were down 17% compared to April 2023 and the hot sales-to-listings ratio of 86% shows the current supply may not last long.

Maple Ridge: With 218 sales in May, total transactions were up 35% from a month earlier and 23% higher than in May 2022. The benchmark detached house price has increased 7.6% over the past three months to $1,261,700, with townhouse prices up to $768,100 after a 2.4% increase from a month earlier. The post-COVID slump in Maple Ridge appears over, with a sales-to-listing ratio in May of 63% and 62% in April in what has become a seller’s market with 539 active listings available.

Ladner: Delta is another of the Metro region cities called out by the province for not building enough new homes. Ladner, for example, only has 85 active listings (down from 100 at the end of April) and the May sales-to-new-listing ratio was 108% and new listings were down 14% from April 2023, while sales increased 26% to 54 transactions. The benchmark home price in Ladner is up 7.2% since the start of the year, at $1,144,200. There were more strata sales than new listings in May, which saw townhouse benchmark prices rise 10.4% so far this year to $973,800. Condo benchmark prices are at $704,800 in May, up less than 2% since January, however. 

Tsawwassen: Total units sold in May were 62 up 15% compared to April 2023, up 44% higher than in May 2022. Active listings were steady at 166 at month end compared to 165 at that time last year and 167 at the end of April; New Listings in May were up 23% compared to April 2023. Total residential listings are at a 3 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and the sales to listings ratio of 68% compares to 73% in April 2023. The benchmark home price in May was $1,221,900, up 5.6% from the first of this year but nearly 9% below the price in May 2022. Townhouse sales are particularly slow and the benchmark price of a townhouse, at $1,005,700 in May, has barely budged in two months.

Surrey: B.C.’s second-biggest city saw 855 total sales in May, almost evenly divided among detached, townhouse and condo properties, but there the similarity ends. Detached sales, at 284, were up 44% from a year earlier and 11.4% from April 2023. The average detached price was $1,784,000 in May, up 8% from a month earlier. There were 246 townhouse sales, up 8% from a year earlier and 14% higher than a month earlier, while the average townhouse price was up just 0.3% from April 2023 to $878,396. Condo apartment sales, at 225, were up 1.8% year to year, and 1% month to month, while the average price was up 3.3% from last year and 6.6% from April 2023, at $560,180.

Highlights of Dexter Realty’s February 2023 Report 

• Prices increased month-over-month for the first time since May 2022

• Housing sales are up 77% from January; new listings are up just 5%.

• Multiple offers are being seen on Westside detached houses. 

• Top townhouse market: New Westminster. 

• Undersupplied North Vancouver is now a seller’s market.

The last three years have been an anomaly for housing markets around the world and Greater Vancouver is no exception. That is why it is virtually useless to compare our current, back-to-reality environment with what was happening a year or two years ago during a once-in-a-century event.

In 2021, we were in the grip of a global pandemic and a home-buying frenzy with mortgage rates at record lows. In February 2022, housing sales and prices hit a white-hot peak just before the federal government hosed it down with the first of eight straight interest rate increases through the Bank of Canada.

Today, in February 2023, the panic buying is history, mortgage rates have stabilized, and buyers are back into the first normal housing market in four years. Driven by buyer demand and low supply, February marked the first month-to-month home price increase in nine months

Greater Vancouver housing sales, at 1,824 transactions in February, were up 77% from January 2023 and 21% higher than in February 2019, before the whole pandemic-influenced housing boom-and-bust began. February sales were also higher than in November and December 2022, and, we believe, signal the start of a strong spring selling season.

Buyers are already competing with other buyers for far fewer listings. The number of new listings in February was the lowest for that month going back to pre-1991, much the same as it was in January. Compared to January 2023, listings were only up 5%. 

But, since sales have been slower over the past 10 months, a total of 8,283 homes were on the market at the of February, above the 7,862 active listings at the end of January and a few hundred more than in December 2022. 

With buyers flowing back into the market, immigration hitting record levels and interest rates settling down, this appears a prime time to encourage housing starts. However, governments at all levels appear to be doing their best to stunt new home construction.

The federal government has banned foreign buyers for two years, including those investing in residential land, if the developer has less than 97% Canadian ownership. For example, a 3,000-unit Burnaby residential development, now under construction, would not be allowed today because the developer is based out of London, England. The recent collapse of major condo developers in Metro Vancouver could be traced to the ban’s impact on companies with as little as a 3% foreign ownership. This has put thousands of new homes at risk.

The B.C. government is spending $500 million to stop or stall the private redevelopment of 50 and 60-year-old rental buildings into modern, higher-density housing projects.

Metro municipalities are jacking up development cost charges, even as housing starts fall. Among the examples is Richmond, where housing starts so far in 2023 total just 73 units, down 80% from the 381 starts at the same time a year ago. Richmond is raising DCC rates on single-family lots by $20,000 to $61,138, and raising the DCC rate for condo apartments and townhouses by 43% to more than $34 per square foot. This means that a modest new townhouse of 1,200 square feet will now cost about $41,000 just in city development fees. 

All governments preach about addressing the supply of ‘missing middle’ housing for families, which translates as townhouses. Yet only 3 townhouse units have started so far this year in the City of Vancouver, compared to just 21 units a year ago at this time – and a mere 90 townhouse units were started in all of 2022 across Metro Vancouver.

For residential investors, the consistent housing shortage is a blessing, which is why Metro Vancouver has become a “buy and hold” housing environment. Owners know that the law of supply and demand ensures that home prices will keep increasing. So they wait it out. In markets where sales levels are declining, an increase in new listings would add to the active listing count and provide downward pressure on prices. 

That’s not the Metro Vancouver market, where sales are turning back up.

Any increase in new listings will be absorbed by buyers. With the level of competition we are now seeing in the market, buyers are craving listings and competing for different product types in different areas. Active listing counts are up about 500 since the end of December. Absorption rates today are twice what they were in a similar market in 2019, and are only held in check by the lack of homes on the market.

The bottom line: Greater Vancouver listings are scarce at a time when they should be double what they are. 

Prior to 2015, having 15,000 to 20,000 active listings in Greater Vancouver was the norm. Since then, we’ve barely scratched above 15,000 and right now we are at half that level. Restrictive zoning and slow-moving development approvals continue to barricade supply. And without that supply, a seller’s markets will continue, at whatever level of demand we have in the market. 

A look at the Regional housing numbers: 

Greater Vancouver: Total housing sales were up 77% compared to January 2023, while new listings were up 5%. The result was the composite benchmark home price posted the first month-over-month increase since May of 2022, rising 1.1% to $1,123,400. Detached house prices rose 0.7%, to $1,813,000; condo apartment prices rose 1.6% to $732,200; and townhouse benchmark prices were up 1.8%, compared to a month earlier, to $1,038,500. Active Listings were at 8,283 at month-end compared to 7,062 at that time last year and 7,862 at the end of January. Greater Vancouver’s detached housing market is now seen as a balanced market, with both condo apartments and townhouses in a seller’s market. The total sales-to-new-listing ratio in February was 51%, compared to 30% in January 2023 and 62% in February 2022.

Fraser Valley: The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 898 sales in February, an increase of 43.5% over January 2023, but still only half as many as were recorded a year ago. February new listings were up by 5.7% over January 2023 to 1,938 but 48.25% lower than in February 2023. Active listings were up 7% from a month earlier. The composite benchmark home price in February was $946,700 up 0.5%  from January 2023 and the first month-over-month increase since April 2022. Further, the benchmark price is 36% higher than in pre-pandemic February 2020. 

Vancouver Westside: February total sales, at 316, were up 63% from January 2023 and would have been even higher if more listings were available. One Westside house had 16 offers on it at the end of February, an indication of the demand. New listings were down 1% from January, but active listings as of month end were at 1,923, representing about a six-month supply. The sales-to-new-listing ratio is running at 44%, up from 27% a month earlier. There is a severe shortage of townhouses, with nearly half the 91 new listings selling in February at a median price of more than $1.48 million. No new townhouses have started construction this year on the Westside. The February benchmark price for a detached house on the Westside jumped 2.7% from a month earlier, to $3,103,100.

