Dexter Report - Mid-September Market Report: Opportunity Knocks

It is too early to call this a shift in the market as we transition into fall but if this were like the start of a Canucks game, we’d be paying close attention as sales are being significantly outpaced by new listings so far in September.

But like with the Canucks, we are optimistic that this burst of new listings will lead to sales as buyers finally get to see some opportunity of choice creeping back in. We’re halfway through the first period, I mean month, so there is plenty of market to go in the fall. But for the first time in a while, opportunity is knocking for buyers.  And the Bank of Canada did their part, keeping its rate the same. Now we’ll see what the US Fed does next week with its rate. Indications are it will remain the same, which could help set the stage for a plateau of interest rates and begin the conversation of when they will start to edge down. 

Let’s start with listings. That’s really the story so far in September and could very well be the story of this fall market. At mid-month in Greater Vancouver, there have been 2,982 new listings, which is higher than the 2,331 new listings at mid-August and above the 2,741 new listings at the mid-point of July. It’s higher than September last year at mid-month when 2,244 new listings had come out and even higher than the mid-point of the busy September 2021 market where 2,891 new listings had come out with much higher sales.  Although last year, we saw a surge in new listings to start the month and that number in the last half slowed. That may change this year and we could see the first over 6,000 new listings months since early 2022. And without the same pace of sales, we’ll see the highest growth in active listings in the last few years. There will be over 11,000 active listings in Greater Vancouver for the first time since June 2021.

At the mid-point of September, there were 896 sales in Greater Vancouver, a decline from 1,198 sales at the mid-point of August and a decline from the 1,295 sales at the mid-point of July. But at the mid-point of September last year, there were 843 sales. A similar start compared to September last year but far off the 1,477 sales in September 2021. Interest rate increases have had their way with the market and buyers are reacting as a result. September always starts slow though as everyone transitions to work and school from a summer of travel and fun, so we should expect the second half of the month to produce more sales. Hitting 2,000 sales in September isn’t likely though, so we’ll probably see the sub 2,000 sales activity creep back for the first time since February of this year. But as more buyers see the opportunity of more choice coming back to the market with the change to take advantage of potentially less competition and an ability to negotiate, sales numbers could increase. As we said earlier, if we had more listings, we’d have more sales. It’s still early, and we’ve still got time to see the numbers of sales increase with the spectre of more listings.

 

Sales to listings ratios dropped significantly so far, to be expected with such a dramatic increase in new listings and fall in sales. So far in September, the absorption rate of new listings is only at 29% compared to 51% at the mid-point of August and 38% at the mid-point of September last year. We’ve seen an average of 55% so far this year since January, so this is something to watch as the month ends. As expected, detached had the lowest uptake on new listings as 25% of those that came on selling so far, while townhomes were a little higher at 29% and condos at 32%. As has been the case since interest rates climbed, lower price points have seen stronger buyer demand. Not surprising and this will continue through the fall.

Some areas to watch in September: Vancouver East has seen a sluggish start to the month, even when compared to last year in September. North Vancouver has seen as many new listings so far as there were in all of August, while sales are on pace to be far ahead of September last year – more listings, more sales. West Vancouver is similarly seeing as many listings so far as all of August and sitting with a 12% absorption rate. Listings are coming fast on the North Shore! Richmond is showing stronger absorption rates compared to most of Greater Vancouver, especially with townhouses. New Westminster is showing very slow growth in listings, especially townhouses where there are a third of the number of new listings so far compared to August at mid-month. Ladner and Tsawwassen are both showing the most sales a mid-month so far compared to the last 3and 4 months respectively. Perhaps the start of a shift back out to the suburbs? In Ladner so far there have been more townhouse sales than new listings and in Tsawwassen, there have been more detached sales at mid-month compared to all of August.

 

There will be much to watch as the remainder of September develops. Supply is the issue and both the City of Vancouver with their approval of all RS Zones now allowing multiplexes and the Federal Government eliminating GST on new rental projects recognizing this. While helpful, it’s not enough.

The City of Vancouver cited 500 applications in the queue for the new multiplex in single-family zones with an expectation of 150 to 200 a year – out of over 60,000 single-family lots available. A drop in the bucket. The needle may not move far with this, but it’s a start to recognizing that eliminating restrictions and taxes is what’s needed. Perhaps that will lead to less restrictions on the market. Any kind of control stifles growth, that’s what needs to be understood by all levels of government. 