Vancouver East Side: Total housing sales in February, at 198, were up 68% from January 2023, but new listings were up by only 6%, while the sales-to-new-listing ratio reached a balanced 52%, up from 33% in January, and close to 55% ratio in the hot market a year ago. This is a market to watch. Benchmark prices were up in all sectors from a month earlier, led by a 2.9% surge in townhouse prices to $1,052,500. The supply of total residential listings is down to five months supply, with condos in seller’s market conditions. Benchmark condo prices were up 1% from January, to $683,600, based on 101 sales, double the number a month earlier.

North Vancouver: This perpetually under supplied market is a seller’s market with only a three-months supply of listings, even with growth in active listings of townhouses and condos. A total of 150 sales were seen in February, up 83% from a month earlier, but active listings were just 20 homes higher, at 436 units. With the sales-to-listing ratio at 59%, townhouse prices shot up 4.1% from January 2023, to $1,286200, and detached and condo benchmark prices were up nearly 2% from a month earlier.

West Vancouver: Sales increased 54%, month over month to 43 transactions, but because of a 21% spike in new listings, there is now a 10-month supply of homes, in this buyer’s market for detached houses. It remains a seller’s market for townhomes, because the supply is so low, perhaps one reason West Vancouver’s population is declining. West Van posted a modest decline in most prices compared to January, except for condo apartments, which were up 2.7% to a region-leading $1,228,900.

Richmond: Despite the angst in Richmond’s strata market – where an 800-unit development has gone into receivership and starts have plunged 80% from a year ago, total sales in February were up 89% from January. The benchmark composite home prices rose 2% from a month earlier with condos selling for $735,800; townhouses at $1,083,100; and detached houses at just over $2 million. With an overall sales-to-listing ratio of nearly 50%, the detached-house market is in balanced conditions, with a seller’s market building steam in the strata sector. 

Burnaby East: Total sales in February were 21, up 133% from a month earlier and the sales-to-listing ratio hit a stunning 105%, compared to a low of 20% in January 2023 and 52% in February of last year. This is a seller’s market on steroids with the composite benchmark price up 2.2% month-over-month to $1,102,900, the highest in Burnaby.

Burnaby North: With total sales up 113% from January 2023, to 134, and total active listings down 10%, this is also a seller’s market with a mere three-month supply of listings and a sales ratio of 66%. The saving grace is the high number of new condos coming to the market in the Brentwood-Gilmore area. The composite home price was up from January, led by a 2.4% surge in townhouse prices to $892,100.

Burnaby South: Many Burnaby buyers were southbound in February, driving total sales up 119% from a month earlier, to 118 transactions. Active listings were 377 at month end compared to 352 at the end of January, which translates to a three-month supply at the current sales pace. The composite benchmark price was up nearly 1% from January at $966,500. The sales-to-listing ratio is a healthy 57% with the strata sector in seller’s market conditions.

New Westminster: For buyers looking for scarce townhouses, the Royal City has a good selection. Only 3 townhouses sold in February and there is nine-month supply on the market. Benchmark townhouse prices, however, increased 4.4% from January 2023, to $932,200, the same price as in February 2023. Total housing sales in February were 65% higher than a month earlier, at 66, at new listings inched up by 1%. The overall sales-to-listing ratio is 62%, up from 38% in January 2023 with a buyer’s market for townhouse and condos and a balanced market for detached houses, where prices are up 2.4% or about $34,000 – from a month earlier at $1,418,100.

Coquitlam: It seems hard to understand with the amount of new multi-family construction over the past two years, but Coquitlam is seeing a shortage of strata homes. Coquitlam had one of the biggest turnarounds in February with sales up 116% compared to January. Townhouse sales went from 4 in January to 40 in February. With that, there is just a two-months of inventory for townhouses and condos. The composite benchmark price is up 0.7% from a month earlier, but townhouse prices rose 2.5% from January to $999,900. With an overall sales-to-listing ratio of 67%, this is a seller’s market for strata units and balanced in the detached sector.

Port Moody: Even with total listings of 200 at the end of February, and a significant increase in townhouse and condo listings, strata units are in a seller’s market, along with detached houses. There were more sales than new listings compared to January, with a 104% sales increase from the month previous, to 47 transactions while only 91 new listings in February compared to 103 in January. More than half (52%) of the new listings sold in February, while the composite benchmark price increased 1% to $1,093,100, the highest in the Tri-Cities. 

Port Coquitlam: There is only a one-month supply of townhouses with twice as many sales as new listings in February. Total housing sales reached 40, up a modest 18% from January 2023. The total supply of residential listings is down to four months, meaning a balanced market conditions for detached houses, with townhouses and condos in seller’s market conditions. The overall sales-to-listing ratio is a healthy 46% and the composite benchmark price has held steady (up 0.7%) for three months at $900,900.

Pitt Meadows: Sales didn’t budge month-over-month, with 15 transactions in February, while new listings fell 29% compared to January 2023. The total inventory remains at a four-month supply in this balanced market, with a sales-to-listing ratio of 55%. The composite benchmark home price fell 0.6% from January to $825,900.

Maple Ridge: Total housing sales in February were up 98% from January 2023 to 129 transactions, but new listings were down 4% from a month earlier. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 62%, the same as in February of last year and up from 30% in January 2023, this is a sellers’ market with just four months of inventory. Still, Maple Ridge plans to increase development cost charges this year to $41,000 for a new detached house, up from $22,465, and raise per-square-foot fees for new condo and townhouse units by 80%. The composite benchmark home price in February was up about 1% from January, at $918,300, but townhouse prices rose 3.5%, month over month, to $723,600.

Ladner: The townhouses market saw significant increases in sales and listings accounting for as many sales in February as detached and condos combined. Still, the total market was fairly brisk, with 27 transactions, up 69% from a month earlier and higher even than in February of last year. Townhouse prices spiked up 6.7% from January 2023 tied as the highest increase in Metro Vancouver – to $988,600. New listings were up 42% from a month earlier and there were 98 active listings as February ended. With a sales-to-listing ratio of 44%, this is a balanced market slanting towards a seller’s advantage for townhouses and condos.

Tsawwassen: Detached house listings were down 41% compared to January, while condos remain with a three-month supply. Detached houses and townhouses are in a balanced market. Total sales were rather tepid, at 25 transactions compared with 20 in January 2023 and 73 in February 2022. Perhaps buyers are tired of the back-and-forth Massey Tunnel replacement plan that doesn’t seem to ever get off (or under) the ground. This was noticeably absent from the recent provincial budget announcement and its three-year infrastructure plans. Despite a sales ratio of 47%, the composite benchmark price was down 3.7%, month-over-month, to $1,112,800, led by a sharp 7% drop in detached house prices.

Surrey: Benchmark home prices in Surrey were higher than in January, the first month-over-month increase since April of 2022. Detached house prices were up 0.7% to $1,503,200; townhouse prices rose 1% to $ $ 803,100 and condo apartment benchmark prices were up 1.4% to $522,700. The outlier is South Surrey-White Rock’s detached market, where prices slipped down 1.4% from January to $1,776,300, still the highest price in the Fraser Valley. With total Surrey sales up 61% from January 2023, at 132 transactions, and new listings up less than 15%, Surrey is considered a balanced market.

Kevin Skipworth
Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty

January 2023 signaled early that it would end with what the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says is “among the lowest sales month in recent history.”

As of mid-month, total transactions had reached just 334 properties, well below the 795 in mid-December 2022 or the 778 in mid-January 2022. The slow sales reflected not only higher mortgage rates but a barrage of anti-demand government policies that started the New Year.

Having dealt with a City of Vancouver Empty Homes Tax, the provincial Speculation and Vacancy Tax and a provincial foreign buyer’s tax, effective January 1, we now have a provincial three-day Home Buyer Rescission Period (or ‘cooling-off’ period), a two-year ban on foreign buyers across Canada, a national Underused Homes Tax – essentially a Canada wide empty-homes tax for foreign owned properties – and a national anti-flipping tax which would see any profits for sales within a year of purchase taxed as business income. And of course, Canada’s prime lending rate has doubled from a year earlier, due to eight straight Bank of Canada increases.

It is wonder all this didn’t kill home buying all together. Yet a close look at Metro Vancouver shows flashes of high-performing regional markets in January and evidence that, despite misplaced and heavy-handed government policies, many people remain eager to purchase.

January ended with 1,030 properties sold of all types across Greater Vancouver, meaning sales more than doubled in the past two weeks of the month compared to the first half. As well, new listings increased from 1,379 in the first two weeks of January to end with 3,384, but this was still the lowest number of new listings for a January going back to before 1991 – more than thirty years ago.

This speaks to the one thing keeping prices from declining more than they have. Sellers are not desperate. There is a lot of equity in owning a home and that keeps buyers from going into the market and from sellers rushing to get out. Since the start of the pandemic three years ago, the composite home price in Greater Vancouver has increased by 26%, or about $286,000. The typical detached house is now worth $411,000 more than in January 2020, at a January 2023 benchmark of $1,801,300. 

If there is one prediction that could be made about this market, it’s that listings will not be coming in abundance. 

Despite all the government rhetoric about creating more housing, policies are failing to address the underlying lack of supply. In 2022, for instance, total non-rental housing starts in Metro Vancouver fell 18% from a year earlier to just 16,116 units. And, despite a year-over-year increase in rental construction, Metro Vancouver rents are now the highest in history and the most expensive in Canada.

In some markets, the low inventory sparked bidding wars in January and turned key suburban municipalities into seller’s markets as tenants aimed to move into ownership and owners tried to improve their housing. 

Here are some markets bucking the downward sales trend:

• A Richmond condo listing attracted 11 offers in January as the local condo market moved from a balanced to a seller’s advantage.

• In North Vancouver, townhomes and condos are in a seller’s market with January townhouse sales at similar levels to January 2022.

• The strata sector was in seller’s market conditions in North Burnaby, New Westminster and even Coquitlam, despite a multi-family building boom in all three cities.

• In 12 of the 22 Greater Vancouver markets, townhouse prices increased from December 2022 to January 2023 and were up an average of 0.8% across the entire region to $1,020,400, while benchmark condo apartment prices rose 1% month-over-month to $720,700.

• These are not the signs of a distressed housing market – there are instead signals that buyers, confident that interest rate hikes have ended for now, are willing to come back into the market. If there were more listings, there would be more sales. It is as simple as that.

• And listings of resale housing are starting to increase. The total number of homes currently listed for sale in the Greater Vancouver is 7,478, a 32.1% increase compared to January 2022 and 1.3% higher compared to December 2022. 

• All predictions are that 2024 will see improved housing sales and ascending prices. This is the year for buyers to position themselves for that recovery in a still vibrant housing environment with upside potential. In fact, we believe 2023 will be a much stronger market than most pundits are predicting.

• Despite headwinds through 2023, there is far too much demand to keep this real estate market from doing anything but grow.

Summary of Greater Vancouver markets in January 2023:

Greater Vancouver: With total housing sales down 56% this January compared to January 2022, the January 2023 composite home price was 6.6% lower year-over-year and a mere 0.3% lower than in December 2022, to $1,111,400. Total active Listings were 7,862 at month-end compared to 5,987 at that time last year and 7,791 at the end of December, while new listings in January 2023 were up an expected 173% compared to December 2022. For all property types, the sales-to-listings ratio for January 2023 was 30%. By property type, the ratio is 28% for detached homes, 28% for townhomes, and 33% for apartments. With 571 transactions in the month, condos accounted for more than half of all sales in January, with townhouse sales at 156 and detached house transactions at 295. With an 8-month supply of inventory, this is overall a buyer’s market that is gaining strength. 

Fraser Valley: With 626 transactions in January 2023, housing sales were off 12.6% compared to December 2022 and down by 52.2% compared to January 2022 to the lowest level in 10 years. The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reports that “pent-up demand that has been building since the last quarter of 2022 will likely give rise to a sales uptick, especially if rate hikes subside, which we expect will be the case.” New listings saw an increase of 128.3% over December 2022 to 1,833 but remain at the lowest level for January since 1984. Active listings rose 5% to 4,118 compared to December 2022 and were up 76.6% compared to January 2022. At $942,200, the composite benchmark home price edged down 1.4% from December and was off 15% compared to January 2022.

Vancouver Westside: Total sales in January were 194, down 56% from the same month a year earlier and 20% below December 2022. New listings were up 196% compared to December but 29% lower than a year ago. There are less detached homes for sale than at this time last year, but this may change. In January, the City of Vancouver introduced Adding Missing Middle Housing and Simplifying Regulations in Low Density Neighbourhoods, which would see the opportunity to develop multi-unit housing in single-detached RS zones throughout the city. The proposed changes allow up to four units on a typical 33-foot city lot, and 6 units on a 55-foot lot, subject to two rounds of public engagement. A final report and public hearing to be brought before Council in the fall of 2023. Meanwhile, investors and developers will be angling to purchase detached houses to take advantage of the upzoning. The benchmark price of the 25 detached houses sold in January on the Westside was $3,020,600, down 11.6% from a year earlier. The supply of total residential listings is up to 9 month’s supply (buyer’s market conditions) and sales-to-listings ratio is 27% compared to 100% in December 2022 and 44% in January 2022. 

Vancouver East Side: Upzoning of detached house lots may eventually have an even greater impact on the East Side, due to the addition of two SkyTrain extensions and lower prices. The typical detached house sold in January for $1,664,900, or about half that of the Westside, and down 9.3% from a year earlier. Total sales of all properties were 118 in January, down 54% from a year ago. Condos sales, with 56, led local transactions and the benchmark condo price held steady from December 2022, at $676,800. Total active listings were 867 at month end compared to 739 at that time last year and 880 at the end of December 2022. The supply of total residential listings is steady at a 7 month’s supply (balanced to buyer’s market conditions) and the sales-to-listings ratio of 33% compared with 85% in December 2022 and 54% in January 2022.

North Vancouver: A deep sleep in sales was seen in January with only 82 transactions, down 45% from a year earlier. Only 18 detached sales were seen, with the benchmark price of $2,033,000 down just 2.3% from a month earlier and 9.5% below January 2022. Meanwhile, 48 condos sold at a benchmark of $749,000, down less than 1% from December 2022. Both townhomes and condos are in seller’s market conditions with townhouse sales at similar levels to January 2022. Total active listings were at 416 at month end compared to 291 at that time last year and 385 at the end of December 2022. Total residential listings are up to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and the sales-to-listings ratio of 35% compared to 132% in December 2022 and 55% in January 2022. 

West Vancouver: Benchmarked at $3,074,400 in January, West Vancouver detached house prices are holding remarkably steady, down just 0.6% from a month earlier and less than 6% below January 2022, based on 16 sales. Total properties sold in January were 28, down 30% from December 2022 and down 38% from January 2022. The total residential listings are up to 15-month’s supply and the sales-to-listings ratio of 22% compared to 85% in December 2022 and 32% in January 2022. This is a full-on buyer’s market for those who can afford it.

Richmond: For the first time in two years, the average (not benchmark) home price in Richmond dipped below the $1 million mark in January, falling to $977,143, which was down from more than $1.2 million a year earlier. While total sales in January, at 120, were off 65% from a year earlier, there was action in the strata market. In one case a condo apartment attracted nearly a dozen offers. There were 81 condo sales in the month at a benchmark price of $720,700, a price up 4.6% from a month earlier and 3% higher than in January 2022. Richmond benchmark townhouse prices, at $1,065,600, are 2% higher than a year ago and edged up 1.5% from December 2022. Total active listings were 942 at month end compared to 752 at that time last year and 919 at the end of December. Richmond is a buyer’s market with an 8-month supply and a sales-to-listing ratio at a weak 29%. 

Burnaby East: Only 9 homes sold in January, perhaps the lowest ever recorded and below even the sluggish January 2019 which posted 11 transactions. Listings are increasing, posting a 214% spike up from December, which may keep prices in check. In January, the composite home price was $1,079,300, down 5.3% from a year earlier. There is 10-months of housing inventory in this buyer’s market, where the sales success ratio is a low 20%.