 

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver 

 

876 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

1,198 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

1,295 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

843 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

1,477 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

2,982 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

2,331 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

2,741 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

2,244 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

2,897 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 10,831 compared to 10,099 at mid-month in September 2022, and 10,327 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 29% compared to 38% at mid-month in September 2022 and 51% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Vancouver West 

 

164 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

227 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

229 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

150 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

254 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

604 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

480 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

609 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

494 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

730 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 2,411 compared to 2,291 at mid-month in September 2022, and 2,354 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 27% compared to 30% at mid-month in September 2022 and 47% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Vancouver East

 

78 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

120 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

151 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

77 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

162 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

337 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

239 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

310 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

228 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

361 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 1,137 compared to 1,102 at mid-month in September 2022, and 1,081 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 23% compared to 34% at mid-month in September 2022 and 50% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

North Vancouver

 

72 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

100 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

88 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

47 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

87 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

258 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

140 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

184 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

206 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

Total active listings are at 580 compared to 597 at mid-month in September 2022, and 510 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 28% compared to 23% at mid-month in September 2022 and 71% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

West Vancouver 

 

19 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

30 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

25 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

26 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

33 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

154 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

84 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

101 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

118 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

115 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 613 compared to 576 at mid-month in September 2022, and 594 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 12% compared to 22% at mid-month in September 2022 and 36% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Richmond

 

112 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

150 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

160 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

117 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

317 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

334 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

291 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

286 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

236 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

317 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 1,248 compared to 1,234 at mid-month in September 2022, and 1,211 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 34% compared to 50% at mid-month in September 2022 and 52% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Burnaby East 

 

10 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

12 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

14 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

10 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

22 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

32 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

25 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

23 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

16 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

27 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 97 compared to 71 at mid-month in September 2022, and 92 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 31% compared to 63% at mid-month in September 2022 and 48% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Burnaby North 

 

58 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

75 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

81 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

60 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

72 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

146 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

123 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

168 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

111 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

167 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 508 compared to 435 at mid-month in September 2022, and 465 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 40% compared to 54% at mid-month in September 2022 and 61% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Burnaby South 

 

53 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

66 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

66 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

53 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

106 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

147 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

126 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

141 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

83 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

154 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 493 compared to 408 at mid-month in September 2022, and 462 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 36% compared to 64% at mid-month in September 2022 and 52% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

New Westminster 

 

33 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

55 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

69 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

25 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

56 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

96 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

96 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

112 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

96 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

123 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 306 compared to 300 at mid-month in September 2022, and 304 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 34% compared to 26% at mid-month in September 2022 and 57% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Coquitlam 

 

84 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

117 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

119 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

66 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

117 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

234 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

170 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

229 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

168 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

189 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 660 compared to 634 at mid-month in September 2022, and 611 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 36% compared to 39% at mid-month in September 2022 and 69% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Port Moody

 

18 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

32 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

51 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

31 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

36 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

52 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

49 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

65 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

57 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

57 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 185 compared to 196 at mid-month in September 2022, and 176 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 35% compared to 54% at mid-month in September 2022 and 65% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Port Coquitlam 

 

25 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

36 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

43 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

28 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

43 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

83 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

67 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

71 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

66 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

76 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 198 compared to 176 at mid-month in September 2022, and 178 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 30% compared to 42% at mid-month in September 2022 and 54% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Ladner 

 

13 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

11 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

8 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

10 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

20 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

30 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

17 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

23 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

20 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

23 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 101 compared to 95 at mid-month in September 2022, and 102 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 43% compared to 50% at mid-month in September 2022 and 65% at mid-month in August 2023.

 

Tsawwassen

 

23 units sold so far in September 2023 compared to

16 units sold at mid-month in August 2023 

19 units sold at mid-month in July 2023 

6 units sold at mid-month in September 2022

28 units sold at mid-month in September 2021

39 new listings so far in September 2023 compared to 

36 new listings at mid-month in August 2023 

34 new listings at mid-month in July 2023 

32 new listings at mid-month in September 2022

28 new listings at mid-month in September 2021

Total active listings are at 165 compared to 183 at mid-month in September 2022, and 163 at mid-month in August 2023.

Sales to listings ratio is at 59% compared to 19% at mid-month in September 2022 and 44% at mid-month in August 2023.