Burnaby North: Total sales were down 56% from a year earlier with 63 transactions in January at a composite benchmark of $954,200, a price down 4.7% year-over-year and off 1.1% from December 2022.(Benchmark prices slipped below $1 million last August and have been slowly descending since). Despite a lot of new condos being built over the past three years, condo prices are holding firm, benchmarked at $696,600 in January, a price 0.2% higher than in January 2022. This is considered an overall balanced market, with about a six-month supply of total listings and a sales-to-listings ratio of 31%

Burnaby South: Just 54 sales were seen in January, down from 94 a month earlier and 64% below the pace in January 2022. The composite benchmark price of $1,052,800, however, was up marginally from December 2022 and down less than 1% from a year ago. Active listings were at 352 at month end compared to 283 at that time last year and 344 at the end of December. This is a buyer’s market, despite the sticky prices, with an inventory of a 7-months’ supply and a sales-to-listing ratio of 33%, far below the 152% seen in December 2022.

New Westminster: New West flirted with a seller’s market in December 2022 but was more balanced in January as sales dipped to 40 transactions, down 25% from a month earlier and 61% below January 2022. There has been increased action in the detached housing market, particularly in the Sapperton and the Massey-Victoria Heights areas, where quick sales were seen, some above asking, at the end of January. While the benchmark detached house price is $1,384,000, New Westminster has one of the lowest composite home prices in a SkyTrain-served community, at $782,300. Both benchmark townhouse prices ($892,300 ) and condo apartments ($622,500) are higher now than a month and a year ago, which is rare in Metro Vancouver. This is considered a balanced market, with a 6-month supply of listings and a sales-to-listings ratio of 38%.

Coquitlam: Coquitlam posted 73 residential property sales in January, down 10% from December 2022 and 58% less than in January 2022, and this is considered a buyer’s market with 484 active listings – about a 7-month supply – and sales-to-listing ratio of a low 28%, compared to 107% in December 2022. Condo demand and prices are firm: 48 apartments sold in January at a benchmark price of $656,300, a price nearly unchanged (down 0.9%) from a year earlier. Just 4 townhouses sold in January, but the benchmark price of $975,000 was down just 0.3% from December 2022. 

Port Moody: Total sales in January were 23 – down from 41 (44%) in December 2022 and down from 57 (60%) in January 2022. Active listings were 188 at month end, compared to 93 at that time last year and 155 at the end of December 2022. New listings in January were up 145% compared to December 2022 and up 29% compared to January 2022. This is a buyer’s market, with the composite home price virtually unchanged from a year ago, at $1,083,700. 

Port Coquitlam: Buyers withdrew from Port Coquitlam in January, and we suspect relatively high prices may be to blame in the only Tricities market with no SkyTrain. The benchmark detached house has shot up 38% since January 2020 and, even with an 11% decline in the last year, is still at $1,279,200. Just 13 detached houses sold in January, down from 29 in the same month last year. However, this is technically a seller’s market because there is only a 4-month supply of listings and the overall sales-to-listing ratio is running at 44%, with detached houses at 66%.

Pitt Meadows: Total sales in January slumped 50% from a year earlier to just 15 transactions as the composite home price in the small community fell 15% in the same period to $830,600. 
Still, this is also seen as seller’s market because a lack of listings translates to just a 4-month supply. The current sales-to-listings ratio of 39% compares to 191% in December 2022 and 73% in January 2022, so sellers have a fragile advantage at best. 

Maple Ridge: Maple Ridge, where the composite home price of $910,000 is still 38% higher than in pre-pandemic January 2020, also saw total sales slide in January, dropped 47% from a year earlier and 17% from a month ago, to 65 transactions. The benchmark price of a detached house, the dominant sales sector, is $1,166,000, down 16.2% from a year ago and declining by an average of about 1.5% per month since last fall. New Listings in January were up 232% compared to December 2022 and the total inventory of listings is up to 7 month’s supply (balanced to buyer’s market conditions), with a sales-to-listings ratio of 30% compared to 120% in December 2022 and 51% in January 2022. 

Ladner: With 16 sales in January, up from 9 in December, Ladner saw its total supply of homes for sale drop from an 8 to a 5-month inventory in January, despite new listings jumping 209% month-over-month. Detached house prices are down 16% from January 2022, to $1,267,700, but are declining 2.5% per month. This is a balanced market tilting towards a buyer’s advantage with lower prices and a rather tepid sales-to-listing ratio of 37%, about half that of December 2022.

Tsawwassen: Tsawwassen posted zero townhouse sales in January, but only having 3 new listings will lead to that. Based on December sales, therefore, the benchmark townhouse price remains 4.4% lower from a year ago, at $937,100. Detached house prices are down 11% year-over-year to $1,434,600 but remain 30% higher than in pre-pandemic January 2020. 

Total housing sales were 20 in January, down 52% from a year earlier, but new listings were up 185% from December 2022. This is a balanced market with a healthy supply of listings and a sales ratio of 35%, down sharply from 115% a month earlier. 

Surrey: Surrey housing sales slumped across the board in January, with detached house transactions down 67.8% year-over-year, townhouse sales down nearly 50% and condo apartment sales falling 60% compared to January 2022. Benchmark prices followed suit, with detached house prices dropping 22% to $1,552,110; townhouse prices down 16% from a year ago to $807,200 and condo prices dipping 7.5% year-over-year to $526,938. With active listings rising and sales and prices falling, Surrey is a serious buyer’s market right now. Opportunity exists in that market.

Highlights of our August 2022 report 

• Total new listings in August the lowest in more than 28 years 

• Ladner townhouses and condos fall to 1-month supply 

• At least six major condo projects have stopped or stalled this year

• Existing condos, townhouses can’t be replaced at their current value 

• Surrey strata housing starts fall 69% this year compared to 2021

• Port Coquitlam is down to 2 months supply overall and 1 month supply for townhouses

The major takeaway from the Metro Vancouver housing market is that both the number of new listings and the numbers of new homes being built are flirting with record lows. New listings of homes for sale fell to 3,383 in August, the lowest level in more than 28 years, while starts of new strata units plunged 43% year-over-year as of August 1, to just 6,596 new units – and this includes all Greater Vancouver plus Surrey and Langley.

Understanding the pull back in resale listings is not difficult.  This August offered the distraction of splendid weather and the lifting of COVID travel and other restrictions for the first summer in two years. Plus, a slowdown in home sales, rising interest rates and flatlining prices convinced many potential sellers to hesitate in listing their property.  We fully expect that the return to school and work this fall will see the traditional rise in home listings and sales. 

Reasons for the dramatic drop in non-rental homes being built are more complicated and it is harder to estimate when starts will begin to increase. Without a dramatic adjustment, we could be looking at a shortage of new homes in Metro Vancouver to continue for months, perhaps years, despite all the calls to increase the housing supply. At the end of 2021, 17 new strata projects in Metro Vancouver were being advertised as “coming soon” and had plans to begin marketing in early spring. Of these, six have been delayed and the other 11 could not provide an opening date for a launch, or the developers said marketing of pre-sales would not proceed until this fall. 

Of the 8 new strata projects that did decided to rest pre-sales in August - with, of course, no construction underway - average sales totaled about 20% of the units offered - the same as in June and July and down from the 30% to 40% sales success in the summer of 2021. The simple reason is that the developers, facing historically high land prices, higher government fees and charges, and soaring construction costs, cannot deliver a new condo or townhouse that is priced anywhere close to that of the resale market. 

One of the last big condo tower blowout sales in downtown Vancouver – which sold out in 2020 – had an average price per square foot of more than $2,000.  New projects going up the Cambie/Oakridge area are asking $3,000 per square foot, as are new towers planned for Coal Harbour. The average new condo or townhouse price is more than $1,600 per square foot, while resale prices on Vancouver’s West Side average $1,200 per square foot and are $837 per square foot or less in East Vancouver and most suburban markets. 

Dexter Realty alone has an existing downtown Vancouver condo on Howe Street listed at $1,200 per square foot; a Kitsilano 724-square-foot wood-frame condo on West 3rd Avenue listed at $699,000 ($965 per square foot); and an exceptional 836-square-foot 2-bedroom concrete condo in New Westminster priced at $529,000, the equivalent of $632 per square.

Based on current developer costs, none of these existing condos could be reproduced today at the current listing price. For example, in the city of Vancouver, city development fees and charges alone average $186,000 on a new condo, and this does not include the federal GST which nails another 5% to the cost to the consumer, or the 30% increase in building material costs over the past year.

How crazy are residential development land prices getting? This August, a 1.3-acre land assembly of three detached house lots in Langley near a proposed new SkyTrain extension sold for $18 million – the equivalent of nearly $14 million an acre. The assembly has potential for 159 new townhouses, but each would have more than $118,000 baked in just for land costs. Similar scenarios are seen across the Metro region.

Now, there is concern that rental projects will also be put on hold because the cost of development outstrips the level of market rent that can be achieved. One rental developer explained that her input costs totaled $200 per buildable square foot meaning “the pro-forma for a rental doesn’t work at all.”

Of course the elephant in the room continues to be supply. Even with the discussion turning to the need to produce more, immigration levels are only beginning to ramp up and the need for homes is only going to intensify. This month we’ll see what the allowable rental increase for 2023 will be, and for a rental market that is seeing extreme pressure due to a lack of rental supply, that’s only going to lead to higher rents and competition in that part of the market.

The best advice for first-time buyers or investors is to purchase right now while there is a clear buyer’s advantage and to purchase a resale condo in transit-rich areas like East Vancouver, New Westminster and Surrey, where we are seeing a ballooning shortage of both new rental and strata properties.

Meanwhile for family buyers, it is time to refocus on the detached market, which has seen the sharpest sales slowdown this year of any property type.

August sales of detached houses in Greater Vancouver fell 45.3% from August 2021 and benchmark house prices have been dropping an average of 2.2 % month-over-month since February. In August, only 12.2% of detached active house listings sold (8 months supply), compared to 25% for strata units (4 months supply).

In the Fraser Valley, the benchmark price for a single-family detached house decreased 5.1% (about $71,000) compared to a month earlier. 

Detached houses are in a buyer’s market right now and serious buyers should take full advantage. Markets to watch for detached house values are the West Side of Vancouver, where the median house price fell by $400,000 from July to August, even as sales increased; and North Vancouver and Richmond, where median prices for detached houses were down $185,000 and $100,000, respectively, in August from July.

Detached house values are largely based on the value of land, which is becoming a scarce and expensive commodity across Metro Vancouver. So, think long term as always in real estate.

Regional highlights for August 2022

Greater Vancouver: There were a total of 1,891 home sales in August, down just 1% from July 2022 but 23% lower than in August 2021 and even 14% lower than in August 2019. Active Listings were at 10,099 at month end compared to 9,494 at that time last year and 10,734 (down 6%) at the end of July. New Listings in August are down 17% compared to July 2022 and 13% lower than in August 2021. The total supply of residential listings is down to 5 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and the sales to listings ratio of 56% compared to 47% in July 2022 and 77% in August 2021. The benchmark composite home price was $1,180,500. This was down 2.2% compared to July 2022 but a 7.4 per cent increase over August 2021.

The market is very much acting like a buyer’s market in many areas and product types. Subject to sale is coming into play more and more, and buyers can have time with subjects. Multiple offers will happen but not to the same extent we saw earlier this year. And certainly not with the same fever that has been occurring in the last two years. And while the condo market in the last few months has been stronger, in August in many areas sales of detached and townhouses outpaced the number of sales in July. Perhaps settling into the interest rate climate we are in and buyers taking advantage of price declines that have happened in that market segment.

Fraser Valley: In August, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,017 sales, an increase of 2.4 per cent compared to July 2022 but a 51.3% decrease compared to August 2021. New listings reached 2,045, down 14.3% from July and 2.9% below August 2021. While all benchmark prices were up from a year earlier, detached house prices were down 5.1% from July 2022, to $1,513,500; townhouse prices were down 3.9% month-over-month and condo apartment prices fell 2.1% from July 2022.

Vancouver Westside: Detached houses on Vancouver’s Westside have long been the poster child of B.C.’s high housing prices and soaring sales. That changed somewhat as of August. With 57 sales in the month, detached house transactions were slightly higher than a month earlier but nearly 50% below August 2021, when 107 houses sold. But the median price of a Westside detached house in August, at $3,050,000 was down $300,000 from July 2022 and more than $280,000 less than in August of last year. Total sales of all property types in August reached 380 transactions, up 3% from July 2020 but down 15% from a year earlier. Townhouse prices, at a median of $1,300,000 were down more than $200,000 from both a month and a year earlier. Condos, which led sales with 282 transactions in August, saw the median price reach $829,000, down slightly from July 2022, but up from the median of $775,000 in August 2021. Total active listings were at 2,279 at month end compared to 2,389 at that time last year and 2,453 (down 7%) at the end of July 2020. New listings in August are down 12% compared to July 2022 and down 19% compared to August 2021. The current sales-to-listings ratio of 52% compares to 44% in July 2022 and 65% in August 2021. This remains in a balanced market, but the detached housing sector is into a buyer’s advantage.

Vancouver East Side: We believe the East Side represents one of the best housing markets in the Metro region and August proved the point. There were the same number of detached sales on the East as the West side of Vancouver, at 57, but the median house price on the East Side, at $1,768,000 was $1.28 million less than on the Westside – and East Side detached prices, unlike the Westside and most of Greater Vancouver, were higher than in July 2022 and in August 2021. A further surprise is that East Side townhouse prices, at a median of $1,384,500 in August, and sales, at 52, were the highest of any market in Metro Vancouver, including the Westside. Total housing sales were 196 in August, down just 1% from a month earlier. Active listings were at 1,103 at month end compared to 1,090 at that time last year and down 7% at the end of July 2022. New listings in August were down 24% compared to July 2022, and 22% lower compared to August 2021. The overall sales-to-listings ratio is 59% compared to 45% in July 202 and 69% in August 2021. While detached homes show buyer’s market sales, the other sectors remain a seller’s market and that is not likely to change anytime soon.

North Vancouver: There is new residential construction underway in North Vancouver this year, but it is dominated by rentals. As of August 1, for instance, 742 rental units had started, compared to just 202 strata units, including just 39 townhouses. Meanwhile, new listings of homes for sale in August were down 25% compared to a month earlier and total listings were only 524 at month end, down 8% from July. With 126 total sales in August, down 27% from a month earlier, prices for all types of property were also lower, despite a healthy sales-to-listing ratio of 56%. The median detached house price in August was $1,835,000, down from $2,020,000 in July; while townhouse prices were slightly lower at a median of $1,300,000; and condo apartment prices were down about $25,000 from July, at $700,219.

West Vancouver: Due to policy changes late last year which caused a rush of permit applications to beat a January 31 deadline, West Vancouver is facing a huge backlog of applications so don’t expect many new homes to start this year. The entire housing market is down, with 53 sales in August, 13% lower than in July and down 21% from a year earlier. The overall benchmark composite home price, at $2,774,00 has barely budged in six months and was down 1.3% from this July. Active listings were at 565 at month end compared to 536 at that time last year and 580 (down 3%) at the end of July. The August sales-to-listings ratio of 35% compares to 32% in July 2022 and 52% in August 2021. This buyer’s market remains relatively slow but stable. 

Richmond: Richmond August housing sales, at 226, were higher than in July, increasing just 1% month over month, but down 33% from August 2021. Benchmark detached house prices have been slipping lower each month for six months and dipped a further 1% from July to $2,111,300. A shortage of strata units is looming, however, which may put a floor under strata prices. Richmond has seen several condo projects put on hold and the result is that just 282 new condo units have started this year, compared to 916 at the same time in 2021. Townhouse starts fell about 12% from last year to 96 units. Total new listings in August were down 13% compared to July 2022 and down 30% compared to August 2021, and even 27% lower than in August 2019. The supply of total residential listings is steady at 6 month’s supply and the sales- to-listings ratio of 60% compares to 52% in July 2022 and 82% in August 2021. This is technically a buyer’s market but appears to be leaning this summer to a buyer’s advantage, especially in the detached-house sector.

Burnaby East: Burnaby East posted the lowest sales of any Burnaby area, with just 20 transactions in August, the lowest level for that month in at least three years and down 9% from July 2020. The benchmark composite home price has now dropped nearly 8% over the past six months to settle at $1,109,000 in August. Active Listings were at 75 at month end compared to 83 at that time last year and 68 at the end of July. New listings in August are down 18% compared to July 2022 and 47% lower compared to August 2021. This remains a seller’s market, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 74%. 

Burnaby North: By this time next year, giant Grosvenor will have construction underway for 3,500 homes, including about 900 strata units in the Brentwood Block in the Brentwood Town Centre. Meanwhile the benchmark price for a Burnaby North condo apartment in August was down 2.4% from a month earlier to $717,300, but still 11.5% higher than a year ago. Total housing sales in August were 120, down 3% from July 2022, and 34% lower when compared to August 2021. Active listings were 448 at month end, 6% less than at the end of July. New listings were down 22% compared to July 2022, and the lowest level for August since 2019. The sales-to-listings ratio of 63% is down from 76% a year ago but this market retains a seller’s advantage.

Burnaby South: Benchmark prices for detached houses and townhouses have been tracking down steadily, with detached houses shedding 9.2% in value since June to $2,105,200 in August, while townhouses have dropped 9.5% in the past three months to $964,300. Still, with active listings down 12% from July, total sales down 2% in the same period and the sales-to-listing ratio running at 73% in August, Burnaby South remains a hot seller’s market. The condo market is especially strong with benchmark prices down just 1.2% from the February peak at $776,300, the highest condo price in Burnaby.

New Westminster: If it were not for 452 subsidized rentals, few new housing starts would have registered in New Westminster this year. As it was, starts of strata units fell to just 185 homes through the first seven months of 2022, compared to 1,255 strata starts – including 65 townhouses – at the same time in 2021. This may be bad news for future buyers because active listings in August were down to just 280 homes and new listings were down 20% from a month earlier to the lowest level since at least August 2019. With 77 sales in August, the sales-to-listing ratio was 65%, compared to 88% a year earlier. Benchmark prices for all property types have been declining, however, led by a 11.1% reduction in detached house prices from six months earlier to $1,450,100 in August. Townhouse and condo apartment prices have been slipping down for three months to settle at $922,800 and $651,000, respectively.

Coquitlam: More strata housing starts are being seen this year – a total of 1,342 units as of August 1 – in the Tri-Cities than any other market in the Lower Mainland and the bulk of the activity is in Coquitlam. This bodes well for a municipality where August sales – at 157 – were up 11% from July and where the sales-to-listing ratio is at 59%. This is down from 93% a year ago, but still one of the strongest in Metro Vancouver. Both active and new listings were down slightly from a month earlier, with a total of 616 homes available at the end of August. The benchmark composite price was down 2.6% from July and off nearly 6% from six months earlier, at $1,104,000 in August. Detached houses sold at a benchmark of $1,794,700n in August, while townhomes fetched $1,058,000 and condo prices were down 1.7% from July at a benchmark of $669,200.

Port Moody: Total homes sold in August were 33 – down from 45 (- 27%) in July 2022 and down from 57 (-42%) in August 2021. Active listings were at 202 at month end compared to 155 at that time last year and 203 (down just 0.5%) at the end of July. New Listings in August are down 7% compared to July 2022. Month’s supply of total residential listings is up to 6 month’s supply (balanced market conditions) and sales to listings ratio of 43% compared to 54% in July 2022 and 73% in August 2021. The benchmark composite home price in August was $1,175,200, reflective of the higher detached-house values in the Belcarra neighbourhood. 

Port Coquitlam: Total housing sales in August were 78, up 10% from July 2022 but, down 20% compared to August 2021. But total active listings dropped 16% from a month earlier to 178, resulting in a sales-to-listing ratio of 76%, one of the highest in Greater Vancouver. There is just a 2-month supply of homes on the market. Benchmark prices, however, remain relatively low at a composite price of $917,200 in August, with detached houses selling for $1,328,100 a price down 13% from six months earlier and nearly 5% lower than in July 2022.

Pitt Meadows: Just 17 homes sold during August, down 13% from July and 56% lower than in pre-pandemic August 2019. The surge in sales and prices seen through the pandemic has clearly eased. The August benchmark detached house price was down 17.6% from six months earlier, at $1,253,800 and townhouse prices were down 5.6% in the same period to $905,500. Active listings nearly doubled from July to 96 at the end of August and new listings were 16% higher than a year earlier. With a sales-to-listing ratio at 39% - compared to 85% during the height of the pandemic in August 2020 – this market is tracking towards a buyer’s advantage. 

Maple Ridge: With 113 total sales in August, up 5% from a month earlier, Maple Ridge posted a respectable 48% sales-to-listing ratio, indicating a balanced market but with sellers having a slight advantage. There were 602 active listings at the end of August, down from 655 at the end of July. The detached house benchmark price was down nearly 13% from six months earlier, at $1,279,200. Townhouses sold in August at benchmark of $750,700, down 5.3% from a month earlier and 14.6% below the price six months ago. 

Ladner: Anyone who has driven past the exit to Ladner this year has seen the profusion of strata units, primarily townhouses, that sprang up over the past two years. And they continue to sell well, posting a 128% sales-to-listing ratio as 9 townhouses sold at a benchmark price of $884,800 in August, a price down, however, from $965,444 a month earlier. There is only a 1-month supply of townhouses on the Ladner market. Total sales in August of all properties were 27, up 108% from July. Total active listings were 99 at the end of August, down 12% from July and disappearing at sales ratio of 88%, compared to 32% a month earlier. Ladner remains a seller’s market, but there is just a total of 4-month’s supply of homes available.

Tsawwassen: Just 9 detached houses sold in Tsawwassen in August, the lowest level of any month since January of 2020. Yet, the average detached house price in August was $1,704,988, up 4% from a month earlier and well above the average of $1,540,600 in August of last year. Total August sales of all property reached only 25 transactions, down 11% from July and 66% below August of 2021. So far, prices are sticky, but this may change if sales continue to decline. The sales-to-listing ratio fell to 40% in August, down from 112% a year earlier and the lowest ratio in at least three years. 

Surrey: The bloom came off the rosy Surrey housing market in August as detached house sales fell to 152 transactions, down 60.8% from a year earlier. Townhouse sales were down nearly 45% year over year and condo apartment sales, at 169, were 41.7% lower than in August 2021. Still, total sales were slightly higher than in July 2022 and benchmark prices held their own. The average detached house price in August was $1,636,086, down just 1.6% from July, with townhouse selling for $837,902, down 4.4% from a month earlier. The 169 condo sales in August traded at an average of $539,597, virtually unchanged from July 2021 but up nearly 12% from August of 2021. Surrey, however, has seen a fast decline in strata starts this year, with a total of 698 condo and townhouse started so far, compared to 2,321 in the first seven months of 2021. 

“Every choice you make has an end result.” Zig Ziglar

February signals March will come in like a lion

Highlights of this Greater Vancouver report

• Biggest year-to-year detached price increase: Pitt Meadows, up 40.4%

• Why a ‘cooling-off period’ would mean market chaos

• Month-over-month home price increase forecast during 2022: $9,000

• Month-over-month home price increase from January to February: $60,000

• Most inexpensive composite home price: New Westminster: $816,900

February, with the highest increase in listings in eight months and the fourth-highest home sales for the month in history, set the stage for what should be barnburner in

March, traditionally one of the strongest months in the Metro Vancouver housing market.

March of last year produced the highest number of new listings and the highest number of sales by month in 2021, which ended up posting the all-time annual high of almost 45,000 sales.

February, with the highest increase in listings in eight months and the fourth-highest home sales for the month in history, set the stage for what should be barnburner in March, traditionally one of the strongest months in the Metro Vancouver housing market. March of last year produced the highest number of new listings and the highest number of sales by month in 2021, which ended up posting the all-time annual high of almost 45,000 sales.

With a series of rate increases already started – the Bank of Canada lending rate increased 25 basis points to 0.50% on March 2 and a second increase is expected in April – and a continued lack of inventory, we don’t expect 2022 sales to top last year’s record. But we do believe that sales could go higher over the next two months as buyers try to get into a market with historically low mortgage rates.

In reality, even the most pessimistic forecasts for a Bank of Canada rate increases this year –175 basis points – will not have much effect on what a buyer can afford.

The average mortgage amount in Canada, according to Equifax, is approximately $371,500. For a homeowner carrying a variable-rate mortgage of 1.5% with a 25-year amortization, the monthly mortgage payment would be $1,485. A rise of 175 basis points would increase the rate to 3.25%, making monthly payments $1,807, a difference of $322 per month.

Even doubling the average local mortgage means about a $650 per month increase. But the composite home price in Greater Vancouver is projected to increase by 0.75%, or an average of $9,000, per month during 2022.

Officially, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver expects total 2022 sales to decline 12.2% compared to 2021, but prices are expected to rise on average 8.9% compared to last year, with detached prices leading the way at 13% (to $2.23 million) townhouses following at 9.5% (to $1.16 million) and condo apartments posting an 8% price increase to $781,000.

Sales: There were 3,451 properties sold of all types in Greater Vancouver in February this year compared with 2,329 sold a month earlier and 3,852 sales in February 2021. Sales in February were 30% above the 10-year average for the month and nearly 50% higher than in January 2022.

Listings: February brought 5,573 new listings to the market which was above the 5,191 that came on the market in February 2021. The number of new listings in February were 15% above the 10-year average. This still left only 7,062 active listings in Greater Vancouver at the end of February – an all-time low for the month. The one glimmer of hope is that week-by-week in February, the number of new listings increased. There was an average of 251 new listings a day in the first week to an average of 350 new listings a day in the last week of February.

But even with the increase in new listings we are still sitting with 2-month’s supply of homes available for sale in most areas. North Vancouver, New Westminster, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Tsawwassen, Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge are among markets with just a 1-month’s supply of homes for sale.

So, barring a huge increase in listings, the start of the spring buying season should continue to see the higher prices and multiple offers that characterize a lack of supply amidst high demand.

Cooling off period means chaos

We can only hope that a provincial government proposal for a ‘cooling off’ period does not arrive to skew and confuse the spring housing market.

The main result of the cooling off period would be less listings on the market, which is the exact opposite of what is needed.

The government proposal is for a period (length yet to be determined) after an accepted offer in which the buyer could get out of the transaction.

This is among the most unthinkable ideas this government has come up with, which is saying a lot. The effect would be chaos, with a cascading effect. A seller would not know for a week or so whether the sale was actually going through. If it didn’t, the next buyer would also have a mandatory grace period, and so on.

Meanwhile, the seller would be trying to buy another home, but that transaction would also be delayed by the cooling off period. And given all offers would have this same mechanism, the only strategy left for buyers is to compete on price, and price alone. How is that going to tame our housing market? We would recommend, that, at least the government allow sellers and buyers to agree to drop the cooling off period. Which we think nearly every buyer and seller would agree to.

Breakdown of the February numbers, by market:

Greater Vancouver: Total housing sales in February, at 3,451, were up nearly 50% in February compared to January, but the performance was mixed.

As we predicted here, condo apartment sales continued to dominate housing sales across Greater Vancouver in February. Buyers are moving towards apartments more than we have seen in the last two years. There was an increase of 5% in the number of apartments sold compared to February 2021, while there was a decrease of 24% in the number of townhomes sales and detached house transactions were down 17% compared to February 2021.

The key reasons for the condo sales surge are a greater supply and lower prices – at a benchmark of $807,900 in February – than other property types, plus demand from investors. With vacancy rates back to their record lows, investors know there is a need for rental housing – something the governments in all cities haven’t been able to adequately supply.

But the condo apartment supply was down 29% year-over-year in February and some larger new condo projects have stalled, stopped or are completely pre-sold. A shortage is looming and benchmark prices have risen15.9% from a year ago.

After 10 years of consultation and seven presentations from the developer, in February Port Moody sent the city’s largest housing development to a further round of public hearings. The biggest housing project on the Burnaby-Coquitlam border, Lougheed Town Centre, closed its presentation centre March 1after selling out 95% of 1,500 condos in the first phase. (The last 3 bedroom units start at $1.4 million). In Richmond, a planned 800-unit condo project has stopped and the site was fenced in and closed in February.

An indication of the future of new condo values is the prices being achieved for suburban multi-family land: in Burnaby’s Metrotown a 1.4-acre potential condo site recently sold for the equivalent of more than $31 million per acre; less than an acre of multi-family development land in New Westminster sold in February for $27.5 million. In Surrey, a 0.8-acre residential assembly sold for $12 million. These are unparalleled land prices that must eventually be reflected in the end product.

Investors remain active in condo sales, which is fortunately increasing the rental supply in a market where the rental vacancy rate has fallen to around 1 per cent.

The number of active listings for townhouses continues to be a challenge with only a 1-month’s supply in Greater Vancouver, and active listings down 26% year-over-year. The February benchmark price for a townhouse increased nearly 6% – that is more than $64,000 – from January to $1,090,000. Yet only 90 new townhouses had started in all of Metro Vancouver (which includes Surrey and Langley) this year as of February 1.One issue that adds to the cost of townhouses is civic fees. For instance, a new 39-unit townhouse project in Richmond, which is offering innovative townhomes with small secondary rental suites, is ironically being charged $358,000 for the city’s “affordable housing fund.”

Meanwhile, the number of detached home listed for sale is at 3-month’s supply. Sales dropped year-over-year in February due to a lack of choice and buyer resistance to a record high benchmark price of $2,044,800.

Fraser Valley: There were 1,352 sales through the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board in February, up 38% from a year earlier and 39% higher than in January 2022. New listings, however, dropped 15% year-over-year to 2,557, and total active listings were down to 5,741 homes. The strata shortage is severe in some markets. In Langley for example, for every 10 active townhomes in February, six sold and in Cloverdale there were only 26 total condo listings and 20 of them sold.

The Board reports more traffic at open houses, more multiple offers and a slight increase in year‐over‐year prices. At $971,300, the benchmark price for a detached house was up 1.1 per cent compared to January. The benchmark townhouse price increased 1% from January to $523,200. At $414,500, the benchmark price for condo apartments in the Fraser Valley increased 1.5 per cent compared to January.

Vancouver Westside: We are seeing a few detached house price corrections on the West Side – in one case a 10% reduction on $3.4 million February listing – but don’t believe it is a trend, just something to watch. Detached sales reached 102 houses in February, up 56% from January and 17% higher than in February 2021. The median detached house price in February was $3,655,000, up from $3,332,000 a year earlier. Total residential sales were 665, up 49% from January 2022 Active listings were 1,942 at month’s end compared to 1at the end of January 2022. With 131 townhouse listings and 73 sales, the sales-to-listing ratio for townhouses was 56%, indicating a seller’s market. The benchmark townhouse price is now $1,371,300, up 4.5% from January. With 498 sales and a sales-to-listing ratio of 64%, condo apartments were by far the most active Westside sector in February, even as the benchmark condo price reached $871,500, up 11.1% from a year ago.

Vancouver East Side: The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is forecasting that East Side home prices will rise a further 10.5% this year and February indicated that may be conservative. Composite home prices were up 4.5% from a month earlier. If that pace even slowed by half, the annual price increase in 2022 would surpass the 21% price rise in 2021. Despite a new benchmark high of $1,860,900, the East Side led every sub-market but Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows with 117 detached house sales in February. Total residential sales on the East Side in February were 359, up 30% from January and 12% higher than a year earlier. The 190 condo sales led the action, with the benchmark condo price rising 4.4% from January to $678,900. New listings in February were up 35% compared to January 2022 and up 12% compared to February 2021. There is about a 2-month’s supply of total residential listings, with a sales-to-listings ratio of 55%, a ratio that has held steady for the past year.

North Vancouver: Even with an unprecedented median price of $2,303,500, 75% of the detached houses listed for sale sold in February. The 80 detached sales were up from 37 in January and down 10% from February 2021. Townhouse and condo apartment sales were also higher than a month earlier, with townhouse sales more than doubling to 46 at a benchmark of $1,292,000; and 134 condos selling at a benchmark of $716,700. Total active listings were at 380 compared to 469 at the same time last year and 291 at the end of January. New listings in February were up 55% compared to January 2022. Month’s supply of total residential listings is back down to 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and the sales-to-listings ratio is running at a tight 64%. Congratulations are in order for North Vancouver City: after 10 years of delays, the $201.8 million Harry Jerome Community Recreation Centre and Silver Harbour Centre in central Lonsdale starts construction next month.

West Vancouver: Total February housing sales soared 78% from January to 80 transactions, while active listings increased to 417 units, up from 358 in January. Detached house sales naturally dominated the market, accounting for 58 sales in February at a benchmark price of $3,273,200. West Vancouver, which had 18 condo apartment sales in the month, is the only Metro municipality where the benchmark condo sells for more than $1 million: it was $1,181,200 in February.

West Vancouver has fairly healthy 5-month supply of listings and is one of the few balanced markets in the Lower Mainland, with a sales-to-listing ratio at 37%.

Richmond: There is a bit of a condo boom in Richmond, with 400 condo apartments selling so far this year, including 225 in February. Total condo listings were down in February compared to January, to 311, but the sales-to-listing ratio had risen to 72%. The benchmark condo price has shot up nearly 9% since December 31, 2021, and is now at $800,300. Total Richmond sales in February were 397, up 17% from 2022, but down 12% from February 2021. New listings in February were up 27% compared to January 2022, and the sales-to-listings ratio is 56%, a mild seller’s market.

Ladner: The number of detached listings in February rose to 45, an increase of 14 from January. There was only a slight increase in townhome listings (4, compared to 2) and apartments (8, compared to 2) from the previous month. Prices continue to ascend with the benchmark price of a single family detached home in Ladner increasing 5.8% from January to $1,543,800. Ladner townhouses increased by 6.1% to a benchmark price of $915,500 while apartments went up 2.7% to $620,200.Total units sold in February were 26, up 18% from January 2022, but down 67% from February 2021. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 2-month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and the sales to listings ratio is 46% compared to 61% in January 2022 and 74% in February 2021.

Tsawwassen: The benchmark price for a single-family detached house in Tsawwassen rose by 4.9% from January to 1,637,500. Townhouse benchmark prices climbed 6% to $992,800 and apartments rose 2% month to month to $672,400. New listings in February were up 29% compared to January 2022, but down 2% compared to February 2021. Month’s supply of total residential listings is down to a 1-month’s supply in this seller’s market. The sales to listings ratio is72% compared to 54% in January 2022.

Burnaby East: Burnaby East has the highest condo apartment prices in Burnaby, at $801,000, and condo prices were up 5.1% in February compared to January and are 19.9% higher than a year earlier. The action reflects the condo construction action that has defined the Edmonds area over the past few years. The benchmark townhouse price in Burnaby East is $794,900, the lowest among Burnaby’s three distinct markets. The typical detached house sells for $1,729,300, also the lowest for a house in Burnaby. Total new listings in February were up 86% compared to January 2022. February’s sales-to-listings ratio of 52% compares to 71% in January 2022, and 64% in February 2021.

Burnaby North: Total residential sales in February were 226, up 59% from January and 17% higher than in February of last year. Despite a rally of new listings, total active listings in Burnaby North reached only 283 in February and the sales-to-listing ratio of 72% compared to 60% in January 2022. Burnaby North’s market is dominated by condominium listings and sales. The benchmark condo price is $799,900.

Burnaby South: This is overall the most affordable housing enclave in Burnaby, but the gap is narrowing. In February, the composite home price was $1,157,200, up 5% from a month earlier and the lowest in Burnaby. The benchmark detached house price, however, jumped to $1,983,000, the highest in the municipality. Townhouse and condo prices are both lower than the Burnaby average, at $836,200 and $749,200, respectively. Total active listings were at 312 in February, compared to 528 at that time last year and 283 at the end of January. The current sales-to-listing ratio in this seller’s market is 70%.

New Westminster: The Royal City is seeing amazing tower condo construction and sales. On March 11, the second 24-hour concrete pour in a year takes place as 429 concrete trucks will pour in rotation for a 46-storey condo tower, which is flanked by a 53-storey condo high rise, one of the largest in Metro Vancouver, which is under construction and totally sold out. In February, 103 resale condos sold in New Westminster, up from 73 in January and the median price rose about $30,000 in the month to $640,000. Condos are the dominate sector, accounting for nearly 80% of all sales in the city. The sales-to-listing ratio for condos is 72%. The emphasis on condos means that New Westminster has the lowest composite home price in Greater Vancouver at $816,900.

Coquitlam: Coquitlam, the largest of the Tri-City markets, saw an increase in listings, sales and housing prices in February compared to a month earlier. Total sales were up 52% from January, at 264 transactions, while new listings increased 69% in the same period and the benchmark composite price increased 5.2% to $1,265,700. As in most markets, condo apartments led the parade, accounting for 143 of the sales and posting a 5.4% month-to-month price increase to a benchmark of $674,400. The supply of total residential listings is steady at a 2-month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and the sales to listings ratio is 59% compared to 66% in January 2022.

Port Moody: There are 59 nervous single-detached owners in Port Moody, and their concern is a lesson to owners who get involved in a land assembly. In this case, the Coronation Park-area owners sold to a major developer, but payment for the houses is tied to the developer getting final approval from Port Moody council for a large strata development. So far that has taken seven years and seven presentations to the city, but the latest attempt was sent back to another round of public hearings at the end of February. We can only hope the house owners will be paid the current value, because the benchmark price of a Port Moody detached house has increased 56.8% in the last five years alone, to $2,102,100 as of February, and is increasing by 5% per month so far this year.
Port Moody saw total sales of 87 homes in February, up 53% from a month earlier. Active listings were 97 at month end compared to 140 at that time last year and 93 at the end of January. There is just a 1-month supply of residential listings, and the sales-to-listings ratio is 73% compared to 71% in January 2022.

Port Coquitlam: Port Coquitlam has posted the highest price increases in the Tri-Cities over the past year, with the composite benchmark up 29.5% to $1,085,600 in February, while its benchmark detached house surged 35.8% to $1,542,600, still the lowest price among the three municipalities. Total units sold in February reached 108, up 40% from January, but down 122 from a year earlier. New listings were up 46% compared to January 2022, but down 11% compared to February 2021. Month’s supply of total residential listings is steady at 1 month’s supply (seller’s market conditions) and sales to listings ratio is 71% compared to 73% in January 2022 and 71% in February 2021.

Pitt Meadows: Pitt Meadows, along with Maple Ridge is expected to post the highest price increases in Metro Vancouver proper this year, according to a Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver forecast, with the composite price rising 12.5% to $1,007,000 by the end of this year. Pitt Meadows was once among the most affordable markets. But that has changed. The benchmark detached house price in Pitt Meadows in February reached a record high of $1,497,200 after a 40.4% increase from a year earlier, the highest year-over-year increase in Metro Vancouver. Meanwhile, listings are vanishing: there were just 37 active listings in February and 35 of them sold. The overall sales to listing ratio is running north of 70% and there is only a 1-month supply of homes on the market.

Maple Ridge: Maple Ridge is seeing a population boom, with the 2021 census showing the population increased to 90,990 last year, up 10.6% from 2016. This is twice as fast as the Canadian average. By comparison, Vancouver grew at a rate of 4.9%, and Surrey 9.7% in the same time frame. The housing supply is trailing population growth, though listings are rising. In February, there were 301 active listings, down from 352 last year, but up from 201 in January 2022. The sales-to-listing ratio is 62%. A seller’s market, the detached house price in February had soared 40% from a year earlier and was up 6% from January to $1,361,600. With the exception of the Sunshine Coast, this is still the lowest detached house price in Greater Vancouver.

Surrey: Surrey is expected to reach a total population of 714,300 by 2031, at which time it will have surpassed Vancouver as B.C.’s largest city. But Surrey is already the bigger player when it comes to delivering key homes and keeping housing prices relatively low. As of February 1, for instance, there were 1,005 new townhouses under construction in Surrey, compared to 134 in the city of Vancouver. The benchmark price of a Surrey townhouse is $565,000. It is $1.1 million in Vancouver. The overall composite price of a Surrey home is $836,800, compared to $1.35 million in Vancouver. This is a major reason why Surrey’s population is growing twice as fast as Vancouver’s.

Kevin Skipworth, Partner/Broker and Chief Economist at Dexter Realty